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eyeswideopen
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The only way it is the same is if they print the money to pay the coupons and the principal. Which is exactly what the US is going to do.
Fiat currencies are dangerous to manipulate because when the faith runs dry the "animal spirits" get discouraged. And since when did the US give a flying huanch about full employment. Putting aside for the moment obvious replies incorporating NAIRU, the political system is set up to preserve and expand the capital holdings (read relative claims on the economic output of a country) of the elites - full employment generally has the opposite effect.
Even though some might argue that the pie is getting bigger so why should anyone be against that? Answers to that objection are manifest.
AUS dollar is good investment, the raw materials produced there are in much demand by China as it continues to develop.
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Attractive Thai Girls
Posted on: 10:42 pm on Jan. 14, 2004
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fastmover
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Hate to agree with you EWO, but you are right.
Hook up with any country that is going to supply the engine of China and that countries currency/economy is going along for the ride big time.
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Bangkok Women : Meet Sensual Bangkok Women
Posted on: 10:48 pm on Jan. 14, 2004
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ThaidUp
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I think the trade deficit number is a load of crap. Most big companies are multinationals. How can they accurately track that number anyhow, off of commercial invoices, complete funny paper. They should not even keep this number it does not even seem to correlate with anything. Complete waste of accounting time.
The shoe will drop when interest rates start moving up. Then when the US government has to pay an increasing percentage of the budget on deficit financing then look out, the deficit problem will be in the limelight again, but it will be too late, the easy solution will be the money machine (print more) then inflation will come back.
The USA tried this weak dollar approach before (I think it was Carter) when the yen was over 200 something. Despite severe weakening it did very little to improve exports.
The bottom line is the labor rate and cost of doing business is too expensive in the USA. Liability lawsuits are killing the business sector with insurance overhead costs.
The answer is... well the service sector is doing great, but even that is moving offshore as recent moves of software development and support from companies like IBM and Microsoft.
Pretty soon the only service jobs available will be for nurses willing to change the diapers of the old farts that will sit around the rest home and recant about the good old days.
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Thai Girls : Meet Sexy Thai Girls
Posted on: 12:33 am on Jan. 15, 2004
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Mr Alan
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Instead of assuming that the US dollar is about to completely colapse and the US economy headed for disaster, it is more accurate to say that the Australian dollar (and other currencies) were undervalued and are now starting to recover. Here is a chart of the Australian dollar that shows it just now starting to return to its 1996 levels.
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/AD/M
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Sexy Bangkok Girls
Posted on: 12:56 am on Jan. 15, 2004
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Smegma
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Guys,... you are just like most politicians... still believing that you can "really" control exchange rates -ok sauf the Chinese. Western economies sooner or later end up paying the price of delayed adjustements if they made efforts to support artificcial values. Either high or low.
Nothing yet beats David Ricardo and Adam Smith!!! Still talking about Keynesian economics? C'mon that is passe. Keynes can make sense at times - but only for short term micro-bursts of forward pushes.
For FX, in the long run for the determination of rates of exchange we are, no matter what, subject to relative movement of interest rates, inflation rates and income levels. And this in turn are affected by many variables.
And at the end, in the long run real growth is what is needed. This comes mostly by increase efficiency in the production of goods or services. In the meantime... it is just the expectation and the perception of things that allows certain economies to live beyond their means. No matter what its problems are, the domestic and international community continue to place a lof confidence in the USA. And that is why during times when things should be worse (deficits et al), they are not because all believe in the future value of the USA itself. Rightly so... at least for now.
Still.... to this day.... nobody can consistently predict FX rates in a way that would prove statistically abnormal returns adjusted for the costs involved -EWO, I know you know what I am talking about; Alan sorry if perhaps I am loosing you here.
Thaidup, current account, current account, current acount... ok, ok, ok look at the overall balance of payments. Oh, and of course in the case of some countries (third world ones mostly), we have to take a good look also at the "errors and omisions" account (it is amazing how this little obscure sounding account can tell a lot about what "may" be going on in a country and quantify it).
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Attractive Thai Girls
Posted on: 1:05 am on Jan. 15, 2004
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ThaidUp
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Yeah, Current account, but to this day I have seen little statistical coorelation of the trade surplus/deficit number to anything. To me this number is one big error.
I happen to think that China is the biggest gold rush of the 2000's and will make the Internet bubble look like a warm-up. Most companies will lose their shirt in that country, then they will offered a counterfit copy of it for a good price. I have never seen such a grand theft of intellectual property in the world and companies are lining up at their door to serve them more on the guise of making the big killing.
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Bangkok Women : Meet Beautiful Thai Girls
Posted on: 1:20 am on Jan. 15, 2004
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Yurune
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Where can I find a Massage Parlour Girl with big tits?..I'm looking for at least a D Cup. Will she give BBBJ?
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Attractive Thai Girls
Posted on: 2:05 am on Jan. 15, 2004
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Smegma
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Yurune, thanks for the reality check. Almost forgot what it is all about? As for your question, if you do not know... then what hope is there left for the rest of us? : (
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Thai Girls : Meet Active Thai Girls
Posted on: 2:12 am on Jan. 15, 2004
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eyeswideopen
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I agree with both of you but I think you're mixing several issues (not that we are all not guilty of that).
TU I think current account info is based on BANK TRANSFERS, not invoices. Not saying there isn't alot of skullduggery with transfer pricing especially between subs of multinationals but the numbers are collected in a pretty straightforward way.
You are right about the interest rates, but its a razor's edge. The asian economies that are funding well over 40% of current outstanding US govt debt (let alone the massive exposure through Fannie and Freddie) have to recognize that a rise in interest rates will bodyslam whatever life there is in the US economy. They are screwed coming and going. The dollar continues to fall until interest rates rise, and then marking to market the current long bond portfolios will be a nightmare.
Smegs, I think my wry position with MA was in concordance, one doesn't manipulate one's own currency for very long with much effectiveness and a lack of pernicious side effects. PPP is probably the way to go to really understand relative currency values but TU's point about labor arbitrage is hard to ignore.
As for leading macro indicators leading to tradeable FX strategies I will always remember my education in the markets after grad school. The best traders wouldn't talk to you about what they had for lunch, let alone how they are doing what they do.
But back then the bid-ask was wider so they were probably, and quite securely, screwing the retail customers day after day, a surefire FX strategy if I ever saw one.
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Thai Women : Meet Matured Thai Women
Posted on: 3:06 am on Jan. 15, 2004
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ThaidUp
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Quote from EWO "As for leading macro indicators leading to tradeable FX strategies I will always remember my education in the markets after grad school. The best traders wouldn't talk to you about what they had for lunch, let alone how they are doing what they do."
___________________________________________
A few years back, I met a guy who did nothing but create trading strategies for a particular trading company. He was a big fat ass who bragged about how much money he was getting paid that he had a big custom five story house built in Iowa that had a kitchen on every floor because he did not want to far away from food.
Well anyhow he was under severe contractual restraints that he was not allowed to trade himself and the brokerage house paid him big bucks just to come up with off the wall, out of the box models.
One of them as he explained it to me involved making money when the traders go out to lunch it was amazing. Of course the money the firms were making were slivers of a percentage and involved big money, but it was very interesting on how he developed repetitive money making strategies off of human nature models instead of some black box technical analysis that never works.
Bon appetite
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Attractive Thai Girls
Posted on: 3:19 am on Jan. 15, 2004
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