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MainMoney Matters – What's This - 30% witholding on foreign inflows ??? All Topics

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thailife
the market needed a reason to blow off and it found one.... not just in Thailand, but in Asia..... now the market will move on some real spec from the hedge funds.... no predicting this one..... the currency flows in LOS stopped on a dime and I bet the govt. will not release capital flow numbers for some time because overnight there must have been HUGE dumping of Baht by funds on the way ouyt of LOS to other markets.....


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Posted on: 12:27 pm on Dec. 19, 2006
Mel Gibson
quote from Abrak : "A condo buyer could therefore buy Bt10m of stocks sell them the next day and use the proceeds to purchase his condo.,,,,
Is this 10 million BAHT invested in a stock exchange that dropped 14% in 48 hours??? seems a risky way to try and save a few BAHT. This would seem to leave the investor open to a 14% drop in money whereas just paying the 30% thing in the first place probably only shows a loss of 3% ( 30% X 10% ) the 10% being the estimated loss on investment potentially earnt on the money held.
When you do the sums this new rule really has very little effect on true investors and does, at least partially, achieve the governments wishes in controlling unrealistic manipulation of it's currency/ share market.
An example,, KTB ( Krung Thai Bank) shares have fallen 21%, I buy in,cop the 30% thing that costs me 3% and I'm still getting the shares at 18% less than a couple of days ago. I must accept that I am somewhat locked in for 12 months, sounds ok to me.
What this ruling does stop is a Japanese person borrowing 100,000,000 yen at zero percent, entering the market ( waiting for other yen to follow) and exiting with short term gains ( market manipulation/pyramid with no foundations)
No one in SE Asia seems to be willing to say what the single BIGGEST problem is and that is the Chinese Yuan is far under valued and held that way by it's government.

All up my Jan trip is looking a little better,, just wish I had some spare cash for more KTB shares

MG


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Posted on: 3:00 pm on Dec. 19, 2006
hyperterminal
thailand goverment is concerned about the effect the rising baht is going to have on exports, and doesnt really seem to care to much for other financial markets, oh well I suppose if it gets me a few extra baht to my dollars its not all that bad! =)


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Posted on: 5:36 am on Dec. 20, 2006
MadStockBroker
Or you could buy property in KL which is better value for money. And yesterday Malaysia dropped all restrictions on foreigners buying property over $70k. And you can get 5 years visa etc etc etc


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Posted on: 10:39 pm on Dec. 20, 2006
ThaidUp
The high-end condo market was on thin ice already. This is going to be a big impact on sales. Expect to see either a recant on foreign inflows for condo purchases or defaults from developers on their loans.


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Posted on: 12:10 am on Dec. 21, 2006
DaffyDuck
so, in combination with the VOA visa regulation changes, Malaysia essentially letting anyone buy cheap real estate, and the market taking a hit -- does that mean that soon (another 30 days) there'll be fire sales on farang condos from expats leaving 'in disgust' or 'in despair' ???


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Posted on: 3:55 am on Dec. 21, 2006
Khundavid
Maybe THE BIG BOYS shorted the market before the curency control was anounced.. then bought back after the crash and made millions if not billions.. something to think about..


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Posted on: 8:48 pm on Dec. 21, 2006
Gyaos
Anyone want Thaksin Shiniwatra back? Back to 40 baht, I hope.


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Posted on: 12:05 pm on Dec. 24, 2006
Evil Penivel
This an update from a financial advisor who earns big bucks keeping "high wealth individuals" informed of what's happening so they know where to place their investments. Take it with however many grains of salt you choose.

"News wires are reporting that as of tomorrow Thailand will scrap its remaining capital controls. Given some of the backtracking since the controls were first announced, the one notable asset class that may be impacted is foreign purchases of Thai fixed income products on an unhedged basis.

Thai officials have long maintained that the capital controls would be temporary in any event and would end when the one way speculation on the currency ended. This is precisely what the Bank of Thailand Governor declared today. The ontrols have been successful. Additional details will be forthcoming.

One interesting note is that today not only did the central bank its key 1-day policy rate by 25 bp to 4.5%, but also the Finance Minister and deputy Prime Minister resigned. And just yesterday, the Thai cabinet approved three amendments to the financial laws that strengthen the independence of regulators and central bank. The governor previously reported to the Finance Minister and now will be appointed by the Senate and limited to two 5-year terms. Investor protection was also enhanced and local rules have been brought more into line with int'l standards. Lastly, the cabinet approved greater flexibility in the management and maintenance of Thailand's reserves.

As we argued previously, it is not clear that the capital controls succeed. The baht is stronger against the dollar than it was when the capital controls were first announced. The abolishment of the capital controls seem largely a facing saving gesture. Claim victory and get on with it. Indeed the near-term outlook for the baht appears favorable, with scope for the dollar to test the recent low near THB33.00. And Thai officials are likely to intervene, which they are suspected of having done earlier this month."


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Posted on: 10:17 am on Feb. 28, 2007
     

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