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Smegma
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Darry, you are obvioulsy still hurting from your previous life. For as much unsolicited advice as you freely give, you still have not learned to move on. Reincarnation hasn't helped you much. Still stuck in a prior life? Or maybe some obsessions do not die and get passed on.
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Thai Girls : Meet Sexy Thai Girls
Posted on: 5:16 am on Mar. 9, 2005
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ABC
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IMO:
Taiwan would lose if they were invade.
And they have as much democracy as China does. Their elections are fixed, so there goes the voting system. They had riots because of the last elections where the current president staged getting shot.
And another point to keep in mind. Where is the so-called next "gold mine" country?? It's China. Everyone keeps talkin' about how much money can be made and how much western investments are pouring in to China. The rich in the U.S will not allow the U.S to go against China.
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Bangkok Women : Meet Sensual Bangkok Women
Posted on: 5:19 am on Mar. 9, 2005
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KillerFlix
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Please, please by all means do not miss any chance of turning any subject into Bush/US bashing...it is vitally important to flaunt your lack of knowledge and spew a little hatred...please send your donation to Al Queda immediately.
Home work:
Oh, please luminous social/political/economic scientists enlighten me; if there is a conflict between a wonderful, free, rich, compassionate, ever-so-perfect super-duper power (China) and a fallen thirld world horde of savage cowards (US) what would our belowed chinese Gods exactly do with those US bonds they have purchased???
Try to trade it for Euros?
Oh, wait, the Euro is measured against the $...gee weez who would have thought...
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Thai Girls : Meet Sexy Thai Girls
Posted on: 5:38 am on Mar. 9, 2005
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Hermanolobo
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Quote: from Broken Leg on 4:19 pm on Mar. 9, 2005
I was interested in the Riceman's point.
If China did try to invade what would happen, from what I understand from the Taiwanese mentality Taiwan would fight to the death with an army of around 400 000. So do any of the more militariliy knowlegable members have any thoughts on possible outcomes / scenarios on this
Back in the late 1980's my ex-missus (No.1) was teaching an Indian chap Portuguese as he had a new wife from that country. His father was retired very very senior Indian Military. He told me that his father and other senior Indian top brass were observing a Chinese assault when then the Chinese and Indians had a border skirmish in 1962? They were looking at a mountain when it turned from a mauve-brown colour to green.
From the uniforms of the Chinese Peoples Army.
A hoard of human ants !
The Indians requested a change of trousers !
Having said that I think invasion is an 'American Mind-Set' !
There are more ways to skin a cat apart from invasion and Nukes (impracticle weapon).
Sun Tzu was a Chinese I believe.
SUN TZU THE ART OF WAR STRATEGY
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Sexy Bangkok Girls
Posted on: 5:41 am on Mar. 9, 2005
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Smegma
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B-L, this is a few years old but still makes some sense and is interesting reading:
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Day 1: On the final day of his party's convention, Taiwan's President accepts the nomination of his ruling party for next presidential election and makes remarks that Beijing interprets as pledging a course toward formal independence. Hours later, China angrily announces that extensive military exercises already under way in the East China Sea will be escalated. The Taipei stock market plummets.
Day 4: Hundreds of thousands of Chinese troops move to embarkation ports in the provinces of Zhejiang, Fujian and Guangdong. In response, Taiwan's puts its armed forces on the highest level of alert and mobilizes all reserves.
Day 5: After dawn, Taiwan naval patrols in the Strait of Taiwan are fired upon by what appear to be Chinese fishing boats. They return fire. China calls it "a hostile act against ordinary Chinese people." Taiwan's president urgently asks the U.S. for arms shipments under the Taiwan Relations Act.
Day 9: China announces a naval blockade of all tankers ferrying oil to Taiwan, in an effort to create panic on the is land. But Beijing's step-by-step escalation does not break Taiwanese morale.
Day 15: After five days of air battles over the Taiwan Straits, Taiwan has lost half its air force, and China has tentative control over the air. If Taiwan's president doesn't resign from office immediately, China declares, it will start "T-day": the invasion of Taiwan.
Day 17: The invasion begins. Some 100,000 People's Liberation Army soldiers are ready to make the crossing. But lacking a sizable amphibious fleet, China relies on a jumbled flotilla of naval ships, merchant craft and fishing boats to get troops across the 145 km of choppy water. Fortified beach defenses keep the Chinese forces from securing a significant beachhead. They try a second crossing the next day and fail again. P.L.A. paratroopers, having secured key Taiwanese airports, control only parts of the island. Taiwan is in ruins - T-day is a rout.
Invasion is not a scenario China analysts find remotely probable. Despite the fact that China that China likes lobbing test missiles toward the waters north of Taiwan from time to time, rattling the general public and chilling punters at the Taiwan Stock Exchange, the two nations are not anywhere near armed conflict. China's message is plainly political, a warning to Tainwan's leaders and their people not to act too independently. The missiles are simply the mainland's way of making a bigger splash. "It's a psychological war," insists a Western military analyst in Beijing, "a curious combination of political, military and economic diplomacy. The Chinese know that driving the stock market down a few points in a few days has direct impact on public opinion." China's announcement of an underground nuclear test only makes the jitters worse, though credit-loosening measures in Taiwan helped the stock market get back on its feet.
But what if? What if China's Scud diplomacy did someday veer into war-to a military effort to force unification? Invasion scenario spinning has become a cottage industry in Taiwan. Lin Yu-fang, chairman of the graduate school of International and Strategic Studies at Taipei's Tamkang University, has written a book positing a five-stage invasion, starting with verbal attacks and military exercises, that would be canceled at any point that China achieved a clear acceptance by Taiwan of its future as part of China. In part, Lin was trying to debunk an alarmist best seller, Cheng Lang-ping's August 1995: China's Violent Invasion of Taiwan, which described an invasion on the day Taiwan's presidential election,
Taiwan's first.
Most of the scenarios are either exercises in creative political science or plain scare-mongering. But China has specifically threatened a forced unification in one of two circumstances: if Taiwan declares independence, or if it invites foreign intervention. Would "T-day" be a rollover for Beijing? After all, China has amassed 5,000 combat planes and 55 warships and has 2.9 million people in uniform. Taiwan, in contrast, has only 425,000 military personnel, 33 warships and one-tenth the planes. If China tried to take over Taiwan, would it be easy?
Military analysts say no. They conclude that in current circumstances any Chinese T-day takeover attempt would be a tough matchup-and will be even harder two years hence, after Taiwan's air force begins to receive 150 F-16s and 60 Mirage 2000-5s. "The mainland at present doesn't have the military capability to effectively invade Taiwan," asserts Robert Karniol, Bangkok-based Asia-Pacific editor of Jane's Defence Weekly. Agrees Ronald Montaperto, a senior fellow of the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the U.S. National Defense University: "I believe short of destroying the island and wreaking great havoc and loss, China could not achieve a decisive military victory at this particular time." On Taiwan, analysts recognize their military is dwarfed by Big Brother's. "But if you consider the special circumstances of island defense," says Su Jing-chang, research fellow at Taipei's Institute for National Policy Research, "our armed forces are basically sufficient to face the threat of a P.L.A. assault."
Certainly China has muscle, but much of it is pretty old, like its flock of 3,000 MiG-19s. "Their equipment is antiquated," says June Teufel Dreyer, a military expert at the University of Miami. "Maintenance is poor. Their attitude seems to be 'if it ain't broke, don't fix it.' Which is fine if it's a toaster, but if it's a helicopter, you need to do the suggested maintenance procedures." Furthermore, a lot of the muscle is unusable. China has a multitude of men and tanks, but virtually no way to get them to Taiwan. "If there were a land link and the P.L.A. could drive to Taiwan, it would all be over," says Jane's Karniol.
The Strait of Taiwan is actually three times as wide as, and significantly less navigable than, the English Channel. Likewise, the restricted airspace over the island would allow only limited waves of Chinese fighter planes-at the most 390 at a time-which Taiwan could probably combat. And China has little experience in an offshore operation requiring the coordination of air, naval and ground forces.
Far simpler are the logistics on the other side: Taiwan need only defend itself, and it has built a military machine more specifically engineered, especially since 1988, for this particular conflict. Rather than David versus Goliath, the Taiwanese prefer a metaphor closer to home. "The ideal image for Taiwan's defensive posture is a porcupine," says John Bih Chung-ho, editor in chief of the Taipei-based Defense Technology Monthly. "It looks like easy prey, but inflicts a stiff price in pain for any tiger that tries to eat it."
The balance between the two countries is a changing one, dependent on mercurial variables. Much depends on who succeeds ailing Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping and how he behaves toward Taiwan. And there is the ambiguous issue of how much support Taiwan could expect from the U.S.
If the current missile flexing ever escalated and T-day did come to pass, these are some of the crucial points of confrontation:
QUICK VICTORY: The Chinese would probably aim for a blitzkrieg pace: Deng Xiaoping is said to have envisioned a 72-hour campaign, largely to keep the U.S. from rushing to Taiwan's defense. Analysts say the idea of prolonged conflict with heavy casualties scares even the hawks in the P.L.A. Many in Taiwan think the best defense is to prevent a victory by China in the first week, thus making the economic and political cost of invasion prohibitive. "Jiang Zemin will only have a limited time, about two weeks, to show results," says retired Taiwanese general Yeh Ching-jung, "or else his grip on power will be threatened, and reaction from the U.S. and other nations may force them to abandon the campaign." China is unlikely to be able to pull off a surprise strike, given the monitoring capabilities of both Taiwan and the U.S. More probable would be a military exercise that suddenly turned into the real thing. A live-fire operation is already under way north of Taiwan, and could reach its peak in October, when Taiwan may conduct its own war games in nearby waters.
CONTROLLING THE STRAIT: To protect its assault, China would have to control first the skies above the Taiwan Strait and then its waters. China has many more planes than Taiwan, but they would need several days to overwhelm Taiwan's interceptor force with its superior aircraft and pilots. Military experts believe China could manage it with difficulty, though not if a U.S. aircraft carrier or American F-15s in Okinawa joined the action. The biggest naval imbalance is in submarines: China has 10 times Taiwan's total, though many are old.
THE ASSAULT: China doesn't have enough amphibious ships to transport troops across the Strait. It might manage a maximum of two divisions, or roughly 24,000. "That's just not enough," says Montaperto. Using the normal ratio of three attackers to every defender, it would probably need to land 300,000 troops for an invasion.
MISSILES: China has a clear technological advantage in missiles, and could arm them with a myriad of warheads-chemical or nuclear. The destructive possibilities are enormous, but in practice may not be more than a threat. Analysts view a nuclear strike as nearly impossible against fellow Chinese.
On both sides of the Strait, military buildups continue. China is modernizing in a piecemeal way: Russia has become a significant supplier, selling 26 Su-27 fighter jets in 1992. Taiwan is aggressively pursuing a technological edge, working to forge, in the words of one defense expert, "a flexible, fast and hard-hitting defense." Besides the acquisition of F-16s and Mirage 2000-5s, Taiwan is beefing up its air force's early-warning capabilities, strengthening its navy's antisubmarine and antiblockade abilities by buying LaFayette missile frigates from France and working on antimissile and antiaircraft batteries. Some analysts say that by the end of the century, Taiwan will be relatively impregnable-until the mainland catches up.
The cost of all this to both sides is huge. But with missiles splashing in the waters 150 km north of the island, it is money well spent in the eyes of most Taiwanese. The current standoff in strategic positions may be one reason why no invasion is expected now-and Taiwan has every reason to want to keep it that way.
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That final view seems to have changed recently as indicated by this article below.
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Taiwan invasion scenario not so unlikely
By TOM PLATE (a UCLA professor, founder of the Asia Pacific Media Network)
HONG KONG -- It's unimaginable that China would ever go to war against Taiwan, right? Until recently, that's what I thought.
Why would the government of China alter strategic course, veer away from its sane game plan of prioritizing economic development for 1.3 billion people and launch some kind of military attack on Taiwan, a major investor on the mainland and the democratic darling of people in the West?
The international implications for Beijing would be staggering. It would shock an onlooking world every bit as much as last century's horrific Cultural Revolution, not to mention Tiananmen Square. China again would become, for some years at least, a pariah on the international stage.
Die-hard anticommunist Republicans in America would say I told you so. The anti-free trade Democrats now blaming China for aggravating U.S. joblessness would say there go the bad guys again. Even the worshipful French would have to duck for political cover. Thus China, assuming the success of invasion, would gain Taiwan but lose the world.
And so I used to laugh when learned scholars such as UCLA's Richard Baum would refuse to rule out the possibility of such military action. How could they be so oblivious to the primacy of economics over politics in our globalized world?
But now I have come to accept the Baum possibility: that significant forces inside China marching to a drumbeat different from that of rational economists may wind up calling the shots over Taiwan, where leader of the pro-independence Democratic People's Party President Chen Shui-bian has apparently been re-elected (subject to the recount), and unleash the first shot.
Utterly fantastic? Well, let's have a chat with the likable and thoughtful Ma Lik, one of Hong Kong's 36 representatives in the National People's Congress (NPC) in Beijing, who reluctantly took over as chairman of the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment of Hong Kong following recent local elections that were disastrous for his pro-Beijing party.
Some would call Ma a Communist, except that you have to wonder if there are any Communists anymore, economically speaking, in Beijing. Even in North Korea, the faith is certainly under a bit of strain. In reality, Ma swims comfortably in the pragmatic school of Hu Jintao, China's new leader, whose policy approach takes more leaves from The Wall Street Journal playbook than from The Little Red Book.
This quiet-spoken gentleman knows Beijing well, probably spends more time there than almost anyone from Hong Kong, attends plenary NPC meetings and tells me matter-of-factly that China's preparations for war, or at least for an air and sea embargo, against Chen's Taiwan are far more developed than you may think.
"I don't agree with you that (military action) is unlikely," said Ma. "Given Chen Shui-bian, it is now actually more likely." Chen's DDP toys with the notion of formal independence and often taunts the mainland about it, was not exactly Beijing's favorite in the tumultuous March 20 election.
In Beijing's eyes, Taiwan is no different from Hong Kong, a legal part of greater China. The British agreed with the mainland on that issue when, in 1997, it handed the city over under the umbrella of a new Basic Law, which Ma helped write.
But many in Taiwan do not wish to emulate Hong Kong's legally subservient status, in theory or in practice; indeed, roughly half of them voted for Chen, who increased his popular vote tally by 25 percent from the last election.
Ma says Beijing's position is that it is not theoretically opposed to electoral democracy in Taiwan and Hong Kong so as long as the outcomes do not challenge Beijing's bottom-line sovereignty. The philosophy of the late leader Deng Xiaoping of "one country, two systems" was intended in part to finesse the problem of the politico-cultural chasm between Hong Kong (market-driven, entrepreneurial) and the mainland (then totally state-driven, collectivist) -- not detract from Beijing's political sovereignty.
This means that Hong Kong is not the ultimate boss of its own political body; China is.
For Beijing, therefore, the outcome of the disputed Taiwan election has obvious implications for the Hong Kong that Ma loves. What if his people want to elect a Hong Kong-style Chen, defiant of Beijing? That's why Ma can readily conjure up an invasion scenario to remove Chen and keep Taiwan and stop the rise of a Chen clone in Hong Kong.
Call it preemptive or preventive war (some other major power used that justification recently, despite U.N. Security Council lack of approval of the invasion).
"This is what the People's Liberation Army wants to do about Taiwan," he tells me candidly.
China fears that Chen is the lead domino in the dissolution of mother China. Thus, the PLA wants to "Saddamize" it. Under these circumstances, and with such historic stakes, it's easy to imagine why China would exercise the military option against Taiwan.
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Enough politics from me for today! Back to pussy talk.
BrotherWolf, when I saw this website you came to mind. Is this site yours? http://www.spylegend.com/
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Thai Women : Meet Matured Thai Women
Posted on: 5:48 am on Mar. 9, 2005
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Hermanolobo
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Quote: from Smegma on 5:42 pm on Mar. 9, 2005
B-L, this is a few years old but still makes some sense and is interesting reading:
========================================
Day 1: On the final day of his party's convention, Taiwan's President accepts the nomination of his ruling party for next presidential election and makes remarks that Beijing interprets as pledging a course toward formal independence. Hours later, China angrily announces that extensive military exercises already under way in the East China Sea will be escalated. The Taipei stock market plummets.
Day 4: Hundreds of thousands of Chinese troops move to embarkation ports in the provinces of Zhejiang, Fujian and Guangdong. In response, Taiwan's puts its armed forces on the highest level of alert and mobilizes all reserves.
Day 5: After dawn, Taiwan naval patrols in the Strait of Taiwan are fired upon by what appear to be Chinese fishing boats. They return fire. China calls it "a hostile act against ordinary Chinese people." Taiwan's president urgently asks the U.S. for arms shipments under the Taiwan Relations Act.
Day 9: China announces a naval blockade of all tankers ferrying oil to Taiwan, in an effort to create panic on the is land. But Beijing's step-by-step escalation does not break Taiwanese morale.
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Enough politics from me for today! Back to pussy talk.
BrotherWolf, when I saw this website you came to mind. Is this site yours? http://www.spylegend.com/
Smegito,
Very interesting. It is my view that a Chinese attempt to control is inevitable.
How they would do this is open to considerable debate.
I believe 'Days 1-9' from your posting to be the most relevant.
Perhaps a strategic form of 'Chinese Water Torture' ?
No, that site is not mine. Not one of my legends.
Maybe it belongs to Sauron as a supplementary to his BDSM as a cover ?
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Bangkok Women : Meet Beautiful Thai Girls
Posted on: 6:16 am on Mar. 9, 2005
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babanana
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Okay Guys enough.....lets get back to work now.
Btw....I wonder why the second best thing we mongers discuss here is politics?
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Attractive Thai Girls
Posted on: 6:21 am on Mar. 9, 2005
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Hermanolobo
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Quote: from babanana on 6:15 pm on Mar. 9, 2005
Btw....I wonder why the second best thing we mongers discuss here is politics?
Even the dealings with Thai girls is profoundly political !
i.e. 'saving Face' ?
"Every action is political!" - I think Groucho's brother Karl said that ?
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Thai Girls : Meet Active Thai Girls
Posted on: 6:27 am on Mar. 9, 2005
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Broken Leg
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Quote: from Hermanolobo on 5:35 pm on Mar. 9, 2005
Back in the late 1980's my ex-missus (No.1) was teaching an Indian chap Portuguese as he had a new wife from that country. His father was retired very very senior Indian Military. He told me that his father and other senior Indian top brass were observing a Chinese assault when then the Chinese and Indians had a border skirmish in 1962? They were looking at a mountain when it turned from a mauve-brown colour to green.
From the uniforms of the Chinese Peoples Army.
A hoard of human ants !
The Indians requested a change of trousers !
Having said that I think invasion is an 'American Mind-Set' !
There are more ways to skin a cat apart from invasion and Nukes (impracticle weapon).
Sun Tzu was a Chinese I believe.
SUN TZU THE ART OF WAR STRATEGY
Having travelled round Rajasthasn in India at a time of high tensions with Pakistan (when isn't there) and seeing literally thousands and thousands of Indian troops, I would have to say that they did not give me much confidence in their ability as soldiers. Not so sure why, maybe it was just the idea of seeing squaddies walking round together holding hands. 
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Thai Women : Meet Matured Thai Women
Posted on: 6:32 am on Mar. 9, 2005
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Mark Pressure
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Quote: from babanana on 6:15 am on Mar. 9, 2005
Okay Guys enough.....lets get back to work now.
Btw....I wonder why the second best thing we mongers discuss here is politics?
A bit off-topic. I was at a strip club with a co-worker and his hot, smart wife. The wife tried out to be a cheerleader for the Denver Broncos and made the top 100 but did not make the final cut. She was very intelligent and fun to talk to and she announced to me that she loved sex and politics equally. I fell in love with her and told her husband he was a very lucky man. Oh, she came from a wealthy family too. The guy hit the jackpot. Made me jealous.
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Attractive Thai Girls
Posted on: 10:02 am on Mar. 9, 2005
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