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Mr Alan
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Quote: from Valetta on 11:56 pm on Sep. 30, 2008
When the bail out/support package is approved by Congress the US Treasury will simply print the requisite amount of $US,and this is inevitably going to increase inflationary pressure on the $US.With the seemingly entrenched US balance of payments deficit,and a national debt of 10 trillion dollars,a significant depreciation of the $US seems almost certain.
If they do things right, the bailout will not cost the Treasury anything and they may make a profit in the long run.
The bailout plan does not mean they are giving money away, it involves purchasing mortgage backed securities at highly discounted prices. The current financial problem stems from the fact that mortgage backed securities are almost worthless now because they are “politically” tainted and no one wants to buy them at any price, so there is no market for them. Companies that own these securities are required to write them down (take a loss on their financial statements) to the current market value (which is close to zero) even though the mortgage default rate in less than 10% on these sub-prime loans. This has a ripple effect on the companies that own them, that is causing the downward spiral, since many financial institutions have certain reserves they must keep on their balance sheet to do business.
If the US Treasury steps in and buys the mortgage backed securities at a highly discounted price (but a more than currently valued by the market), then can liquidate the assets (real estate) in an orderly manner and still make a profit.
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Thai Girls : Meet Sexy Thai Girls
Posted on: 12:49 am on Oct. 3, 2008
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Mr Alan
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Quote: from gary on 5:42 pm on Oct. 2, 2008
Shark,
I was just reading that the Thai B$ is off ~17% year-to-date.
This is second worst for Asian currencies... Only Korean Won has
lost more this year.
regards, gary
There is obviously a lot of turmoil right now in the world financial markets that affect all currecncy prices. But the baht is also affected by the political turmoil inside of Thailand, so it is sometimes hard to fugure out which factor is actually responsible for the changes in baht exchange rates.
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Bangkok Women : Meet Sensual Bangkok Women
Posted on: 12:54 am on Oct. 3, 2008
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Valetta
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Mr Alan,although in the long run the US taxpayer may get a return(or even a profit) on his US$700 billion "investment",it is likely to be several years before that can happen.At the moment a wide range of securities backed by mortgage debt are pretty much unsaleable because nobody can agree on what they are worth.The price the Fed pays for these securities will be very much a guesstimate,and much will depend on how desperate the seller is.However,as the aim of the exercise is to increase liquidity by encouraging financial institutions to lend to each other by taking these securities off their hands,the Fed cannot afford to drive too hard a bargain.The majority expert financial opinion seems to be that the bailout will not stop a recession in the USA,merely make it shorter and/or less severe.It is therefore likely to be a long tme before the market is likely to be interested in buying these securities in any significant amounts.Thus in the short and medium term I think the bailout will add to inflationary pressure on the $US which the Fed will have great difficulty in controlling as it wiill be keeping interest rates low to minimise the length and severity of the recession.However,as another contributer rightly said just how much the $US declines relative to other currencies(and in particular the Thai Baht) will depend on how their economies cope with what looks like being a global downturn.For example the $US could decline in value against the Yen,but appreciate against the Baht.It is going to be very difficult to predict actual outcomes.
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Thai Girls : Meet Sexy Thai Girls
Posted on: 6:30 pm on Oct. 3, 2008
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don5252
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Been watching the xchg rate slowly but surely improving, have no economic theory to offer, but w/bad news in every other part of the financial world this is a great trend for us U.S. sex tourists, whatever the reason, lets hope this one bright spot in the melt down keeps going
Can't help but take a swipe at those slime ball Russians whose situation seems to be rolling down hill now, hopefully their developement bubble in PTY blows up right in their face, to get them out of Fun Town would be a huge leap forward to improve the quality of life there
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Sexy Bangkok Girls
Posted on: 5:06 am on Feb. 28, 2009
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thailife
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http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=RUBTHB=X&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
Ruble verses Baht......
Yes, to Russian right now sucks. But then again, their whole economy is in shambles with oil at this price. I would not be supirsed if the default on their debt again like they did in 1999.
The dollar story is easy. Everyone looks at the U.S. as a troubled country, but economically we have a wider and deeper economy and a commodity based economy or an export based economy. (Think Russia or China).
Thialand is ready to go negative on their current account balance which in the U.S. is ot a big deal since we can sell debt on a constant basis. But let's say Thailand goes to shit. Who will but their debt? The dollar is the worlds reserve currency. Even if it wasn't, just being in the top 10 gives you an dadvantage that their is always a ready market for your debt.
Here is a on eyear chart of the dollar verses the Baht.... if this was a stock, would you buy it? You bet..... 40 Baht to the dollar will be here sooner thn you think....
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=USDTHB=X&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
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Thai Women : Meet Matured Thai Women
Posted on: 8:14 am on Feb. 28, 2009
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don5252
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Well I guess some safety net (returning to their families in the country) is better than being destitute on the streets of BKK, plus that article points out their skill in keeping some kind food production going so at least they'll have someting to eat
One economist said it's the poor who will get poorer during this time of desperation
And yes, look out for mob violence
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Thai Girls : Meet Active Thai Girls
Posted on: 12:01 pm on Feb. 28, 2009
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shark68
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I second that the Thai government- like almost every government in the world- is denying the true status of the economy...
On the other hand the report bears some truth IMHO.
If things really get worse at least there is something where people can turn to, to make a living
I like to kid my wife saying to my wife that I will go to LOS to grow crops if our economical system fails- which I personally doubt- still I also believe that we still have not seen the worst of the downturn.
The rush of the financial CDO markets in the last ten to fifteen years has produced over 1,2 trillion USD only in 2007.
In 1990 600 hedge funds operated worldwide with 10.000 today.
Total value of CDS (Credit Default Swaps) worldwide was over 58 trillion USD approximate the worldwide GDP.
I suspect there are still 'more skeletons in the closet', in case the 'financial markets' can not keep them in the closet, the billions already poured into the markets will just not do.
In this case Thailand might not be so badly off in the end...
shark68
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Thai Women : Meet Matured Thai Women
Posted on: 2:09 pm on Feb. 28, 2009
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Tyler Durdin
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The USD is plummeting the last few days, 33.5? That's ridiculous! What's going on over there?
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Attractive Thai Girls
Posted on: 2:32 pm on Sep. 17, 2009
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