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scobie
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I'm an economic idiot.
So I'd like to ask anyone more knowledgeable on this kind of thing (Mr Alan, are you there?) if they have any insights on what might happen to this over the next year or so?
It's currently sitting at about 31 Baht to the A$, up from around 29 a few months ago.
Thoughts any of you Aussies?
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Attractive Thai Girls
Posted on: 4:42 am on June 9, 2005
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Fat Forty Six
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Provided there are no shocks such as SARS, bird flu jumping from human to human, terror attack in BKK, I'd expect it to stay around 30 over the next year. If it does move, my instinct is it might drift down to say 27.
F46
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Bangkok Women : Meet Sensual Bangkok Women
Posted on: 5:07 am on June 9, 2005
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Abrak
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Well Scobie I dont claim any great expertise although I did study economics at uni.
In terms of predictions I take a fairly simplistic view. Namely that Thailand is a very nice place to be and that assets are too cheap relative to other countries. In an increasing globalised economy, that situation is unlikely to last in the long term (its called purchasing power parity). Hence it would be reasonable to suppose that either the baht is going to appreciate or there is going to be domestic inflation.
My best 'guess' would be that we will see both - hence I am bullish on Thai property on the basis that either its baht value will rise (inflation) or the baht will appreciate against the dollar (or possibly both).
Still rational disequilibrium can exist for a long time.
So why dont you take currencies out of the equation and match your assets and liabilities.
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Thai Girls : Meet Sexy Thai Girls
Posted on: 5:22 am on June 9, 2005
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Broken Leg
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To be honest Scobie if someone could accurately answer your question they would be a billionaire.
But having said that the Aussie is doing very well. It is known as a commodity currency and commodities are in a bull run at the moment and have been for some time, and if china / india continue to grow this is likely to continue. Also the Aussie enjoys a good positive interest rate differential with most of the other western currencies (higher interest rates so better return on capital) which is a reflection of good economic growth.
However, china keep it's currency pegged to the US dollar which means it is artificially low. It does this so it's exports are very cheap so it can keep growing at a rapid pace to industrialise it's massive pop. This has meant that China's major export competitors the other asian nations e.g. Thailand, have also had their currencies kept low.
The US and EU want china to move to a more free exchange rate. However they've been calling for this for a long time and china will do it when they are good and ready and will not be told what to do by a bunch of foreign devils.
Anyway as Thailand has a freely floating exchange rate many economic writers have been forcasting an accrual in the baht this year and in othercurrencies such as the malaysian ringget. Basically so far it hasn't happened but this could be attributed to the tsunami, bird flu poaranoia etc. Certainly thailand's growth has come down and it has gone to a current account deficit (more imports than exports) for the first time sine 97 but again this could well be just temporary due to the factors mentioned above. Thaksin is applying economic reform and any move by china to float would also likely lead to baht accrual.
So to sum up my answer on how this will affect the baht/aussie I don't know. 
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Sexy Bangkok Girls
Posted on: 5:25 am on June 9, 2005
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Evil Penivel
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Scobie-
The exchange rate between the Aussie dlr/baht isn't likely to fluctuate enough over the next 12 months to make much of a difference EXCEPT under some very special circumstances. If you are considering moving a large amount of money in a single transfer from Australia to Thailand to buy a condo, house, business, etc., then you probably need to talk with an adviser at an Australian bank with an office in Thailand. Some very complicated calculations, involving not just the direction of the two currencies but also interest rates, property values and other factors, are needed to judge the optimal time for a transfer of A$50,000 or more.
However, if the sum is less than that, or if you are transferring/converting on a month-to-month basis, there's not much you can do that makes much of a difference. The Aussie will probably appreciate over the next 12 months, but it's impossible to judge by how much. Just leave your money in Aussies as long as you can.
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Attractive Thai Girls
Posted on: 2:17 pm on June 9, 2005
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Mr Alan
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Quote: from Broken Leg on 4:37 am on June 9, 2005
To be honest Scobie if someone could accurately answer your question they would be a billionaire.
If anyone knows who will win the NBA Finals or US Open Golf Tournament, please let me know, because I may be going to Las Vegas soon.
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Bangkok Women : Meet Beautiful Thai Girls
Posted on: 8:41 pm on June 9, 2005
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dirty guru
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The thai economies shift is responsible for that increase.
Dont forget in 2002 it was 24.7 baht
The australian dollar has held up strong against currency shifts last few months.
I wouldnt be suprised to see a weaker baht.
Tourism and spending slowing.
A down turn in american resources production
A stronger chinese growth rate.
All pushing the dollar up more.
Maybe 33 baht by xmas? ::
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Attractive Thai Girls
Posted on: 10:19 pm on June 9, 2005
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Maco88
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More bang for our aussie buck in otherwords.
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Thai Girls : Meet Active Thai Girls
Posted on: 9:42 am on June 17, 2005
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