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dirty guru
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It's this simple...
Had there been no change to the resources boom...ie No mining tax (additional) put on the Table....and then a carbon tax..
It would have made 130 cents...
Most economists conceded that then.
Where it came unstuck was not only the factors that control a resources economy....(which by the way represents 50% of all our trade)
But the Euro debt problems....which automatically slowed Chinese demand.
Those factors are undeniable.
But let's not focus on the year old prediction...
Remember it was me who in Febuary and March....when it was 107 cents..
Who modified the call...saying when Magnum asked which way it was going that its heading south.
It's like driving a car lost...and saying ok that isn't the way now....turn right..and arriving at that place after making the correction.
It's there for all to see...that's infact what I did in March...
It was clear then the new factors had crippled the Boom (for now)
But Thailife....if you think the Australian dollar will stay south a long time your also wrong.
Market forces will change again and the underlying factors of trading volume when it's low (ie shifting and buying in bulk low) and demand strengthens in resources once more....it will climb again.
Here's how I see things..
Slackening of demand....change of government
Thus a scrapping of both carbon tax and resources additional mining tax.
Much higher confidence locally (this will take 12-18 months)
By then European problems might have all played out...and the consumer confidence in markets in Asia regathering steam.
It is about really one word
China
We are in Asia and sell 50% to China all the total Exports
There is actually massive projects due to come on line.
What usually happens is the mining companies win...throw out the government that f***s with them...investor confidence returns.
When the Aussie dollar hits low 90s or high 80s
That's the time to jump back on board....
And when an election is called in Australia there will be a huge jump in trades occurring as the markets all recognize the very thing that stalled the economy here ( mining taxes) will be scrapped.
It's that simple...
It's like a car stalling that's all.
We have gone round in the circle but made the right call.
It's exactly where I called it a few months back.
And the only reason...""I Was Wrong " initially over a year ago (before I corrected the call) was mining tax and Euro problems.
Greece has f***ed the Boom
For now.
But wait til 2014 and your Aussie dollar will be back above that 110 mark again....
Certainly parity by years end.
Now is a good time to watch it slide as it will...
Then make money on its return....
Which by the way is what traders wait for and do in our currency.
If you can't understand all the above
Or feel its not the "real "" reason....then it's a waste of time arguing
Thailife your the same guy who predicted a China hard landing..while I said soft.....
I won that one clearly....
And the economic long term forcast of Australia is good.
We didn't hit recession as you also predicted and I insisted it wouldn't.
One of us here is having a better record it seems of getting it right then the other.
I even know when to adjust....
Which is how you make money (by the way)
If you even had basic understanding of the Aussie you would know in 12 years it's increased by 100% from 49 cents in 2000 to over 110 in 2011/12
Shifts are common not dramatic.....remember it's not under pinned and a resource driven economy.
A ten per cent shift occurs routinely over the course of a year here....go look at the graphs.
Most suggest that the Australian Dollar remains a popular long currency for carry traders, funded by shorting the US Dollar, and to a lesser extent, Japanese Yen.
Given that many of these carry trades are heavily leveraged, it wouldn’t take much to trigger a short squeeze and a rapid decline in the AUD/USD. For evidence of this phenomenon, one has to look no further back than May 2010, when the Aussie fell 10-15% in only three weeks.
However the reverse is also true and currency lifts of 10% are dispite what Thailife says common.
Long term....?
No one knows for sure...
But, we have strong economic figures...low unemployment at 5% and surplus forcast...low debt..good demand for resources...billions in investments...and geographically located in the worlds new power house region.
Asia.
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Thai Girls : Meet Sexy Thai Girls
Posted on: 1:01 pm on May 19, 2012
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thailife
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DG,
beyond a 50,000 foot view of world economics, maybe you need to drill down on charts of individual commodity prices...... that is a better arguement than "China buys our rocks so we are ok"
Currencys tend to float in cycles..... let me help you here..... you believe because AUS mines and sells rocks and most of it goes to Cina and China is growing, AUS will be ok.....
Well, here is probably a better way to look at it... as long as Australia has pricing power in a increasing price commodity, this is good.....
Lose pricing power or production is over demand or commodity prices goes down and shit hits the fan.
Overlay chart of your lagrest export commodities over the AUS/$ chart and you will see a direct correlation.....
What I feel the AUS problem will be is real estate........ we will wait to see how that plays out.....
What water proof cover do you use for you Ipad on the water taxi?
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Bangkok Women : Meet Sensual Bangkok Women
Posted on: 4:10 pm on May 19, 2012
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tezza
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DG, is that a longwinded way of saying "I was wrong, you were right TL" ? 
I was going to trade 10k a week ago but I bought 2 bottles of Barcardi, so didn't quite have enough, so I waited till this week after getting paid. In that time the currency appreciated by 3 cents 
Thank you Greece and thank you Barcardi
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Thai Girls : Meet Sexy Thai Girls
Posted on: 4:19 pm on May 19, 2012
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dirty guru
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But what you talk about regards real Estate you must first understand our banking sector is very tightly controlled.
We can't have the crash you guys did.
The loans are simply too hard to get in the first place.
Then you need economic conditions such as inflation and higher unemployment.....
We have both under control too.
The housing slow is more to do with Australians saving money.
We have per capital more savings than other G20 countries.
The banks ( top 4) are all amoungst the worlds best 50, for policy control.
There is no fundamentals that point to an Australian crash, not even a recession.
In fact the indicators are all good
The water taxi has an office....houseboat
There is a Mac there...
And this I Pad doesn't get exposed to the elements...the water taxi is 2.5 tonnes and over 8 meters with a cabin that's enclosed ( unless I use the pop top....so it's all good.
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Sexy Bangkok Girls
Posted on: 5:04 pm on May 19, 2012
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thailife
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DG, once again you take the 50,000 foot view of the economy... dig deeper.... how about home affordability? What percent of peoples income is being spent to service a mrtgage? What % of people can afford a home when you consider traditional income to expense ratios? What % of home were bought in the last year compared to each year before?
I ask the last question because this is what caused the U.S. problem... once markets turned down.... many people found themselves in a homw they paid $1 million for anf then was worth $600k... whay stay in the house... I use this example to demonstrate that a rising tide lifts all boats... or taxis.... and when the market turns down, and it will, it is all a cycle, what number of people will simply walk away? What number of people will not buy because they believe home will be sheaper in the future?
Think outside the box DG and dig a little deeper.....
Remember, this is a 'confidence game'.... as long as home go up in value, no problems..... let iprices move South and you will get a lesson in supply demand economics like you neve rhad before.....
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Thai Women : Meet Matured Thai Women
Posted on: 11:04 am on May 20, 2012
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dirty guru
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Here's an indication where Australia is heading.....
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) says the Australian economy is expected to grow at a faster rate than most other advanced economies in 2012 and 2013.
The group's half-yearly report predicts that Australia's economy will grow at 3.1 per cent in 2012 and 3.7 per cent in 2013, and welcomes the Federal Government's commitment to delivering a budget surplus.
But the organisation warns that the crisis in the eurozone poses the single largest risk to the global economy.
The OECD says Australia's strong mining sector will bolster economic growth in the next few years.
But it cautions that other sectors of the economy suffering due to the high dollar will have to raise productivity, which could affect the labour market.
The organisation has endorsed the Government's plan to boost its cash reserves while the economy is strong and demand for resource exports is still high, and says lowering interest rates will help offset any negative impact of budget tightening.
In the budget handed down earlier this month, the Federal Government forecast growth of about 3.25 per cent slowing to 3 per cent.
Federal Treasurer Wayne Swan says the report confirms yet again that Australia is the stand-out performer on the global stage.
"It's consistent with the fact that we have got solid growth, low unemployment, contained inflation, strong public finances and a record pipeline of business investment in resources," he said.
"I think it is good news. I mean, Australia has a triple-A credit rating from the three major credit rating agencies."
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Bangkok Women : Meet Beautiful Thai Girls
Posted on: 9:06 pm on May 22, 2012
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expatchuck
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...and as much as you seem to dislike the US, you can thank us for your rosy outlook. It's long but read the following and learn why Australia must have the military support of the US and not China.
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Australia's Strategy
May 22, 2012 | 0900 GMT
Stratfor
By George Friedman
Australia is one of the wealthiest countries in the world, ranked in the top 10 in gross domestic product per capita. It is one of the most isolated major countries in the world; it occupies an entire united continent, is difficult to invade and rarely is threatened. Normally, we would not expect a relatively well-off and isolated country to have been involved in many wars. This has not been the case for Australia and, more interesting, it has persistently not been the case, even under a variety of governments. Ideology does not explain the phenomenon in this instance.
Since 1900, Australia has engaged in several wars and other military or security interventions (including the Boer War, World War I, World War II and the wars in Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq) lasting about 40 years total. Put another way, Australia has been at war for more than one-third of the time since the Commonwealth of Australia was established in 1901. In only one of these wars, World War II, was its national security directly threatened, and even then a great deal of its fighting was done in places such as Greece and North Africa rather than in direct defense of Australia. This leaves us to wonder why a country as wealthy and seemingly secure as Australia would have participated in so many conflicts.
Importance of Sea-Lanes
To understand Australia, we must begin by noting that its isolation does not necessarily make it secure. Exports, particularly of primary commodities, have been essential to Australia. From wool exported to Britain in 1901 to iron ore exported to China today, Australia has had to export commodities to finance the import of industrial products and services in excess of what its population could produce for itself. Without this trade, Australia could not have sustained its economic development and reached the extraordinarily high standard of living that it has.
This leads to Australia's strategic problem. In order to sustain its economy it must trade, and given its location, its trade must go by sea. Australia is not in a position, by itself, to guarantee the security of its sea-lanes, due to its population size and geographic location. Australia therefore encounters two obstacles. First, it must remain competitive in world markets for its exports. Second, it must guarantee that its goods will reach those markets. If its sea-lanes are cut or disrupted, the foundations of Australia's economy are at risk.
Think of Australia as a creature whose primary circulatory system is outside of its body. Such a creature would be extraordinarily vulnerable and would have to develop unique defense mechanisms. This challenge has guided Australian strategy.
First, Australia must be aligned with -- or at least not hostile to -- the leading global maritime power. In the first part of Australia's history, this was Britain. More recently, it has been the United States. Australia's dependence on maritime trade means that it can never simply oppose countries that control or guarantee the sea-lanes upon which it depends; Australia cannot afford to give the global maritime power any reason to interfere with its access to sea-lanes.
Second, and more difficult, Australia needs to induce the major maritime powers to protect Australia's interests more actively. For example, assume that the particular route Australia depends on to deliver goods to a customer has choke points far outside Australia's ability to influence. Assume further that the major power has no direct interest in that choke point. Australia must be able to convince the major power of the need to keep that route open. Merely having amiable relations will not achieve that. Australia must make the major power dependent upon it so that Australia has something to offer or withdraw in order to shape the major power's behavior.
Creating Dependency
Global maritime powers are continually involved in conflict -- frequently regional and at times global. Global interests increase the probability of friction, and global power spawns fear. There is always a country somewhere that has an interest in reshaping the regional balance of power, whether to protect itself or to exact concessions from the global power.
Another characteristic of global powers is that they always seek allies. This is partly for political reasons, in order to create frameworks for managing their interests peacefully. This is also for military reasons. Given the propensity for major powers to engage in war, they are always in need of additional forces, bases and resources. A nation that is in a position to contribute to the global power's wars is in a position to secure concessions and guarantees. For a country such as Australia that is dependent on sea-lanes for its survival, the ability to have commitments from a major power to protect its interests is vital.
Deployment in the Boer War was partly based on Australian ideology as a British colony, but in fact Australia had little direct interest in the outcome of the war. It also was based on Australia's recognition that it needed Britain's support as a customer and a guarantor of its security. The same can be said for the wars in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. Australia might have had some ideological interest in these wars, but its direct national security was only marginally at stake in them. However, Australian participation in these wars helped to make the United States dependent on Australia to an extent, which in turn induced the United States to guarantee Australian interests.
There were also wars that could have concluded with a transformation of the global system. World War I and World War II were attempts by some powers to overthrow the existing global order and replace it with a different one. Australia emerged from the old political order, and it viewed the prospect of a new order as both unpredictable and potentially dangerous. Australia's participation in those wars was still in part about making other powers dependent upon it, but it also had to do with the preservation of an international system that served Australia. (In World War II there was also an element of self-defense: Australia needed to protect itself from Japan and certainly from a Japanese-controlled Pacific Ocean and potentially the Indian Ocean.)
Alternative Strategy
Australia frequently has been tempted by the idea of drawing away from the global power and moving closer to its customers. This especially has been the case since the United States replaced Britain as the global maritime power. In the post-World War II period, as Asian economic activity increased, Asian demand increased for Australian raw materials, from food to industrial minerals. First Japan and then China became major customers of Australia.
The Australian alternative (aside from isolation, which would be economically unsustainable) was to break or limit its ties to the United States and increasingly base its national security on Japan or, later, on China. The theory was that China, for example, was the rising power and was essential to Australian interests because of its imports, imports that it might secure from other countries. The price of the relationship with the United States -- involvement in American conflicts -- was high. Therefore, this alternative strategy would have limited Australia's exposure to U.S. demands while cementing its relationship with its primary customer, China.
This strategy makes sense on the surface, but there are two reasons that Australia, though it has toyed with the strategy, has not pursued it. The first is the example of Japan. Japan appeared to be a permanent, dynamic economic power. But during the 1990s, Japan shifted its behavior, and its appetite for Australian goods stagnated. Economic relationships depend on the ability of the customer to buy, and that depends on the business cycle, political stability and so on. A strategy that would have created a unique relationship between Australia and Japan would have quickly become unsatisfactory. If, as we believe, China is in the midst of an economic slowdown, entering into a strategic relationship with China would also be a mistake, or at the very least, a gamble.
The second reason Australia has not changed its strategy is that, no matter what relationship it has with China or Japan, the sea-lanes are under the control of the United States. In the event of friction with China, the United States, rather than guaranteeing the sea-lanes for Australia, might choose to block them. In the end, Australia can sell to many countries, but it must always use maritime routes. Thus, it has consistently chosen its relationship with Britain or the United States rather than commit to any single customer or region.
Australia is in a high-risk situation, even though superficially it appears secure. Its options are to align with the United States and accept the military burdens that entails, or to commit to Asia in general and China in particular. Until that time when an Asian power can guarantee the sea-lanes against the United States -- a time that is far in the future -- taking the latter route would involve pyramiding risks. Add to this that the relationship would depend on the uncertain future of Asian economies -- and all economic futures are now uncertain -- and Australia has chosen a lower-risk approach.
This approach has three components. The first is deepening economic relations with the United States to balance its economic dependencies in Asia. The second is participating in American wars in order to extract guarantees from the United States on sea-lanes. The final component is creating regional forces able to handle events in Australia's near abroad, from the Solomon Islands through the Indonesian archipelago. But even here, Australian forces would depend on U.S. cooperation to manage threats.
The Australian strategy therefore involves alignment with the leading maritime power, first Britain and then the United States, and participation in their wars. We began by asking why a country as wealthy and secure as Australia would be involved in so many wars. The answer is that its wealth is not as secure as it seems.
http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/australias-strategy
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Attractive Thai Girls
Posted on: 11:35 pm on May 22, 2012
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dirty guru
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Look at your opening remark..
Quote
...and as much as you seem to dislike the US, you can thank us for your rosy outlook. It's long but read the following and learn why Australia must have the military support of the US and not China.
Unquote
We are so heavily into US policy it's not Funny.....
That suggestion blurs the difference between ""trade ""...and Military.
Leave politics aside.....
They are good trading partners.
Don't twist that relationship
Expat I respect you....but that's a very poor article
Surely your kidding ? have you read the ""white paper"" ?( Australia"s military outlook"") that upset China....and made Americans happy.?
The truth is the Chinese are furious at our suck up American relationship.
Australia is your best loyal mate...
We just sell rocks
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Thai Girls : Meet Active Thai Girls
Posted on: 5:52 am on May 23, 2012
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thailife
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Australians lick the dingle berries from my ass hair.......
No not really, we buy your rocks....
DG, you have to stop the U.S. - Australia - China thing.... it grows old......
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Thai Women : Meet Matured Thai Women
Posted on: 9:42 am on May 23, 2012
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dirty guru
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This thread is about the Australian dollar last I looked not some paranoid republican American article designed to infer Australasia trade is in conflict with US policy in the Pacific.
Now stick to the topic
Here's an article that shows why Australians can smile
Australia is the world's happiest nation, beating Norway and US, based on criteria including income, jobs, housing and health compiled by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.
Worrying has become an addiction: Malcolm Maiden
Australia led all rich nations, the Paris-based group's Better Life Index showed, when each of 11 categories surveyed in 36 nations is given equal weight.
Life expectancy at birth in Australia is almost 82 years, two years higher than the OECD average, the survey showed. More than 72 per cent of people aged 15 to 64 in Australia have a paid job, above the OECD average
Australia was the only major developed nation to avoid the 2009 worldwide recession and the government is aiming to return its budget to surplus in the 2012-13 fiscal year.
A mining investment boom has spurred hiring and driven the unemployment rate below 5 per cent, even as the strong dollar - recent falls notwithstanding - hurts manufacturing and tourism.
“Australia performs exceptionally well in measures of well-being, as shown by the fact that it ranks among the top countries in a large number of topics in the Better Life Index,” said the OECD, a body representing the world's developed nations.
As Europe faces years of fiscal austerity, Australia's budget surplus would make it one of the first developed nations to emerge from an era of red ink caused by the worldwide financial crisis that started in 2008. Even so, the economic success is yet to translate into electoral support for the Gillard government, which continues to trail the Coalition in opinion polls.
'Dodged that bullet'
“We've all just lived through the biggest economic meltdown since the Great Depression,” Prime Minister Julia Gillard said in a May 9 interview, when asked why her government has low poll ratings. “While Australia has largely dodged that bullet - we didn't have a recession, for example - it has had an impact on people.
"We're a government with a big reform agenda," she said. "I'm not surprised there's some nervousness in the community.”
Still, Australia's unemployment rate is tipped by the OECD to rise as industries outside of mining struggle.
The nation's jobless rate will climb to 5.7 per cent in 2013 from 5.4 per cent this year. That would match a level reached in September 2009 and be higher than the average in the past decade of 5.2 per cent.
“Mining expansion will continue, but some other sectors are having to adjust to the high level of the exchange rate and raise their productivity, which can be expected to weigh on the labor market,” the OECD said in the report. “Faster fiscal consolidation will also weigh somewhat on demand.”
Budget surplus
Gillard's government plans a $46 billion swing to a budget surplus, helping to provide the Reserve Bank with more scope to cut interest rates.
The central bank has cut the benchmark interest rate by a per centage point to 3.75 per cent in the past six months to stoke demand as a 41 per cent gain in the dollar against the greenback since 2008 hurts non-resource exporters, tourism and education.
Australia's unemployment rate fell last month to 4.9 per cent, the lowest level since April 2011, from 5.2 per cent in March, a government report showed this month. Core inflation slowed to a 13-year low in the first quarter as the currency's strength contained prices.
“In the absence of inflationary pressures, the accommodating monetary stance which accompanies this budget- tightening should help limit the risk of weakening employment,” the OECD said.
Australia is also one of the world's safest trade and foreign investment destinations, ranking alongside Canada, Germany, Norway and Sweden, according to an analysis of 131 countries on Dun & Bradstreet Corp's Global Risk Indicator.
“Solid gross domestic product growth, relative to other developed economies, contributes to Australia's status as one of the world's safest trade destinations,” according to the article.
Bloomberg
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Attractive Thai Girls
Posted on: 4:43 pm on May 23, 2012
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