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magnum
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... next week, I will wire into Thailand AUD 30,000, to be converted to THB before end of 2Q2012.
... I need to decide if I should be holding AUD here until converting at approximately mid-year, or convert to THB immediately upon receipt.
... any of you Aussies have quick references through 2Q2012 on:
(i) Forward exchange rates, or trading ranges on AUD-THB; or,
(ii) Current projections on Aussie policy rates, or their ranges.
... which direction (not in absolute numbers, but relative terms only) is the AUD-THB exchange rate likely to go over the next 3-4 months?
Thanks!
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Thai Girls : Meet Sexy Thai Girls
Posted on: 3:44 am on Mar. 24, 2012
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dirty guru
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Lower.
But not by much.
The slower Chinese demand will affect resources.
The economy in America will continue to improve.
This affects the dollar.
However the traders dumping the dollar for the American correctly also are pleased to see Australia make a deal with the Chinese on the yuan as a trade currency...
Front page financial review Friday.
This may signal to investors a longer term prospect...but the short term we are likely to seethe dollar fall further as it has recently.
It will Hoover about parity with the UsA or slightly above.
But by Xmas recommended a climb as many mining projects go on line and China fears ease.
Your immediate correction means the baht exchange will not improve, but fall til late August....but not sharply.
It will be above 30 baht but no higher one imagines.
A shift towards a republican win forecast would see the Aussie rise..
Obama though and good American numbers in the economy will continue to push the Aussie lower
Basically downward pressure is forecast.....next 6 months won't be higher trends.
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Sexy Bangkok Girls
Posted on: 6:35 am on Mar. 24, 2012
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Valetta
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Magnum anyone who says they can predict foreign exchange rates with any degree of accuracy,even over 3-4 months,is deluding themselves.
Threats of sovereign default in Europe,variations in US employment/GDP rates,variations in China`s growth rates,changes in interest rates in Australia,variations in Australia`s rates of employment or inflation,or any severe natural disaster affecting a major Australian trading partner such as the Japanese tsunami will all have an impact on the A$,and none of these events,even in isolation, can be predicted exactly.Taken altogether,and factoring in other variables not mentioned above,you can appreciate why predicting currency rates can never be any more than an educated guess.
Until about 6-9 months ago the A$ was far more liable to substantial short term changes in its exchange rate dependent largely how the above mentioned factors affected commodity prices, particularly iron ore and coal.However,reductions by rating agencies of sovereign debt in both Europe and USA has left Australia as one of the few nations with an AAA credit rating,and this has lead to a very much increased demand for A$ government bonds.This increased demand has resulted not only in a higher A$,but in a much more stable A$ less liable to fluctuations in commodity prices.
My best guess is that the A$ in the next 3-4 months will drift sideways assuming,as is likely, that European sovereign debt problems remain contained,the USA`s economy continues to strengthen,the Reserve Bank keeps Australian interest rates on hold, and there is no further reduction in the projected rate of China`s growth which was the cause of the A$`s recent fall from the high 32s to just under 32 baht.
As at the time of this post the A$ was buying about 32.15 baht,and I think it will remain between 32 and 32.5 in the period of interest to Magnum, and for reasons of certainty(because exchange rates can never be certain) I would change my A$ into baht sooner rather than later.
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Thai Women : Meet Matured Thai Women
Posted on: 9:57 pm on Mar. 25, 2012
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dirty guru
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Ok let's see how this pans out.
I say it will fall to 30 baht by may 31st. See who gets it right.
Bye the way unemployment in Australia will not go beyond 6%
I could tear the other points apart.....but it's pointless.
Let's just realise the interest rates won't figure too hard....our banks are tightly regulated.
The biggest drop in the Aussie $ was purely connected to a mining chief statement.....on thursday
Europe doesn't impact us as much as china.
And the reality is Europe is not going down the next 6 months.
As for natural events we sell so much shit to China the recent mega floods had nil affect.
Australia as all overseas investors know is largely a two speed economy.
I am not bragging but it needs to be said.
We're you to have invested American dollars in January 2000
Now you would have a 110% return....
No one has magic balls......but I warn magmun the baht exchange will drop
Mainly because of speculative unease in resources nothing else
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Bangkok Women : Meet Beautiful Thai Girls
Posted on: 12:41 am on Mar. 26, 2012
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magnum
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Quote: from Valetta on 9:57 am on Mar. 26, 2012
Magnum anyone who says they can predict foreign exchange rates with any degree of accuracy,even over 3-4 months,is deluding themselves.
... that's why I opened the bore to a more reasonable estimate of TREND... ("which direction (not in absolute numbers, but relative terms only) is the AUD-THB exchange rate likely to go over the next 3-4 months?")
... still, thanks for your prediction.
... I will convert AUD to THB, based more on the likely stability of Aussie policy rate and the somewhat trending Thai policy rate, than the legion of impossible to predict exogenous influences.
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Attractive Thai Girls
Posted on: 1:17 am on Mar. 26, 2012
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dirty guru
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Magmun....Aussie dollar is on way down..
Only the most basic financial guys don't know this
f*** it's a mining economy.
It's all China...
Low interest rates...triple AAA....low debt...trillion investment 22 million pop go figure.
But you will see 30 baht soon and I will let you know so here,........f*** I drive boats...and you guys ask the dick in pussy questions?
Seriously?
Long term Aussie good but market correction real soon.....
And when you ever see Chinese demand slow...expect to see falls.
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Thai Girls : Meet Active Thai Girls
Posted on: 4:07 am on Mar. 26, 2012
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Buai
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The Aussie dollar over the next 3-4 months will go up and it will go down. Not necessarily in that order and not necessarily by the same magnitude.
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Thai Women : Meet Matured Thai Women
Posted on: 6:04 pm on Mar. 26, 2012
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dirty guru
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Ok we all know it moves daily....but the trend is down over all.
Compare say $1.10 a few months back to now.
And the June/ July position which will see it lower still
I mean every financial advisor in Australia is saying exactly that
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Attractive Thai Girls
Posted on: 6:15 pm on Mar. 26, 2012
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