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MainAnything else? – The strong Baht All Topics

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Hermanolobo
To quote a bargirl :" China, Korea, India people no good. Buy coke from 7-11 an' just walk around all night go looky-looky. People India, kee ne-ow.
I like Yankee,British Gereman, them spend munee!"


Thai Girls : Meet Sexy Thai Girls
Posted on: 7:46 am on Oct. 22, 2010
Shredded Wheat
You're not wrong there Herman. All those bargirls have no problem absorbing foreign denominated capital.


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Posted on: 8:55 am on Oct. 22, 2010
Valetta
QQ and CS,I am sure Thailand would very much prefer the baht not to have appreciated as much as it has, particularly against the $US because, in common with most commodity exporters, contracts are written in $US,so if the $US falls against the baht Thailand receives less baht when the $US it is paid for its rice are converted into baht.

A higher baht also deters intending tourists who,along with rice,are Thailand's biggest sources of foreign currency.

Any person or company wishing to invest in Thailand would prefer a low baht because the money they invest buys more in Thailand.

I can recall PM Abhasit,about 3 months ago, asking the central bank to investigate what could be done to weaken the baht, because Thai exporters were finding it increasingly difficult to compete on world markets.

The problem Thailand faces is that countries, whose currencies have not already been devalued,are also searching for ways to weaken their currencies to increase their competitive advantage.

Thailand in common with most of South East Asia was left virtually unaffected by the GFC.Its banks, unlike those in Europe,and the USA,maintained strong balance sheets,helped by the reforms which were made after the Asian financial crisis which began in Thailand in about 2001.

Consequently Thailand is seen as a relatively attractive place in which to invest,and this investment,along with the weakness of the pound,euro,and $US, is causing the increase in the value of the baht.

But inevitably there will come a time when the increasing value of the baht will discourage investment in Thailand,and this will result in a fall in the baht, the size of which will largely depend on the extent of the recovery in the US, and European economies.


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Posted on: 1:01 am on Oct. 23, 2010
dirty guru
To quote a bargirl :" China, Korea, India people no good. Buy coke from 7-11 an' just walk around all night go looky-looky. People India, kee ne-ow.
I like Yankee,British Gereman, them spend munee!"

---------------
Classic


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Posted on: 1:27 am on Oct. 23, 2010
Kaymanx

Quote: from Valetta on 1:01 pm on Oct. 23, 2010

Any person or company wishing to invest in Thailand would prefer a low baht because the money they invest buys more in Thailand.


Good points by Valetta but the above statement could create some confusion. It strikes me that a foreign investor anywhere in the world would actually welcome (rather than abhor) a strengthening local currency in the target country.

A rising local currency simply means that foreigners who invest in the Thai Baht also gain. Other investments also appreciate in value thereby fetching the investor greater returns. Example : a foreign investor converted US Dollar into Thai Baht at 35 baht to the dollar say in 2006. Today if that investor decides to take back that dollar from Thailand and go home he/she has to pay a little over 28 baht to buy back that dollar. In other words, the 35 baht invested (or purchased for $1) in 2006 would fetch the investor around US$1.25 today. This is only the monetary gain. This does not take into account any business profits made by the investor from that investment (which should generally be good since the Thai economy has all along stayed strong).

This is the typical gush of money that Asian economies experienced during the last bull run in 2006-07, when rising local currencies (relative to the US dollar) fed booming stock markets with still more foreign money. American moneybags simply found this a handsome way to grow their money in double quick time. Bring in the dollar, at whatever exchange rate prevails, invest big time in the stock market, boost both stock indices and the local currency like crazy. Then when they sold, the profits were dramatic : not only had their investments in the markets appreciated sharply, they also got more dollars back for the local currency than what they had paid to buy the currency when they came in.

Sure, there are things to consider like the crash that happened when they pulled out that sent markets and currencies into a tailspin, but the investors were net gainers. Which is why there is a second coming now. Currency appreciation in the target market is therefore a good thing for foreign investors.


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Posted on: 2:44 am on Oct. 24, 2010
Valetta
Kaymanx,what you say is true for the hit and run investor who wishes to make a quick profit by taking advantage of the rising baht.

There is nothing wrong with that.Any profit is a good profit.But trying to predict currency movements is very difficult.It is easy to get your fingers burnt if you chose the wrong time to cash in your investment.

I had in mind an investor who wanted to set up some sort of long term manufacturing business with an export bias.

However,another factor which I overlooked that is contributing to the appreciation of the baht is the relatively high interest rate paid on deposits in Thailand.That, coupled with a rising baht,certainly makes Thailand an attractive place for the short term investor.


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Posted on: 8:08 pm on Oct. 24, 2010
Kaymanx
"I had in mind an investor who wanted to set up some sort of long term manufacturing business with an export bias."

That really is the crux of the problem. It is the exporter who is hit hardest by the currency appreciation. In export dominated Thailand therefore currency appreciation would spell more bad than good among its business community -- unless they switch over to baht-denominated pricing which is likely to stir a hornet's nest among their customers. In the tourism sector, hotels would realise that quoting room tariffs in baht rather than dollars keeps them in profit while dollar pricing lands them in losses.

In the context of a country whose import dependency is higher than export, however, allowing the currency to appreciate should bring more gain than pain. And because foreign investors also benefit from such appreciation, it would be a happy marriage -- or at least a happy honeymoon -- assuming lessons from the past (1997, et al) are learnt.


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Posted on: 9:23 am on Oct. 25, 2010
dirty guru
Like the Australian dollar both currencies are 20% over priced-

In The Australian case a correction will manifest without much problems and (as you said) exporters will be happy in that instance-

In The Thailand instance the market will reel as product demand in Thailand does not support a sudden drop-

What we will see is a sharp surge in the Inflation levels that will inturn make matter worse-

sounds like Thanksin might even have in the not too distant future a cake to ice back in Bangkok


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Posted on: 10:35 am on Oct. 25, 2010
thailife
A couple of reasons that thailand is doing well.... Auto industry has been providing cars to the region (which is growing) and also the underground economy that no one talks about... I don't mean nightlife, I mean the ways Thais find ways to skirt paying taxes. Add to this interest rate differentials, growing consumer class and pent up demand for goods and services and you get..... thailand...... however, the fall never comes form where you most expect it...... mostly people look for political ( I mean the 800 pound gorilla in the room, not the Red's) or currency problems, but most likely the sledgehammer will come from something else......

What will it be? I have no idea.....

As for Australia, let's face it, this is a commodity driven economy and you can directly link commodity prices to AUS success.


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Posted on: 12:03 pm on Oct. 25, 2010
Vikingblood
Economic outlook bright

Thailand's GDP grew 7.8% in 2010:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/economics/222778/nesdb-2011-gdp-to-grow-3-5-4-5

The baht might continue being strong.


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Posted on: 9:09 am on Feb. 21, 2011
     

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