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Broken Leg
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Hey Mr Alan no offence intended,
The purpose of me giving the link is not US bashing and the purpose of the article is not US bashing, in fact it is written fro an Americans perspective. It just seemed to discuss exactly the point Golden star was making, that a lot of the economic info coming is significantly manipulated by statisticians.
These Boys are Americans and they are not interested in writing from political perspectives, they are investors and are interested in making money.
You can take it personally if you want, but as an Investor I would be more inclined to try to look at all the information as objectively as possible and come to conclusions from there rather than dismissing it as more US/Bush attacking
Anyway I didn't mean to stir up any bashing only informed discussion
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Attractive Thai Girls
Posted on: 6:30 am on June 8, 2005
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Golden Star
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Broken Leg - oh yes, I read that article too. The funny thing is, it's unlikely that the economists compiling this data are manipulating the statistics intentionally, but the numbers are certainly subjected to distortions, like everything else.
As for WSJ, I couldn't care less if they are rightist or leftist. The point here is that they simply take the number compiled by the said economists and publish it, and the public simply eats it up. "Oh, we are growing at 3.5%, hip-hip-hurray!" - well, guess what. It ain't 3.5%.
Anyway, this could have potentially been a good discussion until Mr. Alan started throwing the heavily-politicised accusations about "bashing the US with your propaganda" (sic). I was stunned as to how quickly this escalated into the if-you-don't-think-our-economy-rocks-you-must-be-anti-American.
He is totally missing the point; it's not about politics, but where you can make the biggest returns on your money in the long run.
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Bangkok Women : Meet Sensual Bangkok Women
Posted on: 7:00 am on June 8, 2005
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DaffyDuck
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Quote: from Golden Star on 7:12 pm on June 8, 2005
Broken Leg - oh yes, I read that article too. The funny thing is, it's unlikely that the economists compiling this data are manipulating the statistics intentionally, but the numbers are certainly subjected to distortions, like everything else.
"There are three types of lies - lies, damn lies, and statistics." - Variously attributed to Benjamin Disraeli, Alfred Marshall, Mark Twain and many other dead people.
What it comes down to, as Golden Star points out, is that while these numbers are *maybe) not intentionally maniulated by the economists that compile them, they are used for heavily positive spin by those reporting on them - notably, media and gov't organs. Again, none of this is intentionally misleading - picking the data that best supports your arguments is only human nature.
It's unfortunate that Mr. Alan sees this uniquely in a politically offensive angle, when it's all about keeping both your eyes open - particularly when it comes to your own money (and investing it).
Me, I'm still staying the hell out of the California, and US, real estate market - at least until the bubble bursts - on the other hand, the 'strong' dollar can only benefit us, when we travel to LOS, or when we intend to invest in LOS.
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Thai Girls : Meet Sexy Thai Girls
Posted on: 9:00 am on June 8, 2005
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Broken Leg
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Yes, significantly manipulated is far too strong a definition and one that I don't have enough knowledge to suggest, I retract that and just say that the figures coming out may actually be differing and giving a different impression from what is really going on.
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Sexy Bangkok Girls
Posted on: 9:12 am on June 8, 2005
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Golden Star
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Daffy - thanks for mentioning real estate prices. How could I forget that? Another example of inflation - we've seen a huge rise in home prices in parts of the US, Canada, London, etc. with people taking advantage of low interest rates. It's nuts - we have people borrowing on rising home values (which are nothing more than paper gains!), we have banks no longer demanding people to put up principal (just pay interest) and we've got people taking out mortgages with a variable interest rate. This is going to bite us in the back, that's for sure.
I also love the way economists talk about core inflation, inflation ex volatile items, etc. Why would you do exclude volatile items (e.g. food, gas, etc.) ?? It's part of your every-day expense! Especially for households in the lower-income strata, this is a big chunk of their expenses. I am absolutely convinced that US inflation is understated.
Right now, most of my portfolio is in non-USD-denominated assets because I am convinced the greenback will suffer unless the current administration fixes its problems (which it can't).
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Attractive Thai Girls
Posted on: 10:01 am on June 8, 2005
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manowar
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US economy is being proped up big time by the construction and the real estate industry. How long will this last (low interest rate-hyper real estate speculation) ? Nobody knows ( maybe except for MR. G) The real future for US to grow is in its hi/bio tech industries. The hi tech industries is making a small rebound, but not enough to help. The bio-tech, especially the stem cell industry is developing in a snail's pace with the Fed. not entirely supportive of it because of some right wing fundamentalists twisted view of the world. My prediction is US economy will go down the tubes as soon as it's real estate/construction industry goes down. Do you then put your $$ in EU, Asia....? Nah, hold it in liquid assets ( cash is king). why ? Because if US goes, China/Asia will go, too. As for EU, they are already on their way to "go" !
Disclaimer: The above article was written while too many fine California wines had been consumed. It has not sceintific basis. It's all BS ! You do what you want. Just don't come asking for more hand outs because I need to save up for my TBG's on my next trip to LOS......what a country !
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Bangkok Women : Meet Beautiful Thai Girls
Posted on: 10:51 am on June 8, 2005
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Golden Star
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"US economy is being proped up big time by the construction and the real estate industry. How long will this last (low interest rate-hyper real estate speculation) ? Nobody knows ( maybe except for MR. G) "
Manowar,
Mr. G is retiring soon and rest assured that he does NOT want to end his long tenure by presiding over a crisis. He will do whatever it takes to postpone shocks and damage inflicted by the pumping of liquidity into world markets. And why not? He is only human.
Also, if you believe your own scenario, holding cash might not a very good idea, especially if you're in the US. A much better idea would be gold. Nobody ever got rich by owning cash.
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Attractive Thai Girls
Posted on: 10:58 am on June 8, 2005
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manowar
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Quote: from Golden Star on 7:10 am on June 8, 2005
"US economy is being proped up big time by the construction and the real estate industry. How long will this last (low interest rate-hyper real estate speculation) ? Nobody knows ( maybe except for MR. G) "
Manowar,
Mr. G is retiring soon and rest assured that he does NOT want to end his long tenure by presiding over a crisis. He will do whatever it takes to postpone shocks and damage inflicted by the pumping of liquidity into world markets. And why not? He is only human.
Also, if you believe your own scenario, holding cash might not a very good idea, especially if you're in the US. A much better idea would be gold. Nobody ever got rich by owning cash.
Yes, I agree about gold ( as well as other cash equivalent instruments) and I did say "liquid assets". "Cash is king" is a rhetoricall statement since you can always exchange "liquid assets" to "cash", I therefore made the equivalents. But remember, this is all predicated on the premises that the entire US real estate will crash. US is a big place. real estate prices are at dizzling high in some areas but not in all. I do not see the "doomsday scenario" happening in the near future. But the real CRASH will come when the baby boomers retire enmass in the next 15 years. Who will then buy all of our big empty-nested houses then ?
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Thai Girls : Meet Active Thai Girls
Posted on: 11:10 am on June 8, 2005
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DaffyDuck
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Quote: from Golden Star on 10:13 pm on June 8, 2005
Daffy - thanks for mentioning real estate prices. How could I forget that? Another example of inflation - we've seen a huge rise in home prices in parts of the US, Canada, London, etc. with people taking advantage of low interest rates. It's nuts - we have people borrowing on rising home values (which are nothing more than paper gains!), we have banks no longer demanding people to put up principal (just pay interest) and we've got people taking out mortgages with a variable interest rate. This is going to bite us in the back, that's for sure.
I never quite understood the logic of the average consumer:
- Get a low interest, variable rate loan. Yes, it's 1% below the fixed rate loans, which loks cheap on paper, but what happens when that variable rate inches up above the fixed rate, and you wake up one day owing $2,400 on your $1,600 a month mortgage -- the same month you wake up to your car payments being 20% higher.
- Pay back interest only -- has anyone done the math and figured out how paying interest only will repay a $500,000 loan in 30 years?
- Lastly, how does getting a low-interest loan, to buy a property that is now valued at 300% more than previously, a good deal? The only winners are those with moderate mortgages ($500-$750,000), that refinnanced when interest rates dropped, and are now paying $1,200 for their previously $2,700 a month mortgage. Those who borrow money at 'low interest' for a house that used to be $350,000, but is now $800,000, are NOT saving money, or getting a god deal - yet, they think they do. Not only that, they also opted for the interest only, and variable rate loan.
Can't wait for those folks to start walking away from their mortgages.
Though, right now, what matters is that everyone believes that the economy is doing well, and spends thusly. Reaganomics worked, and it works again today.
I do agree that the US has great opportunities in tech and bio-tech sectors, but the administration is either not supporting it enough (tech), or letting stupid religious views drive our bio-tech engineers and scientists to other countries (Fortunately, California has established stem-cell budgets). Couple that with shamelessly supporting and encouraging outsourcing, and we have our intellectual property leaving the country at an alarming rate -- especially with foreign countries luring and offering bright rewards.
How long until China or other countries will lure American scientists and biologists with high stipends, free living, and lucrative contracts...?
I'm looking at diversifying abroad myself - especially into RMB - once the currency gets to float, that cash should increase in value practically overnight (as long as you can afford to hold on to it until then)
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Thai Women : Meet Matured Thai Women
Posted on: 1:26 pm on June 8, 2005
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Mr Alan
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Regarding the bashing of America: No one likes to bash America more than the leftists in the US, especially when a Republican is the sitting president. It is strange how we never heard any complaints from these people when the internet boom had wildly inflated the stock market during the Clinton administration.
If it makes anyone feel better, the US will not be sustaining a 3.5% GDP growth rate in the near future. That level is unsustainable and probably undesirable for a mature economy that is already out of a recession. However, the arguments about the fallacies in the GDP statistics are not specific enough and not documented well enough, to seriously respond to them. That is probably by design. If statistics lie, then why is it that the statistics of the Daily Reckoning are automatically taken as truth, even though they present scant documentation to back up their claims?
If the current GDP figures for the US are over inflated, then the GDP figures in the last quarter of the Clinton Administration (4Q 2000) were also inflated (even though they showed negative growth as reported). So if you accept the premise that US GDP is overstated by their methodology, then Clinton was running a significant negative growth rate for the entire last year of his administration.
When the trade deficit in the US is documented, it does at first glance seem like a compelling reason to be very concerned. However, the US has been running an ever-increasing trade deficit since about 1980 and the economy has been growing steadily ever since then. That is why I am very skeptical about those who try to predict the future based on these indicators.
There are lots of doom and gloomers around. No doubt that real estate prices in some places are inflated. No doubt that there are other problems facing the US (I can't remember any time when there haven’t been problems). But those who have bet heavily against the US this year (Buffet and Gates) have taken a big one up the ass. My suspicion (more than suspicion actually) is that the Daily Reckoning folks are short on the market, and short on the dollar. They probably have had horrendous margin calls for their losses in the currency markets and are trying to talk the economy down so they can recover their investments.
The standard in business journalism these days is for reporters and commentators to reveal their investment positions in the markets they comment on. I would bet anyone my entire life savings that the Daily Reckoning is short on the dollar, but is too bad they don’t have the integrity to reveal that when they comment on these things.
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Attractive Thai Girls
Posted on: 3:07 pm on June 8, 2005
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