| |
magnum
|
... after the street battles and deaths in May 2010, Thailand's opposing forces backed-away and let things settle, as is there nature when things go too far... the Toxin-istas and their favored Phue Thai politicians, and the inbred ammart (elite) royalists and their Royal Thai Army and Democrat politicians backed-up before all out civil war erupted... the cause of the conflict remains and the sides as militant as ever (even moreso) with no evidence of compromise on the horizon.
... Asia Times Online published an interesting update on the current battlefield layout from which the next round of expected confrontations will erupt.
... recent events point to an effort by Phue Thai to power their way through to a Constitutional amendment that would pardon Toxin and return to him about USD1.5 billion...this, in defiance of a Constitutional Court ruling that what they are doing is unconstitutional... everybody would be absolved of all criminal wrongdoings (including the wrongful deaths in the riots) and Thailand does a 'do-over.'
... if you've long-term plans or commitments here, the following might interest you:
_____________________________________________
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/NF08Ae01.html
ASIA HAND
Back to the brink in Thailand
By Shawn W. Crispin
BANGKOK - Thailand's politics have returned to the streets, threatening new rounds of instability amid a contested parliamentary push for national reconciliation. While the return of protestors opposed to former premier Thaksin Shinawatra may on the surface signal a repeat to the run-up of the 2006 coup, the latest mobilization at least initially lacks crucial military support.
Establishment forces, including the opposition Democrat Party, the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) protest group, and a section of the royal palace, stand opposed to four national reconciliation bills they believe aim narrowly to give amnesty to, and restore the court-confiscated assets of, the self-exiled
Thaksin, who is the real power behind his sister Yingluck's Peua Thai party-led government.
An attempt last week to rush the bills' passage was upended when the Democrats violently disrupted parliament, and PAD and aligned multi-colored street protestors surrounded parliament to block Peua Thai politicians from entering the building.
At the height of the commotion, the Constitutional Court ordered parliament to suspend the bills' third reading until it could review a petition challenging the legality of a related charter change bill.
Thailand's courts have played a prominent political role since the 2006 military coup, including rulings that disbanded two Thaksin-aligned parties and dissolved two of his aligned governments, and last week's controversial order was viewed by Thaksin and Peua Thai as an attempt to usurp power. They claim the move violated separation of power provisions in the constitution and are now threatening to impeach the court's seven judges.
It all sets the stage for a potential violent showdown, including clashes between rival pro- and anti-Thaksin protest groups, when the bills are eventually reintroduced into parliament. Thaksin has bid to rally his red shirt United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) group, imploring in a fiery speech on June 2 to fight back against attempts to "steal" power from the people.
During the same speech, Thaksin said he had been "betrayed", though without saying by whom, and regretted that red shirts had been "forced to drink their own blood". He also lambasted a 2010 Supreme Court decision that confiscated US$1.4 billion of his wealth and served as a spark for the red shirt protests that paralyzed Bangkok's commercial hub and degenerated into violence in April-May 2010.
The rousing oratory harked back to earlier speeches where Thaksin urged his followers to stage a "social revolution" and marked a notably hard turn from his more conciliatory May 19 message, where he called on red shirts to put aside their grievances, including demands for justice for those killed during the April-May 2010 clashes between protestors and troops, for the sake of national reconciliation and his return from exile.
That speech alienated many red shirts, revealing more clearly lines between genuine progressives fighting for political change and those aligned with Peua Thai's and Thaksin's more narrow political and personal agendas. Cognizant of that widening split, Thaksin and other red shirt instigators are now trying to unify his fractured movement by manufacturing the threat of a possible military coup against Yingluck's elected government.
Few military observers, however, believe that a putsch is imminent. Instead, they say, Thaksin's camp and the top brass led by army commander Gen Prayuth Chan-ocha have found common cause in the four reconciliation bills' amnesty provision. Significantly, the provision would not challenge the legal basis of the 2006 coup and would absolve soldiers of responsibility for the killings of presumably scores of civilian red shirt protestors during the 2010 crackdown.
The apparent agreement comes amid a complex negotiation of carrots and sticks. A broached military reform bill aimed to give more discretionary power to civilian politicians over future personnel reshuffles, traditionally the preserve of top commanders. State prosecutors, meanwhile, have in recent weeks said they have compiled enough evidence to implicate the military in as many as 18 of 92 protest-related deaths.
"Military leaders feel they can't move forward without an amnesty. The top brass and all generals in line for promotion have blood on their hands," said one military insider who requested anonymity. "They want the reconciliation bills to work."
Significantly, earlier pressures on military interests waned in the run-up to last week's legislative push for reconciliation. So, too, did earlier widespread rumors that soldiers aligned to Thaksin were plotting a counter-coup aimed at ousting Prayuth and his top deputies to pave the way for Thaksin's safe return. Both sides have in recent months reportedly established secret "war rooms" to monitor each others' movements.
Thaksin claimed in April without naming names that at least four different assassination plots had recently been hatched against him. Analysts and diplomats believe that the former premier would not feel secure enough to return to Thailand as long as Prayuth and other staunch royalists command the top tiers of the armed forces.
While the Democrats, PAD and parts of the palace remain vehemently opposed to Thaksin's return, an emerging analysis is that the military feels it could keep closer tabs on Thaksin's movements and meetings if he was based inside rather than outside of the country. Amid these maneuvers and apparent recalculations, Prayuth twice reaffirmed his support for Yingluck's government during last week's fracas inside and outside of parliament.
That stance has exposed establishment divisions, pitting conservative groups once allied in their opposition to Thaksin into pro- and anti-amnesty camps. "The commander-in-chief of the army is with Thaksin now," said Sondhi Limthongkul, a co-leader of the PAD, soon after his group closed down parliament on June 1. "[Prayuth] is only interested in keeping his post and getting lots of budgets from the government."
Military motivations
Tacit military backing was crucial to past PAD street movements, including the 2005-06 mobilization that paved the way for Thaksin's military ouster. Many observers also saw the military's hidden hand in the PAD's week-long airport seizure in 2008 that created the chaotic backdrop for the judicial intervention that toppled Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat's Thaksin-aligned government.
One military insider believes the top brass is opposed to staging another coup because of the risks it would entail to the royal succession from King Bhumibol Adulyadej to Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn. Any military intervention in politics, the insider believes, would likely be resisted by proliferating red shirt villages, which by some estimates now account for 20,000 of 77,000 villages nationwide, concentrated in Thaksin's stronghold north and northeast regions.
Many of the villages have been indoctrinated from above specifically to protect democracy against a future military coup. One researcher who recently visited red shirt villages in northeastern provinces quoted residents as saying their areas would become bastions of resistance similar to Homs, in Syria, in the event of another military intervention. Others, the researcher said, invoked the possibility of launching a "Thai-style Arab Spring".
In recent weeks, Prayuth has held meetings with various colonels to assess the leanings of battalion commanders and glean their assessments of the security situation in the geographical areas they oversee. Rather than allowing colonels to read prepared assessments, as they have in similar meetings in the past, Prayuth reportedly led probing question-and-answer sessions that at times challenged their security assessments through his alternative sources.
The combination of a promised amnesty and the threat of a red shirt uprising that could complicate the succession appears to have influenced the top brass's position. The military insider predicts that even if the situation in Bangkok descends into chaos, with rival red and (pro-PAD) yellow shirt protestors clashing violently, the military would step in only briefly and return power to Yingluck once order was restored.
That puts the military at seeming odds with the Democrats and the PAD, which have mobilized around the notion they are fighting for rule by law and against a white-washing of Thaksin's conviction. It's a theme they argue is consistent with King Bhumibol's recent speeches to high-level judges in which he has urged them to rule with righteousness and in the national interest. They also note that earlier red shirt pleas for a royal pardon for Thaksin have been met with silence from the palace.
To be sure, both the Democrats and the PAD would benefit from an amnesty for their roles in recent political confrontations. Former prime minister and Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva, however, has stood consistently on the legal argument that troops under his command used proportionate force during the 2010 lethal crackdown.
His political and palace supporters argue that any full accounting of those events will reveal that Thaksin and his renegade military allies instigated the violence through armed attacks on security forces, including the first salvo grenade attacks launched by mysterious "black shirts" that killed foot soldiers on April 10, 2010.
Abhisit, whose supporters believe he narrowly survived a red shirt assassination attempt in April 2009, now travels in an armored car due to fears for his security, according to a person familiar with the situation. Fears of Thaksin's return and rehabilitation are also wrapped up in a post-reconciliation election, a contest in which Thaksin would potentially run and the Democrats would stand to lose substantial ground. One party member believes that Thaksin's ultimate aim is to drive the Democrats into "extinction".
Yingluck and Thaksin have so far executed an effective double game, with the former frequently bowing to royal authority while the latter moves from behind the scenes to consolidate power at the expense of establishment interests. It's still unclear if Thaksin's carrot-and-stick tactics have worked to split conservative camps, or rather they have moved apart naturally due to a divergence in their perceived medium-term corporate interests and survival.
While the Democrats and the PAD are known to be aligned closely with the palace's current Bhumibol-led configuration, some believe that connection will diminish after Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn takes the throne. The military frequently mobilizes defense of the monarchy themes to justify its outsized political role, and thus has a strong interest in the continuation of the royal institution's current central role in Thai society after the succession.
It has been lost on few observers that King Bhumibol has recently resumed a more prominent role after over two years of hospitalization. Some observers read special significance into the fact the revered monarch wore military fatigues punctuated with a Special Forces red beret during his recent historic visit to Ayutthaya province, the site of an ancient royal capital and various pivotal battles against invading foreign forces. Special Forces carried out the 2006 coup and played a key role in the 2010 suppression.
Royal family members and top advisors have announced in recent months that the monarch will soon have recuperated enough to walk again after being confined to a wheel chair and could soon leave hospital to resume residence in one of his royal palaces. It's a message that has been cheered by loyal royalists and serves perhaps as a reminder to those making preparations and cutting backroom deals that the sun has not set yet on Bhumibol's righteous reign.
Shawn W Crispin is Asia Times Online's Southeast Asia Editor.
|
Bangkok Girls : Meet Attractive Thai Girls
Posted on: 2:41 am on June 18, 2012
|
|
magnum
|
... and, a great article reporting on the movements of the Royal Thai Army to confront a worst case... Thai civil war.
... if you want to understand what is really happening in Thialand, you really have to watch the Royal Thai Army, which really controls the nation.
... the Royal Thai Army is creating three new combat divisions, two of which will be based in the heart of the Red territory (described in prioer article), and one based in the deeop south, where oppotunistic separatists would be expected to launch attacks in the event of civil war on the north.
... this is insightful analysis... the authors are former US officers specializing in Asian affairs, who both served in Thailand, and who both graduated from the Royal Thai Army's own Command and General Staff College... they would probably have remarkable resources and capability at interpreting the military mind.
... lots of reading, but fascinating stuff if you've an interest in the next round of Thai society's evolution, or devolution.
_____________________________________________
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/NE11Ae03.html
Thai army secretly plans for the worst
By Steve Sciacchitano and John Cole
Over the past four months, the Royal Thai Army (RTA) has quietly embarked on a multi-faceted, kingdom-wide program to strengthen internal unity and improve capabilities in a number of key areas. This program has been implemented without media coverage or public knowledge and builds on previous programs, some of which go back several years.
While each of the measures can be justified individually on military or bureaucratic grounds, taken together they collectively point to a design to prepare the army to defend its interests against political opponents, including presumably criminally convicted former premier Thaksin Shinawatra.
RTA challenges ahead could include potential instability provoked by Thaksin's return from self-exile as a free man through a controversial government-granted amnesty. Another would be any government attempt to curb the army's political independence, either by transferring RTA commander-in-chief General Prayuth Chan-ocha and replacing him with an officer more to Thaksin's liking at this October's annual reshuffle, or longer term through a significant reduction of its budget.
External challenges could also take the form of more heavy flooding on a scale of last year's disaster, challenging the army to live up to the popular expectations built through its professional handling of last year's crisis or face a grassroots backlash. It must also look to ensure stability during the royal succession when the 84-year-old King Bhumibol Adulyadej finally passes from the scene and heir apparent Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn accedes to the throne.
The RTA's internal strengthening program can be divided into two broad areas: personnel actions and force structure and command expansions. While the most dramatic development is the planned activation of two new combat divisions - one each in the north and northeast, the heartland of the army's Thaksin-aligned "red shirt" opponents - perhaps the most revealing was a seemingly innocuous Prayuth-ordered personnel action.
In early February, Prayuth had a specially designed test administered to all serving battalion commanders. Thai battalions vary in strength from roughly 500 to 800 soldiers, depending on the type of unit, and there are approximately 210 colonels and lieutenant-colonels commanding battalions kingdom-wide. Although billed as a test, the 17-page document was in fact more of a detailed survey soliciting the hand-written views of commanders regarding the most difficult issues now facing the army.
To call this move unusual would be an understatement. In past years, RTA senior generals would have regarded battalion commanders as too junior to merit such interest. As field tested in the September 2006 coup that overthrew Thaksin's administration, the importance of battalion commanders has risen significantly, particularly in light of the still polarized political situation.
While these commanders may be junior when compared to the likes of Prayuth, to the soldiers and junior officers under their direct command they are the ultimate authority, senior enough to be rendered almost unquestioning obedience, yet close enough to their rank and file soldiers to know many of them by name.
In the event of a future coup or counter-coup, or even a civil war, battalion commanders will be the critical key links in the chain of command in getting units to move out of their garrisons and onto the streets, or conversely by issuing orders not to mobilize. RTA officers organize and ally themselves by their respective Chulachomklao Royal Military Academy (CRMA) graduating class.
History shows specific classes tend to rise or stagnate together, meaning competition among CRMA classes is a significant factor in determining and further defining an individual officer's loyalty. At any given time, the RTA's various levels of command are usually dominated by two or three consecutive CRMA classes, which may be allies or rivals for influence. For example, Prep Class 10 officers, known for their allegiance to classmate Thaksin, were systematically sidelined by coup-makers after the 2006 putsch.
With this in mind, Prayuth's survey can be interpreted as an attempt to establish and maintain personal relationships with this key group of officers, as well as a bid to identify those officers who might be unhappy with the army's leaders or policies. Assuming officers filled out the test honestly, the results would show who might be inclined to join with the known pro-Thaksin faction within the military.
Insiders have reported that the results have been favorable to Prayuth's leadership and that several battalion commanders have been called to Bangkok to meet individually with the commander-in-chief to share and discuss their respective ideas. The most important result of this innovative testing/survey program seems to have been to strengthen support for Prayuth with the battalion commanders and thereby further unifying the army under his command.
Class consciousness
In a related move, Prayuth has also acted to broaden his base of support within the army by supporting the promotion and assignment to key positions of officers outside of his own prep class. This is significant because there had been a serious degree of dissatisfaction within the RTA officer corps over Prayuth's perceived favoritism in promoting his own Class 12 officers at previous reshuffles.
While this shift is no doubt due in part to the advancing age of Prayuth's classmates, many of whom are fast approaching mandatory retirement, Prayuth apparently made a conscious change in his management approach.
The recent promotion of two officers from Class 13, a younger academy class, to the commanderships of the powerful 2nd and 3rd Army Regions is a clear example of Prayuth's changed approach. The 4th Army Region Commander was already a Class 13 member. Insiders expect the trend to continue at the upcoming annual military promotion and reassignment list, usually announced in September with an effective date of October 1, with the first Class 14 officer to be promoted to four star level and given an assignment to one of the five key positions in the RTA hierarchy.
That officer, Lieutenant General Udomchai Sitabut, widely viewed as a professional officer currently assigned as commander of the critical 1st Army Region, is believed to be on track to replace Prayuth as RTA commander-in-chief upon his mandatory retirement in September 2014. Udomchai is also a 21st Infantry Regiment alum who as a Special Colonel succeeded Prayuth as the commander of that prestigious unit. He is also a recipient of the Thai Medal of Honor and is known to be close to the royal family.
At the same time, the RTA is quietly expanding its force structure. In a program approved several years ago, the RTA has started to activate three new combat divisions, two of which are to be situated in Thaksin's geographical stronghold. The new 7th Infantry Division has begun forming in the country's north under the 3rd Army Region, with a new headquarters located at Mae Rim on the eastern side of Chiang Mai city.
In northeastern Thailand, in the 2nd Army Region, the new 3rd Cavalry Division is being activated with its headquarters in Khon Kaen. While neither of these two divisions is fully formed yet, both have major combat elements already assigned and would be capable of deploying several thousand soldiers in the event of an emergency.
A third new division, the 15th Infantry Division, has been activated in the country's South under the 4th Army Region. The decision to activate this division was made several years ago and was officially classified to keep the details secret until the unit was fully formed. The 15th has now been almost fully fleshed out, with new three infantry regiments each with three infantry battalions.
The entire division is being based in the three southernmost provinces of Narathiwat, Yala, and Pattani where a Muslim insurgency is active. The 4th Army Region now has two line infantry divisions assigned and approximately nine new paramilitary units with regular army cadre, known locally as Taharn Phran, each comprised of six to eight 140-man companies are also planned to be activated and permanently based in the deep south.
The 15th Infantry Division was activated for clear military reasons, but even here there are political implications. For the past seven years, the RTA has reinforced its units in the south by rotating for periods of one year six combat battalions drawn from the 1st (Central), 2nd (Northeast), and 3rd (North) Army Regions into the southern provinces.
With the formation of the 15th Infantry Division well underway, Prayuth secretly decided in January to move forward to this July, instead of July 2013, the date when these rotations would cease, a full year earlier than originally planned. If this decision holds, it means that the divisions which are based in and around Bangkok, which earlier had units deployed to the south, will now be back at full strength and will increase the force Prayuth could deploy in the capital in the event of a political crisis.
However, RTA staff insiders say that the recent series of coordinated insurgent attacks in the south, as well as intelligence that indicates a steady rise in the insurgency's capabilities, have caused Prayuth to have second thoughts about fully discontinuing the rotational program.
High water marks
The RTA is also making serious detailed plans for dealing with another season of above average rainfall and the potential for more massive flooding. The RTA Command and General Staff College last month convened a two-week closed symposium where uniformed officers and sergeants from squad leader up to regimental commanders of units directly involved in the flood relief effort last year were ordered to participate.
Armed with meteorological evidence that points to the potential for a recurrence of last year's floods, the army has put together an updated operations plan based on lessons learned from last year’s relief operation and participating units have already received orders to prepare.
Equipment such as small inflatable boats and individual life preservers which will make participating units more effective in flood relief operations have also been procured and prepositioned at designated units, particularly with infantry regiments and their line battalions.
Selected RTA engineer units in the Bangkok region have already been ordered to begin work on flood mitigation efforts, such as cleaning canals, with at least two units having recently received special major budget increases for this mission from the royal family.
Prayuth is also bidding to build support within the army military education system, which collectively has been the most distrustful of his tenure. On this past April's mid-year reshuffle list, Prayuth approved the promotion of Major General Pawpol Manerrin to Lieutenant General and reassigned him from deputy superintendent to the new superintendent of the Chulachomklao Royal Military Academy (CRMA).
Never in recent memory has the deputy at CRMA been promoted to superintendent, especially one from a very junior class four years younger than the officer he replaced.
According to insiders, the selection of Pawpol signals the increased importance Prayuth is now paying to education and training. Other changes are expected to be made in the months ahead. The most significant of these is a recently approved plan to expand the army training command to be commanded by a four-star general with a much larger budget and wider responsibilities, including over all reserve military training at civilian schools throughout the kingdom.
Each of these measures can be explained and justified on their own terms. An expansion of the number of divisions is on the surface indicative of an increased personnel and procurement budget. More emphasis on professional education improves the readiness and capability of the army. More forces deployed to the South could improve security there (although if not well trained it could worsen the situation). Preparing for more flood relief efforts requires no explanation considering the scale and cost of last year's disaster.
Taken together, however, these moves constitute a massive, self-initiated and coordinated program whose elements are tied together by a drive to increase the internal cohesion and loyalty of the army. While it's difficult to predict exactly what this multi-faceted program will mean for stability in the months ahead, one thing is certain: Prayuth's RTA is clearly preparing for any future contingency it may face and bolstering its ability to act on its own initiative in a potential political crisis.
While Prayuth has until now been successful in keeping these measures largely secret from the public and press, he and his staff were always aware that Thaksin would eventually learn of them, given his known inside contacts in the RTA. At the same time, the secret moves could be interpreted as an indirect warning to Thaksin of Prayuth's determination to defend and forward the army's interests.
Steve Sciacchitano and John Cole spent several years in Thailand while on active duty with the US Army. Both were trained as Foreign Area Officers specializing in Southeast Asia and graduated from the Royal Thai Army's Command and General Staff College. They are now retired and the views expressed here are their own.
|
Bangkok Women : Meet Sensual Bangkok Women
Posted on: 2:59 am on June 18, 2012
|
|
koolbreez
|
This coupled with redshirt leader Dr. Weng, and his wife, UDD chairwoman Theda's recent call for counter demonstrations to any rally called by the Democrats, with the intention of exacting revenge on them, fits with the renewed timeframe of rotation stoppage.
The civil war is closer than most think, and has just in the last few days been pushed up with direct calls for violence against rallies the Democrats might hold in the future.
With the 80th anniversary of the overthow of the absolute monarchy in 1932 on June 24th, the redshirts are attempting to align themselves with the occasion, justifying any violent actions they take as being in the name of the fight for Democracy.
Their view is aligned with the notion that all the people should accept what the party does because the majority rules, uncondtionally, with no decension. Under the principle of majority rule there is no need for a second political party, either now, or in the future.
Think in terms of the Lao Peoples Democratic Republic, or The Democratic People's Republic of (North) Korea. Under Thaksin's version of Democracy there is no other political parties needed.
There is a reason "red" is his political color, and all his friends are communist, or single party government leaders. The only thing I see as bringing Thailand together in the near future is if Thaksin becomes a martyr.
The only thing beneficial out of all this will be the extreme devaluation of the baht.
|
Thai Girls : Meet Sexy Thai Girls
Posted on: 1:13 pm on June 18, 2012
|
|
DaffyDuck
|
We're all hoping for devaluation of the Baht, but that seems to be the only thing these f***ers are doing right - keeping the Baht at a decent (for them) value.
Of course, devaluation would be good for exports...
|
Bangkok Girls : Meet Sexy Bangkok Girls
Posted on: 4:36 pm on June 18, 2012
|
|
cheapcharlie
|
Thailand is not for nothing the only or one of the few country s in se asia never to have been colonised.
After being married to a thai for 12 years I can safely say that rational thinking is not part of the make up.
if one is angry it does nor care where it is or who is present so why would they care about destroying a country. I hope its different with the higher classes but im not taking any chances in the future the word nut job or unhinged springs to mind.
|
Bangkok Girls : Meet Attractive Thai Girls
Posted on: 4:55 pm on June 18, 2012
|
|
Meatywsg
|
The reds won't rise up, most are old woman and men, nothing to worry about. The black shirts...well yes okay, but more a menace than anything and very small in numbers, under 100.
Most of this stuff, IMHO is simple chest beating to keep each disillusioned side busy, and not thinking.
Civil war was the cry when the reds kicked off last time, yeah ok, a few town halls in the NE were burned, and a few buildings here, but did we see the MRT wrecked, or full on gun battles ?
And it was all very half hearted uprising by the masses, a few core members were the ones doing the real damage, and again very small in numbers. Will your average red shirt be so quick to do bad in light of the fact that those that did last time are still rotting in prison, forgotten about ?
And as for the Baht, well lets be honest, I only see it getting stronger, logically it should have had a hit already with everything that's happened, but it remains strong, or at least the flip currencies remain weak.
Don't forget how quickly the PTP and reds backed out of the charter amendments over the last few weeks. If they had the means and the true stupidity they would have pushed on, but they didn't, they pulled back, and to be honest I see that as the continuing theme for Thailand, constant chest beating, situation seemingly escalating thanks to the wild media, but before chaos everything/one backs off.
No, IMHO its business as usual, a few flash in the pans, but nothing to stockpile tinned food over.
Now, if you'd have told me the US were given U-Tapao to station troops that might assist the government should things get bad, I might of believed you...haha!
|
Bangkok Women : Meet Beautiful Thai Girls
Posted on: 1:39 am on June 19, 2012
|
|
magnum
|
Quote: from Meatywsg on 1:39 pm on June 19, 2012
No, IMHO its business as usual, a few flash in the pans, but nothing to stockpile tinned food over.
... I don't know, Meatywsg... I respect that you reside here and have been around, and I might agree with you were this pre-2000.
... but, this is a new age in Thailand... 19 million Thai voters galvanized about a brand new political party (twice resurrected) whose purpose is to oppose parties that are all traditionally controlled by Thai elites (never mind Toxin's malevolent abuse of their trust)... in May 2010, they violently struck back in the streets, as has not happened since the Communist insurgency in the 60's and 70's... the inbred monarchists are in decline... history does not favor them.
... fast-forwarding 50 years, the tools at their disposal are a game changer... communications, popular media, public relations, free access to information beyomd the Thai censors... military grade weapons and trained military tacticians and strategists... the Royal Thai Army now faces an opposition capable of hurting them... no more can they easly roll-over a rag-tag civilian mob... especially if the battle is taken up-country.
... the prai have found a voice and taste of power that can give them control of their lives for the first time in this nation's long feudal history... I don't see them just giving that up, and the traditional Thai 'middle road' is nowhere to be seen... this seems as a fundamentally new social awareness... and the genie cannot be put back in the bottle.
... I believe this has all the potential of the Arab Spring.
|
Bangkok Girls : Meet Attractive Thai Girls
Posted on: 3:38 am on June 19, 2012
|
|
Meatywsg
|
For sure Magnum I agree with all of your reasoning that you mention above, but i'm just not convinced in the individual man on the street taking it to the next level.
I may well be wrong, it happens sometimes (hehe!), but I guess for everyones sake I hope i'm not !
|
Thai Girls : Meet Active Thai Girls
Posted on: 4:24 am on June 19, 2012
|
|
| |
|
