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manowar
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Quote: from griffin on 7:50 pm on Feb. 2, 2005
^
not only that, but the governor of the bank of thailand openly admitted in an interview two days ago that the bank of thailand is aggressively shifting their dollar holdings into euros. 'concerned about the US foreign policy and the rising US deficit the BOT started to shift their currency holdings from dollars into euros'
as far as I am aware of only 3-5% of the total reserves of asian central banks are in euros at the moment. with the bulk being in usd.
the problem is those central banks can't convert into euros at a faster rate as the markets wouldn't bare those amounts to be shifted. another problem is that most of the export receivables from the US are in usd and due to the high numbers can't be all converted into other currencies. so those asian countries end up in forced buying of usd bonds against their export revenues even if they don't want to, simply for the fact that fully converting them would even more ruin the value of the usd.
looking at china, hk and taiwan we are talking about the 3 central banks with the highest currency reserves in the world. just imagine those central banks would only go to a neutral GDP weighted allocation of the euro, this alone will take them several years!!!
so from that point alone more weakness for the usd!!! the US deficit and the US foreign policy do add other nails into the cuffin!!!
by the way just heard that dubya is nominated for the guiness book of records being the first president ever turning a booming country with an usd 190 bln budget surplus (inhereted from bill c.) into a mess with a deficit of usd 413 bln within only 3 years!
US is still booming, thank you very much !! Both GDP and GNP have shown a steady increase from 4 years ago, The 2004 increase is 4% +.
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Thai Girls : Meet Sexy Thai Girls
Posted on: 11:16 pm on Feb. 3, 2005
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yodsaker
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One big reason is that the US is the world's largest debtor owing billions and billions offshore (the US economy requires an inflow of $2 billion A DAY to keep the government operating). The euros do not carry this large foreign debt and they are export-oriented.
Euroland also has a generous social safety net so while unemplyment may be 10% people receive benefits which means they have some money to spend.
Its useful to note than each country defines and compiles its unemployment stats using different criteria so straightforward comparisons are difficult.
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Bangkok Women : Meet Sensual Bangkok Women
Posted on: 8:47 pm on Feb. 25, 2005
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Mr Alan
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I hope you are aware that the US has unemployment insurance? Maybe not as generous as all European countries, but probably as good as many of them.
If "Euroland" is such a great exporting nation, why is unemployment so high?
Yes, one can argue about how the numbers are calculated, but in Germany unemployment is apparently at levels not seen since 1933, when economic dispair fueled the rise of Hitler.
See the complete article here:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/germany/article/0,2763,1404403,00.html
"German jobless rate soars to 70-year high
Minister admits 5m total is alarming
Luke Harding in Berlin
Thursday February 3, 2005
The Guardian
Germany's unemployment has soared to its highest level since Hitler came to power in 1933, with figures yesterday showing that more than 5 million Germans are without a job."
see link above for the rest of the article.
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Thai Girls : Meet Sexy Thai Girls
Posted on: 9:15 pm on Feb. 25, 2005
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mike239
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Quote: from Mr Alan on 9:09 am on Feb. 26, 2005
I hope you are aware that the US has unemployment insurance? Maybe not as generous as all European countries, but probably as good as many of them.
If "Euroland" is such a great exporting nation, why is unemployment so high?
Minister admits 5m total is alarming
Luke Harding in Berlin
Thursday February 3, 2005
The Guardian
Germany's unemployment has soared to its highest level since Hitler came to power in 1933, with figures yesterday showing that more than 5 million Germans are without a job."
see link above for the rest of the article.
so? how much is the shortage of USA $$$ ?
Compare this with Europe and the Euro, so then you have the answer. Ok unemploylement is big, but in numbers, but still the spending budget of Europeans shows bigger then the USA, cause we have here social insurances, for example I am unemployed but receive insurance money. So I spend and that is for the benefit of my local (small) Holland economy.
Remember Clinton visited Holland? To get some idea's how we do our things here, I do not say that this is the solution, but just as answer why the Euro is more favorite because it is really more worth, and so stronger as the USA $, probably Europe has not so much reasons to borrow so much money as the USA now does, that results in a devaluation of the currency.
Although maybe in the USA the number of jobs are bigger and a stronger growth, the amount of spending money that flows back locally in the economy is maybe not to big. And the current USA situation with borrowed money so high then numbers are not counting. The trust in the currency combined with how much money is borrowed to the USA is a factor for the strength of our Euro.
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Sexy Bangkok Girls
Posted on: 9:35 pm on Feb. 25, 2005
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Mr Alan
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Quote: from mike239 on 8:29 pm on Feb. 25, 2005
so? how much is the shortage of USA $$$ ?
Compare this with Europe and the Euro, so then you have the answer. Ok unemploylement is big, but in numbers, but still the spending budget of Europeans shows bigger then the USA, cause we have here social insurances, for example I am unemployed but receive insurance money. So I spend and that is for the benefit of my local (small) Holland economy.
Remember Clinton visited Holland? To get some idea's how we do our things here, I do not say that this is the solution, but just as answer why the Euro is more favorite because it is really more worth, and so stronger as the USA $, probably Europe has not so much reasons to borrow so much money as the USA now does, that results in a devaluation of the currency.
Although maybe in the USA the number of jobs are bigger and a stronger growth, the amount of spending money that flows back locally in the economy is maybe not to big. And the current USA situation with borrowed money so high then numbers are not counting. The trust in the currency combined with how much money is borrowed to the USA is a factor for the strength of our Euro.
Shortage of USA $$$ ?? What does that mean? Are you talking about the US budget deficit? Yes there is a deficit, caused by 9/11 and tax cuts. Deficits caused by tax cuts are not significant.
Maybe you did not hear me? The USA has unemployment insurance also. That means that people who loose their job (except those fired for cause) get benefits in the USA.
The reason for the dollar's devaluation has been discussed before. One major factor is that the US has deliberately sought a lower dollar, just like China and Japan seek lower values for their currencies. The purpose is to make US exports cheaper abroad and increase employment at home.
Another important factor is that the US dollar has always been artificially over-valued because it was the currency behind the largest economy in the world. Now that the Euro was created around an equally large economy, it can now compete as a foreign reserve currency. That has nothing to do with the inherent stability of the dollar.
There are other reasons for the dollar’s decline, including investor sentiment (speculation). Market fluctuate, including currency markets. As Yogi say, “It’s not over ‘till it’s over.”
P.S.: No, I don’t remember when Clinton visited Holland. But he did not come to lean how you do things there. Maybe he told you that, but that is only because he is the world's biggest liar and con man.
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Thai Women : Meet Matured Thai Women
Posted on: 9:54 pm on Feb. 25, 2005
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manowar
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For us punters, all we really care is if US$ remains stable vs thai bahts. Since we have no plans to visit Europe and even less desire to indulge in our hobby in Europe, we don't really care if Euro goes through the roof. Only concern I have is that since euro has also gone up against Thai bahts, we may get too many Europeans coming to LOS and thus creates more competition for us..........nah
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Bangkok Women : Meet Beautiful Thai Girls
Posted on: 1:19 am on Feb. 26, 2005
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Smegma
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Great! Another one of those stupid "We are better than you! No, you are not; we are the better ones - USA versus Europe" discussions. Again!
By the way, it is argued by many that part of the reason of the high unemployment in some places in Europe is precisely the high (and long term) benefits people get. With so much benefits, there is not much incentive to take a job that comes along if the person doesn't like it much and can still get by with what they get from the government. Many people prefer to keep waiting until the job the want comes. I agree. If benefits were reduced, more people would jump into taking jobs at a lower pay. This would reduce costs for companies directly by less personnel costs. And indirectly by perhaps less taxes as the governments wouldn't need to so much funding for their high benefits schemes.
This would also reduce immigration pressure. Now many European countries keep receiving poor immigrants to do the lowest paid jobs because their own citizens prefer to stay home watching football and drinking cheap wine thanks to the government.
On the other hand, some of those European programs are great. A couple of examples are medical benefits and the pensions for the erderly. If you are old, without family and poor, you could have less anxious more relaxed last years in Europe than in the USA.
BTW, isn't this one of those topics that should not be discussed here?
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Attractive Thai Girls
Posted on: 1:45 am on Feb. 26, 2005
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buxeda
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Mr A:
"Yes there is a deficit, caused by 9/11 and tax cuts".
and before 9/11 there was no deficit, right?
"One major factor is that the US has deliberately sought a lower dollar"
yes that is what they told after the markets took a correction.
"That has nothing to do with the inherent stability of the dollar. "
the market will let you know.
btw, european countries have budget dificits, too. greece is worse than the us.
bux
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Thai Girls : Meet Active Thai Girls
Posted on: 4:18 am on Feb. 26, 2005
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Mr Alan
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Quote: from buxeda on 3:12 am on Feb. 26, 2005
Mr A:
"Yes there is a deficit, caused by 9/11 and tax cuts".
and before 9/11 there was no deficit, right?
"One major factor is that the US has deliberately sought a lower dollar"
yes that is what they told after the markets took a correction.
"That has nothing to do with the inherent stability of the dollar. "
the market will let you know.
btw, european countries have budget dificits, too. greece is worse than the us.
bux
The US federal budget deficit dramatically increased after 9/11 as can be seen by this chart:
http://www.kowaldesign.com/budget/
This was mostly due to the stock market crash, and lower corporate profits after 9/11 and after the Internet bubble crashed. The large stock market profits and corporate profits of the years preceding 2001 yielded record high tax revenues (in the US, people and corporations pay taxes on profits, not on sales). The large Bush tax cuts have made the deficit worse, but they also provide the needed economic stimulus to get out of the recession.
A lower dollar was sought by Bush to solve the high unemployment figures in early 2002. Despite what you imply, a lower dollar is not necessarily the problem, but the solution to economic recovery in the US. I am not sure why you find that so hard to believe, since China, Japan, and others have tried to keep their currency low for many years (China's currency exchange rate is set by the government, not the markets). Here is a good discussion of the difference in policy between the Bush administration and Clinton administration with regard to dollar valuation:
http://www.inthesetimes.com/site/main/article/1879/
The US economy and the US stock market have been doing reasonably well lately. That is more important than the value of the dollar against the Euro. Most imported goods into the US are from China, and the dollar has been fixed against the Chinese currency for some time (although it might change a small amount in the near future). As Americans have proven, we don't need any French wine/cheese or German cars (we ran the French cars out of the US long ago because the were so unreliable).
Yes, other countries have a budget deficit also, and the US has had a budget deficit in most previous years since WWII. Interestingly, even thought the US budget deficit is at an all time high right now, the interest payments on that debt are about the same as during the 1990’s because of the very low interest rates now paid on US Treasury Debt instruments. (see black bars on 2nd chart at link above).
Also, most economists say that the budget deficit and interest payments should be measured as a percent of GDP, and not in absolute dollar terms. So things are not quite as bad as some seem to think. Nevertheless, the Bush administration has set a goal of cutting the deficit in half as a percent of GDP by 2008, although a lot depends on how much is needed for Iraq and Afghanistan.
I am not suggesting that everything is perfect with the US economy (or the EU economy), but things are getting better, and predictions of doom and despair are way overblown.
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Thai Women : Meet Matured Thai Women
Posted on: 5:09 am on Feb. 26, 2005
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DaffyDuck
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Quote: from manowar on 11:10 am on Feb. 4, 2005
US is still booming, thank you very much !! Both GDP and GNP have shown a steady increase from 4 years ago, The 2004 increase is 4% +.
I wouldn't hold my breath that this can be maintained over the next 24 months, and beyond, with what the Chinese ("our friends") are pulling and going to be pulling - while our leaders are blissfully oblivious to anything, as they are busy borrowing money to cover our deficits from the Chinese... has no one ever wondered what would happen if the Chinese were to stop doing that, or why America has become the handpuppet of the Chinese economy?
Boy, as much as I love America, we've really lost track in a big way of the priorities in our ideologies there...
Dr. von Quack!
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Attractive Thai Girls
Posted on: 5:17 am on Feb. 26, 2005
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