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Valetta
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Magnum when it comes to currency rates I am yet to be persuaded that trends have any meaning at least in terms of predicting the future.
Currency rates react immediately to any change
which the market thinks will affect the demand for A$ such as interest rates both in Australia and overseas,and particularly anything likely to affect the demand from China for Australia`s exports.Any significant change in these areas can easily reverse a trend which is really no more than a summary of what has happened in the past period under review.
Probably all that a trend can influence is the time it takes for a rise or fall in the A$ to occur. For example, if the A$ has been rising strongly for some weeks,any change which the market considers will reduce the demand for A$,is likely to result in the inevitable fall taking longer to be fully reflected in exchange rates than would be the case if the A$ had been falling.
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Thai Girls : Meet Sexy Thai Girls
Posted on: 9:41 pm on Mar. 26, 2012
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dirty guru
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Remember, that the Australain dollar is not under pinned and wild fluxuations are not uncommon.
The only sure time you can see a market increase and rise or fall is with sudden demands or lack off it's prime movers.
In this case exports of resources.
Here is an example. News of a drop in demand for mineral resources from China saw the Aussie fall 2 cents in one day.
But economic data from the united states saw it recover a cent yesterday.
But traders know the Aussie dollar is risky in this climate and shift to the American when resource demand lightens.
The local market wants a correction in the currency in any case.
It might well go to $1.07 in the short term...but that's if Europe is ok and data like US home sales continue to do better.
The real mover is resources and the shifts that determine a trend is demand.
The bottom line is a drop is forecast til later in year......this will see a slide...
There are no absolutes but the script usually goes like this.
China slows we slow.
The fall might be greater than expected.....I think 100-103 cents is about right but 96 to 99 is easily possible.
Once a sell off starts it takes weeks to stop.
But look at the six month trend and it's south.
The tide isn't turning...it's just a pause.
Mining economies like Australia do suffering when investors see a slow down.
The US dollar is looking better by the day.
Why risk the Aussie until later in the year is what they are thinking.
Volume is thin...check yourself..we all know what that means
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Bangkok Women : Meet Sensual Bangkok Women
Posted on: 9:59 pm on Mar. 26, 2012
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dirty guru
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The below graph will confirm that the trend is indeed down....
And it continues in this direction as the graph clearly shows
...Magnum would be ok if he took my advice.
In a mining economy when demand eases...things happen.
And as global fears play into the currency risk
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/australian-dollar-sold-traders-fear-044200775.html
Interest rates will be cut next month by about 0.25 % this will trigger a further lowing of the dollar.
China will not have a hard landing.......so if you buy Australian dollars in June...by Xmas your gains will be good....as huge projects go online
In good news for American tradesmen.....Australia has opened up a welcome Mat to Americans to come and work here in the mining Industry under special visa rules.
The graph
http://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AUDUSD=X&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
Australia to fast-track visas for US tradies
Updated April 02, 2012 16:28:47
The Federal Government will fast-track the assessment process for skilled US workers coming to Australia.
Under the agreement, US tradespeople will able to complete a skills assessment before coming to Australia.
It will mean faster processing times for visa applicants and better job security for US workers wanting to come here.
Immigration Minister Chris Bowen says it is important for Australia to attract workers with the right skills.
"There are economies and countries around the world which are facing very difficult and different circumstances to ours," he said.
"What's appropriate is that we work together with those countries to ensure that skilled workers who are looking for work have the capacity to fill some of those gaps we are facing in Australia."
The changes are designed to deal with the skills shortage in the construction and resources industries.
Federal Minister for Skills Chris Evans says there are many tradespeople in the US who are prepared to come to Australia but are being turned off by some of the requirements.
"Currently they would have to come to Australia not sure if they would get that licence and it may take some months to get that licence awarded to them," he said.
"So these changes will allow for recognition in the United States, which will provide confidence for the worker and the employer that they'll be able to bring them in temporarily for employment."
US Ambassador to Australia Jeffrey Bleich has welcomed the agreement.
Australia is expected to give Americans 15,000 positions in the mining Industry, with an average salary of $140 K a year
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Thai Girls : Meet Sexy Thai Girls
Posted on: 3:36 pm on April 3, 2012
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The Machine
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I am hoping the Aussie dollar goes down especially against the Singapore dollar coz I have over 100k SD in my savings account here waiting for the dollar to drop!
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Sexy Bangkok Girls
Posted on: 8:41 am on April 4, 2012
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dirty guru
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Keeping telling you guys it's gonna go south
April 04, 2012 17:29:21
The Australian dollar fell to an 11-week low against the greenback today after the latest official trade figures surprised most by revealing that the country recorded a trade deficit for the second month in a row.
The gap between imports and exports was $480 million in February on a seasonally adjusted basis, Bureau of Statistics figures showed.
Economists had been expecting a surplus of $1.1 bilion.
The local currency had already dropped yesterday on speculation that the Reserve Bank would cut interest rates sooner rather than later, and today it fell further, reaching a low of 102.6 US cents at 12:25pm (AEST).
The weak trade data also saw the Australian share market fall, but it clawed back most of those losses to end the session relatively flat.
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Thai Women : Meet Matured Thai Women
Posted on: 7:12 pm on April 4, 2012
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dirty guru
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Quote: from Valetta on 1:57 pm on Mar. 26, 2012
Magnum anyone who says they can predict foreign exchange rates with any degree of accuracy,even over 3-4 months,is deluding themselves
Well, I did end up being correct....the advice I gave Magnum has come to pass....I predicted a sell off....and the Aussie falling.
It's now at less than parity with the US dollar..
Expect further falls...the range I gave when it was 107 cents was a fall to 102 cents at least and possibly down as low as 96 cents.
I am now reviewing this forcast ( as it sits at 98 cents currently) to predict it will by July 30th fall all the way down to 88 cents.
If that doesn't occurr it will at very least hit 92 cents.
These forecasts are not crystal ball driven or smart arse guessing.
Remember the Australian dollar is very much a commodity driven investment haven...
The euro and US markets play heavily as does Chinese demand. ( for resources)
The trick is to buy Australian dollars in the trough about late July.
Then as mining investments and projects start to come on line and the US election passes watch the dollar climb by a full 10% again and reap the rewards.
That's why traders do invest here it's not rocket science and is relatively easy to follow the trend.
Anyhow told you so...
Now let's see if my next prediction takes place....
A fall of 3 cents or more in June and down to 88-92 cents by July 31st
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Attractive Thai Girls
Posted on: 7:17 pm on May 18, 2012
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thailife
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DG,
LIstening to you give foreign currency advice is the same as argueing the bar tab on the Titanic.... plus, you really need to go back to page ONE of this thread.....
look at your claims from the forst 10 pages... as you will see, YOU were wrong.... the aussie roared to around 110 or so against the dollar and you told the readers here to buy... it was going higher.... and I called you on it... and low and behold, I was right... around the time I called BS on your currency madness it topped and has not seen those levels since.....
Read the thread and weep...... Page 7..... you guys were all happy AUS at 110, and I calle dfo rPAIN going forward... so let's see who was right: Here is a chart of the AUS and dollar... go hover your curser over May 2011 and you will see the 110 trades....
The Aussies were pounding the table how much higher the Aussie would go...... I was the lone wolf on the other side of the trade......
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=AUD&to=USD&view=2Y
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Thai Girls : Meet Active Thai Girls
Posted on: 8:15 pm on May 18, 2012
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dirty guru
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Explanation is simple....
The first page is over a year ago....the trend then was for higher...but what went wrong was a leadership take over in Australia and a carbon tax.
The mining sector and Chinese contracts got affected...meantime the euro problems..
Short term it's easier....
Factors will always occur.
However your lone wolf shit is way off.
Australian economy didn't hit recession...( at all ) infact our unemployment is 5%...we have low debt and surplus forcast....higher growth since 2008 in ecomony than Europe or US.
Some have a very fragile grip on world economics...the China hard landing never occurred..
He is however right...on Spain.
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Thai Women : Meet Matured Thai Women
Posted on: 9:41 pm on May 18, 2012
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thailife
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I wish life was so easy... make a market call, be wrong and then say a year later "it's a year later"... well, not quite.... you pounded the table at 110 to the dollar...... and it was the high. You nailed it., but on the wrong side of the trade.
You fell in love at 110 and a 10% move in a currency over the course of a year is HUGE.
DG, I am calling you out on this one.
You were wrong.
Now fess up and say "yes, I f***ed up on the 110 pound the table on the Aussie dollar".
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Attractive Thai Girls
Posted on: 9:53 am on May 19, 2012
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