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Hermanolobo
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koolbreez,
Good...
This is the sort of reply I was looking for.
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Thai Girls : Meet Sexy Thai Girls
Posted on: 6:58 am on Sep. 23, 2010
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Kaymanx
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That implies that if his successor does not lower the interest rate, the current head of the central bank would lose big time by taking dollars instead of baht. Why would he want to take that risk ? Unless there is some sort of hidden promise ? TiT ? But with current Thai politics in a state of flux, how good would any promise be ? On the other hand, if the political situation does indeed spiral downward, it would take the baht down with it....
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Bangkok Women : Meet Sensual Bangkok Women
Posted on: 9:40 am on Sep. 23, 2010
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thailife
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I believe nothing a Thai person tells me. A civil servant in Thailand, no matter what position, simply does not earn that much money, including when they retire.
Why on earth would someone force the baht to appreciate so they could take in dollars when they could simply go long the dollar against the baht?
Just doesn't pass the smell test.
How about this... simple economics 101.....
Back in the 90's most trade and loans were actually made in dollars... when the baht started to weaken, Thais had to pay back those loans and traded in appreciated dollars. So if they were working off a 15% margin and the baht depreciated 20%, they actually lost 5%. That is EXACTLY what happened.... then it spiraled out of control when currency traders figured out how vulnerable the Baht was. Then of course you had a flight of capital out of the Baht and into other currency's, just making the problem worse.
Since then, The Thai govt. put into place currency control and started floating their own Baht denominated debt and also started doing trade in Baht or other curreny's rather than in dollars.
And look what happened... stability. Actually the Baht is probably where it should be. The only knock is that it is a thinly traded currency, thereby opening it up to manipulation. But all in all, with its large trade surplus, it should appreciate against the dollar. Relative interest rates also play a role.
But to predict a currency is far more difficult than other financial models.
There will be a big event in the future and we will se how things go. One thing is for sure, all currency's trade in a cycle. Look fo rthe Baht at some point to weaken but it will take a total collapse like in 97 to see previous levels.
Just my opinion, God knows I have been wrong before.
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Thai Girls : Meet Sexy Thai Girls
Posted on: 10:42 am on Sep. 23, 2010
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oreally
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The strong Baht?
What? Is it back up to 42 per USD?
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Sexy Bangkok Girls
Posted on: 11:09 am on Sep. 23, 2010
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thailife
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no, down to almost 30...... I think you have it backwards..... 10 years ago you could get 46 Baht for every dollar, now you get 30 Baht for every dollar.
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Thai Women : Meet Matured Thai Women
Posted on: 11:16 am on Sep. 23, 2010
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oreally
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Yes, hello again thailife, thanks.
I was just trying to find a little "humor" in it, I suppose.
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Bangkok Women : Meet Beautiful Thai Girls
Posted on: 4:26 pm on Sep. 23, 2010
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China Sailor
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thailife is right in that predicting the Forex markets is like trying to tell the future by reading chicken bones.
While securities are driven by free markets, currency is NOT!
Currency is run by the politics of the Index Currency for your region, here in Asia it is USD. Now in the US it is the current policy to keep the USD cheap to encourage the sale of the bonds needed to finance the Dem's Stimulus Package. An addition benefit of this policy is that it makes imports more expensive and keeps consumption at home.
So a country has two choices.... first is that they can peg their currency to the USD like the RMB/HKD. This keeps the products they make cheap but it increases import costs for goods purchased overseas. If you have a import based economy (like Singapore) that is a bad thing.
The other choice is to float your currency against the USD basing your exchange rate on the market-basket of currencies of your major trading partners, most Asian currencies follow this route. This allows price stability in the domestic market (as thailife observed) but it will affect the import/export market's price stability. Setting the float becomes a balancing act between supporting business activity growth and keeping domestic inflation at bay.
For the expat paid in USD, a pegged currency such as RM/HKD provides the most advantage as income is not affected by the politics of the international market. However reality is that most countries float their currencies so the best bet is to hedge your savings by maintaining them in a mix of pegged/index currencies and floating currencies.
In my case I am usually paid in either USD or SGD, therefore my currencies are in SGD, USD, and GBP. I hedge my SGD by selling USD when it is strong. Then I hedge a weak USD by buying GBP as the SGD is less affected by fluctuations in the GBP and it helps on rare occasions that I am being paid from the EU/UK. Finally I buy SGD based on my projected cash requirements... keep in mind though YMMV, so it is your call on what mix you maintain...
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Attractive Thai Girls
Posted on: 9:24 pm on Sep. 23, 2010
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snpark
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just buy stock in apple, and retire young like daffy duck
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Thai Girls : Meet Active Thai Girls
Posted on: 10:53 pm on Sep. 23, 2010
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tezza
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Quote: from thailife on 11:16 pm on Sep. 23, 2010
there is no reference to pissing in your last 2 posts, are you feeling okay?
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Thai Women : Meet Matured Thai Women
Posted on: 12:08 am on Sep. 24, 2010
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tvn
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Well, for expats like us, it's a pay cut. Also, the company reduce the spending allowances b/c they compare the cost of living back home in US...and the cost of living in the US is lower now....so double pay cut.
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Attractive Thai Girls
Posted on: 12:40 am on Sep. 24, 2010
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