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dagul
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Supposeably the dollar is going to rise and peak about mid-year (June - July), according to Cavuto and analysts.
I hope so...
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Thai Girls : Meet Sexy Thai Girls
Posted on: 4:17 pm on Jan. 14, 2004
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Mr Alan
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I don't think the dollar will rise until the unemployment situation in the US improves. The devaluation is designed to help with US exports. Not likely to happen until after the November election at the earliest (IMO). But the baht is not that strong, so going to LOS is not that big of a deal compared to Europe.
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Bangkok Women : Meet Sensual Bangkok Women
Posted on: 4:27 pm on Jan. 14, 2004
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eyeswideopen
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The Thai Baht is between a rock and a hard place.
As long as the Chinese currency is pegged to the dollar the Thai govt is compelled to continue intervening in the currency markets to keep the Baht from appreciating. That is why the Baht keeps getting cheaper compared to the Euro and the AUS dollar et.al. If they let it float the dollar denominated exports will become even less competitive with the big red exporting machine.
My guess is that the dollar will bounce a little bit on coordinated intervention by the central banks who just met in Europe and then the dollar will go quickly lower until it is a smoking hole in the ground.
But what do I know...
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Thai Girls : Meet Sexy Thai Girls
Posted on: 5:19 pm on Jan. 14, 2004
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Fritz
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The reason for the decline of the Dollar is the double US deficit. There is a huge budget deficit plus a gigantic trade deficit. Both deficits are ever increasing - and this is breaking the back of the Dollar now. The fact that the US interest rate is currently very low further accelerates the trend.
The only reason for the relatively slow decline so far is the fact that the Japanese, Chinese and other Asian central banks are buying Dollars like mad, in the order of several hundreds of Billion Dollars - they do this to keep the exchange rate of the Yen and Renmimbi constant. Once this support will stop or slow down, then the Dollar might go into free fall...
So it seems not a bad idea to change some Dollars into Euro, Yen or Yuan - but not just for vacations, but also in a longer term perspective...
Cheers,
Fritz
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Sexy Bangkok Girls
Posted on: 5:29 pm on Jan. 14, 2004
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eyeswideopen
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Fritz
You are correct, but remember that the Bush regime started talking down the dollar a couple of years ago in opposition the the Clinton-Rubin strong dollar policy. The Japanese have manned a series of road blocks to keep the Yen down but they are spending less and less lately. Keep in mind that because of the trade deficit the Asian exporters are sitting on huge piles of US govt debt they bought with all the surpluses. In fact, Chinese banks are obligated to hold their capital reserves in dollars. Thus they have several reasons to prop up the dollar
1 - Exports
2 - Maintain the relative value of enormous long bond positions
3 - the banking system will fail if the capital reserves diminish quickly
It all adds up to willful avoidance of taking the medicine in the hope that the US will address "the double deficits".
Fat chance
the US will envy Argentina when this is over
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Thai Women : Meet Matured Thai Women
Posted on: 5:42 pm on Jan. 14, 2004
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Mr Alan
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The US dollar is understandably weak when running budget deficits, which are a by-product of the economic downturn. The economic downturn started in 2000, while Clinton was in office, and was exacerbated by the stock market crash following the uncertainty of 2000 election results, 9/11 terrorist attacks, and the corporate accounting scandals of the Clinton years.
The medicine is being taken by the US, and the medicine is a weaker dollar. That is the cure. This will create more US jobs and make imports more expensive, thereby cutting the balance of trade deficit. The increase in US jobs will improve the economy, and increase tax revenues, thereby reducing the US budget deficit.
The Japanese yen and Chinese currency (and to a lesser extent the Thai baht) are artificially undervalued by these countries to increase their exports and jobs. The US can no longer subsidize the Asian job market this way, especially when counterfeit US products are widely distributed in Asia.
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Bangkok Women : Meet Beautiful Thai Girls
Posted on: 6:03 pm on Jan. 14, 2004
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eyeswideopen
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Well, I'm not sure whether you are right or wrong Mr. Alan, but the trade deficit was always there.
The issue with the tipping point was that overseas investors who were buying financial instruments in the US (showing up as a kind of US export) covered the fact that imports to the US have been really high for a long long time.
It seems that your analysis is straight out of some republican talking points document. I don't really want to get into a beef with you but IMHO you republicans deserve what you will get.
And I'm guessing you are not in the business are you?
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Attractive Thai Girls
Posted on: 6:29 pm on Jan. 14, 2004
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Fritz
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The weaker Dollar is not only a medicine and a cure but also a curse. Like a drug addict, the US economy depends heavily on a steady inflow of foreign capital - at least 2 Billion Dollars a day!
For a long time, most Asian, European and other investors were convinced that US stocks and bonds are safe, yield the highest dividend and return the most. But after Enron, Tyco and the burst of the stock market bubble, this confidence is shattered, and investors are slowing down the inflow of capital and sometimes even reverse it. This has been intensified by a recent insight that the US government is either not willing or not able to attack the double deficit. They are far from it, actually.
The outcome of this investment strike - a steadily declining Dollar - is also going to further accelerate the whole process since every holder of US bonds, stocks and other US assets must fear that these assets will be automatically losing more and more value in the future.
The situation of the Asian central banks is quiet interesting here. On one hand they have many reasons to keep the Dollar up, like explained before by EyesWideOpen. On the other hand, they have a strong motivation to transfer a good part of their US-Dollar based assets into more stabile currencies ASAP. It will be interesting to see how they will solve this dilemma.
The Japanese Bank e. g. seems to have started decreasing support payments for the Dollar recently...
No, the depreciation of the Dollar is not the true medicine, but rather an easy-way-out attempt. The true medicine would be to increase taxes or to cut public spending - or both. And the private consumption would have to go down as well.
But all this will certainly not happen before election day, so I guess we will see further weakening of the Dollar for the rest of this year.
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Thai Girls : Meet Active Thai Girls
Posted on: 6:30 pm on Jan. 14, 2004
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dirty guru
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The australian dollar performed best in 2003 out of all western markets. The example is that in 2002 august AN AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR was worth only 21 baht and about 53 us cents, gradually it has improved, and we are now seein 7 year highs of 77 us cents and 30.5 baht thats alot of long times and dinners on the previous years. There is no doubt the greenbacks decline is the reason
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Thai Women : Meet Matured Thai Women
Posted on: 6:40 pm on Jan. 14, 2004
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eyeswideopen
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Quote: from Fritz on 7:30 am on Jan. 15, 2004
No, the depreciation of the Dollar is not the true medicine, but rather an easy-way-out attempt. The true medicine would be to increase taxes or to cut public spending - or both. And the private consumption would have to go down as well.
I totally agree with you, and I might add that criminal corporate governance, rigged trading systems, corporate elite rapacity, corporate decision processes based on simplified assumptions and bovine perspectives should all be addressed also.
BTW the medicine I was refering to was for the Asian countries, like Fritz says, they need to transfer the dollars into a basket of other currencies and investments. Watch precious metals and property development all across Asia.
The weakness and ineptitude of the current kleptocracy in the US is obvious to all but the US population. They will understand they are in trouble soon but they will blame the wrong causes and fall in behind the dictatorship.
Ahh, morning in Bangkok...
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Attractive Thai Girls
Posted on: 6:44 pm on Jan. 14, 2004
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