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Mr Alan
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Quote: from Broken Leg on 1:28 pm on June 2, 2005
Mr Alan, the issue is not the cumulative national us debt it is that the US spends $2billion more every day than it earns. They therefore have to borrow this $2billion every day from the rest of the world. This $2 billion (which is growing every day) as a percentage of GDP is significantly higher than it has ever been in US history. Currently most EU countries have current account surpluses.
The $2 billion does not all come from the rest of the world. There are lots of US investors who buy US Treasury instruments.
So in reality your pleasure in the bad economic situation in Europe and the problems of the EU are really pretty stupid and definitely childish.
I am really very, very unhappy that you did not appreciate my Nikita Kruschev impersonation. Lighten up a bit.
Also if you know exactly how Warren Buffet makes his money why are you condsidering offers at only 6 figures? In fact why are you still woking at all?
I don't know what you are suggesting here. Clearly Warren Buffet has lost a lot of money recently in currency futures (lost over a billion dollars), and this is something he has not traditionally invested with in the past.
It is well documented which stocks and which businesses Buffet made money with in the past to accumulate his fortune (and that of Berkshire Hathaway). He has traditionally bought very large stakes in a small number of large companies (or bought the company outright). The fact that I know exactly how Buffet invested in the past (Berkshire Hathaway is required to report on its holdings at least yearly), does not mean that I know which stocks and companies will do well in future, nor does it mean that Buffet knows the future either, especially since he has done rather poorly in the last 2 1/2 years.
In fact Berkshire Hathaway has under performed the S&P 500 index in each of the last 2 years (and because of currency exchange losses this year is on track to under perform again in 2005). I make no claims about my own ability to predict the future, although my portfolio has significantly outperformed Buffet’s for the last 2 years. But my capital base is not quite as large as his, so I cannot completely live off my investment income.
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Thai Girls : Meet Sexy Thai Girls
Posted on: 1:49 pm on June 3, 2005
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Loung Steeb
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Who really gives a fu^k about this shit. When you get to the airport and cash in your tokens for the real stuff, do you really want to get into a discussion about leverages, buy out, foreclosures??? Get a friggin grip./
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Bangkok Women : Meet Sensual Bangkok Women
Posted on: 1:52 pm on June 3, 2005
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Broken Leg
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Loung Steeb, we obviously give a shit about it, If you're not interested don't click on the link that takes you to this thread, it's actually very easy not to click on the link, why don't you practise you'll soon get the hang of it. There's a good boy
Quote: from Mr Alan on 2:01 am on June 4, 2005
quote]The $2 billion does not all come from the rest of the world. There are lots of US investors who buy US Treasury instruments.
You're getting mixed up here between the US government Budget deficit and the current account deficit. Of course I am aware that many US citizens buy US treasuries. But what I am talking about that during the normal trading of the day (buying and selling of goods) $2 billion dollars net flows out of the USA. So $2 billion in foreign currency has to come in. Yes US citizens could be doing this but they would have to be using foreign currency. The majority of this comes through treasuries, which the US governement as you've pointed out also has to sell because it runs a large deficit itself. However it can also come in through net positive inflows in US equties, i.e more people outside the us investing in US equties than US people investing in iverseas equties. But as you've pointed out recently due to dot com / accounting scandals foreign appetite for US equities has wained. However I do believe the last few months has seen net positive inflows into US equities. All this info is released in a monthly report called the Treasury International Capital report or TIC.
I am really very, very unhappy that you did not appreciate my Nikita Kruschev impersonation. Lighten up a bit.
Sorry mate, went right over my head that one! I seem to remember that when he said it it was misinterpreted as well.
I don't know what you are suggesting here. Clearly Warren Buffet has lost a lot of money recently in currency futures (lost over a billion dollars), and this is something he has not traditionally invested with in the past.
It is well documented which stocks and which businesses Buffet made money with in the past to accumulate his fortune (and that of Berkshire Hathaway). He has traditionally bought very large stakes in a small number of large companies (or bought the company outright). The fact that I know exactly how Buffet invested in the past (Berkshire Hathaway is required to report on its holdings at least yearly), does not mean that I know which stocks and companies will do well in future, nor does it mean that Buffet knows the future either, especially since he has done rather poorly in the last 2 1/2 years.
In fact Berkshire Hathaway has under performed the S&P 500 index in each of the last 2 years (and because of currency exchange losses this year is on track to under perform again in 2005). I make no claims about my own ability to predict the future, although my portfolio has significantly outperformed Buffet’s for the last 2 years. But my capital base is not quite as large as his, so I cannot completely live off my investment income.
Yeah accept what you say. about Berkshires results, but the guys still pretty rich and it anything but easy to make that amount of money!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
it terms of dollars he's lost a lot but as far as i'm aware the trades still open with him being long the euro around 1.29 so now we are at about 122.50 so that is a 5% loss I would assume, although on 20 billion odd thats a stack of cash! But I still think it's a bit premature to consider the strong dollar back and US economic policies a success just yet with these imbalances in the world economy. we shall see!!
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Thai Girls : Meet Sexy Thai Girls
Posted on: 4:18 pm on June 3, 2005
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Golden Star
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Not to mention that the 3.5% growth in GDP as mentioned by Mr Alan, a number he probably pulled out of the Wall Street Journal, is most likely a misrepresentation because many feel (including yours truly) that the CPI numbers are understated and inflation is actually higher than the numbers we're being fed. There is certainly no doubt that some of the calculations done by the economists are subjected to distortions.
Public transit costs, my lunch, etc. - everything is at least 10% higher than what I paid for a year ago, and they are trying to convince me that inflation is contained at 3%. What guacamole!
Supposing the CPI is indeed understated by 1-1.5%, the growth in GDP is brought down to Eurozone area levels which means the US is doing no better than Europe. Cheers!
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Sexy Bangkok Girls
Posted on: 3:02 pm on June 4, 2005
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Mr Alan
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Quote: from Golden Star on 2:14 pm on June 4, 2005
Not to mention that the 3.5% growth in GDP as mentioned by Mr Alan, a number he probably pulled out of the Wall Street Journal, is most likely a misrepresentation because many feel (including yours truly) that the CPI numbers are understated and inflation is actually higher than the numbers we're being fed. There is certainly no doubt that some of the calculations done by the economists are subjected to distortions.
Public transit costs, my lunch, etc. - everything is at least 10% higher than what I paid for a year ago, and they are trying to convince me that inflation is contained at 3%. What guacamole!
Supposing the CPI is indeed understated by 1-1.5%, the growth in GDP is brought down to Eurozone area levels which means the US is doing no better than Europe. Cheers!
The Wall Street Journal does not calculate GDP. Here is a report from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis which says that the US GDP grew at 3.5% in the first quarter of 2005.
http://www.finfacts.com/irelandbusinessnews/publish/article_10001968.shtml
If everything you buy is 10% higher than a year ago, then I guess you don't do much except ride the subway or bus and eat lunch at the same restaurant every day. I guess you don't have a home mortgage, or have car payments or have shopped for electronic gear recently.
I guess you are not a US citizen either, and just like to bash the US with your propaganda without any supporting documentation for your claims.
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Thai Women : Meet Matured Thai Women
Posted on: 4:35 pm on June 4, 2005
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tourist
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Quote: from Mr Alan on 2:01 am on June 4, 2005
quote]The $2 billion does not all come from the rest of the world. There are lots of US investors who buy US Treasury instruments.
You're getting mixed up here between the US government Budget deficit and the current account deficit.
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC.2004 ANNUAL REPORT[...]A budget deficit in no way reduces the portion of the national pie that goes to Americans. As long as other countries and their citizens have no net ownership of the U.S., 100% of our country’s output belongs to our citizens under any budget scenario, even one involving a huge deficit.
As a rich "family" awash in goods, Americans will argue through their legislators as to how government should redistribute the national output – that is who pays taxes and who receives governmental benefits. If "entitlement" promises from an earlier day have to be reexamined, "family members" will angrily debate among themselves as to who feels the pain. Maybe taxes will go up; maybe promises will be modified; maybe more internal debt will be issued. But when the fight is finished, all of the family’s huge pie remains available for its members, however it is divided. No slice must be sent abroad.
Large and persisting current account deficits produce an entirely different result. As time passes, and as claims against us grow, we own less and less of what we produce. In effect, the rest of the world enjoys an ever-growing royalty on American output. Here, we are like a family that consistently overspends its income. As time passes, the family finds that it is working more and more for the "finance company" and less for itself.
Should we continue to run current account deficits comparable to those now prevailing, the net ownership of the U.S. by other countries and their citizens a decade from now will amount to roughly $11 trillion. And, if foreign investors were to earn only 5% on that net holding, we would need to send a net of $.55 trillion of goods and services abroad every year merely to service the U.S. investments then held by foreigners. At that date, a decade out, our GDP would probably total about $18 trillion (assuming low inflation, which is far from a sure thing). Therefore, our U.S. “family” would then be delivering 3% of its annual output to the rest of the world simply as tribute for the overindulgences of the past. In this case, unlike that involving budget deficits, the sons would truly pay for the sins of their fathers.
This annual royalty paid the world – which would not disappear unless the U.S. massively underconsumed and began to run consistent and large trade surpluses – would undoubtedly produce significant political unrest in the U.S. Americans would still be living very well, indeed better than now because of the growth in our economy. But they would chafe at the idea of perpetually paying tribute to their creditors and owners abroad. A country that is now aspiring to an "Ownership Society" will not find happiness in – and I’ll use hyperbole here for emphasis – a "Sharecropper’s Society." But that’s precisely where our trade policies, supported by Republicans and Democrats alike, are taking us.[...]
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Posted on: 5:45 pm on June 4, 2005
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Golden Star
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"I guess you are not a US citizen either, and just like to bash the US with your propaganda without any supporting documentation for your claims."
This is getting ridiculous. Are you one of those Soviet-era drones or just a supreme windbag? If you read my posts carefully, you will see that all I was saying is that the US economy is facing several challenges which are likely to further depress the US Dollar. At no point have I offended anybody or said anything derogatory about the US. Could you please be so kind as to explain to me why that is considered "bashing the US with your propaganda"?
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Attractive Thai Girls
Posted on: 6:14 pm on June 4, 2005
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Mr Alan
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Quote: from Golden Star on 5:26 pm on June 4, 2005
This is getting ridiculous. Are you one of those Soviet-era drones or just a supreme windbag? If you read my posts carefully, you will see that all I was saying is that the US economy is facing several challenges which are likely to further depress the US Dollar. At no point have I offended anybody or said anything derogatory about the US. Could you please be so kind as to explain to me why that is considered "bashing the US with your propaganda"?
You have the right to say anything about the US you want to, even if it is derogatory. But instead of making up lies about the inflation rate and the GDP, and claiming that the Wall Street Journal fabricated the 3.5% GDP number, maybe you should check your facts more carefully.
Your opinions are welcome, but your lies will be dealt with appropriately. The only reason that I can think of for your lying about the GDP figures is that you hate the US, but perhaps there is some other motive that you can tell us about (perhaps you are a moron?), and then I will stand corrected.
I personally resent being called names for defending the truth. It has nothing to do with being a patriot, or a traitor, or anything about politics. The economy in the US is very good right now with low interest rates, low unemployment (5.1%), and very good GDP growth (3.5% in 1Q of 2005). How long it stays that way is open to debate, but I don’t predict the future.
Those who have tried to predict the future of the US economy on this forum over the last few years have demonstrated a very poor track record of prediction, although they can take some solace (I suppose) that they are in good company with Warren Buffet and his lap dog, Bill Gates.
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Thai Girls : Meet Active Thai Girls
Posted on: 7:43 pm on June 4, 2005
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Mr Alan
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Despite what many Europeans think (and what the Daily Reckoning article suggests), Americans don't really spend time thinking that the US is superior to other economies, cultures, etc. Perhaps we do get a bit defensive when others attack us, but we really don't care how other people run their countries unless there is a threat to US national security (which is not the case for the EU).
In fact, the reverse is true. It is some Europeans (many of whom are socialists or communists) with 10%+ unemployment who dream up these doomsday scenarios about why the US economy will collapse at any moment and why the EU economies are really superior. I guess misery loves company and it makes them feel better about their current plight. Sounds like a serious case of penis envy to me.
Yes, a lot of manufacturing has moved from the US (and EU) to China and elsewhere. But almost all the intellectual capital for the design of the products remains in the West. This may change, but it has not happened yet. The EU buys the same stuff from China as Americans. And there are scant few products made in the EU that Americans buy these days, and the number of products that are imported from the EU into America is shrinking. Even BMW and Mercedes are building auto plants in the US these days.
The preoccupation of leftists with the Wall Street Journal is similarly misplaced. Regardless of the politics of the WSJ editorial page, they report the same statistics on the US economy as the New York Times. Why is it that no one criticizes the NY Times for reporting that the US economy grew at 3.5% last quarter?
I do recall Nikita Khrushchev saying that Communism will destroy Capitalism. Whatever makes you happy Niki.
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Attractive Thai Girls
Posted on: 6:07 am on June 8, 2005
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