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atl
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LS,
whats up man? I hope you and the miss are well...the little one should be here soon, na law?
The problem with ATM transactions is that it is a 5$ fee each withdrawel...and I have a thai bank account.
Yurune..I agree with you and would not think about walking around with that much cash. Of course, I was thinking about depositing in my thai farmers bank account.
I can simply deposit the 3K now if it seems like The $$ will drop lower than 37.5 to a dollar...thats all I am asking.
atl
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Attractive Thai Girls
Posted on: 9:10 am on Sep. 4, 2006
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Mel Gibson
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atl,, already at 37.37 but some reasonable data coming out of US,,,,, maybe too late to change and better waiting.
Either that or spread economic gloom about Thailand across the internet
Regards
Mel
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Bangkok Women : Meet Sensual Bangkok Women
Posted on: 3:50 pm on Sep. 7, 2006
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atl
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ouch,
I think I will roll the dice and hope it gets back to at least 38 by november.
I know its not a major difference but between 37.3 and 38 (like 2900baht) but that is alot of smaller christmas gifts at jatujak for my nieces/nephews/work colleagues.
I will just keep my fingers crossed it doesnt drop below 37 by november.....where are the 44b to $1 days ???????????????
I will probably just transfer most of my cash into my thai farmer account a couple weeks before we leave and exchanging 5 hundred for walking money when we first arrive. Does any more experienced members have an opinion on this?
I think it is a $45 sur charge for tranferring from my bank into TFB...I would feel better not paying my banks $5 out of country fee + its $2 fee for non BoA ATM withdrawels every time I hit the ATM!!!
Not to mention, I can take out smaller amounts at a time.... and try to eliminate those nights we have all had with booze in our belly and a pocket full of cash, waking up "WTF How did I spend so much $$$"
thanks for the update mel...even though it was not good, I wont hold it against the messenger LOL
cheers,
atl
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Thai Girls : Meet Sexy Thai Girls
Posted on: 4:46 pm on Sep. 7, 2006
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S M E G M A
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Quote: from atl on 5:54 am on Sep. 8, 2006
....where are the 44b to $1 days ??.
If you miss those days, you would certainly grieve for the days of Chinese New year 1998. What a holiday that was at THB 55/USD. Those were the days....
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Sexy Bangkok Girls
Posted on: 5:48 pm on Sep. 7, 2006
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Yurune
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or from 38 to 90+ overnight for the GBP....I made a killing on that one....
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Attractive Thai Girls
Posted on: 7:33 pm on Sep. 7, 2006
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issanking
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Quote: from Yurune on 8:41 am on Sep. 8, 2006
or from 38 to 90+ overnight for the GBP....I made a killing on that one
Me too I was in koaw san went to change money a little pissed and the guy gave me 9,000 + baht for a £100,
i questioned him then bought loads off baht,
the thais were selling dollars in world trade
funny old world
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Bangkok Women : Meet Beautiful Thai Girls
Posted on: 8:23 pm on Sep. 7, 2006
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shoke
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This post-coup commentary comes from Morgan Stanley, Hong Kong. They see THB35/USD1 as a best case scenario, THB40 as the most probable, and THB45 as possible but improbable for now. For the broad economy, reasonably pessimistic for now. But of course, they can be wrong.
We are cutting our Thai GDP growth forecasts to 2.4% from 3.5% for 2H06 and to 4% from 4.5% for 2007, on intensifying uncertainty as a result of last night’s military coup. We see the political situation remaining unsettled for at least another year.
The Thai economy has already lost momentum due to high oil prices and rising interest rates. The case for a recovery was based on a revival of investment, which appears unrealistic now. We expect government investment to remain stalled and private investment to weaken further on worsening sentiment.
Fresh round of political uncertainty
Higher oil prices and interest rates have already hurt private consumption in Thailand. Private consumption growth slowed to 3.9% in 1H06 from 4.3% in 2H05 and 4.6% in 1H05. Sustained political uncertainty has led to weaker growth in both government expenditure and private investment. Overall domestic demand (ex-inventories) slowed to 4% in 1H06 from 7% in 2005. Export growth has also weakened.
Last night’s military coup has brought a fresh round of uncertainty to the political environment in Thailand. Although the leader of the coup, General Sonthi Boonyaratglin, has announced his intention to implement a quick transition to an interim government, we believe that the final outcome is far from clear. How long will it take to move towards a democratically elected government? Will there be an effective split or a complete splintering of TRT (Thai Rak Thai) ? Moreover, the opposition party is not fully positioned to a form a full majority government on its own, considering its relatively poor reach in the rural parts of the country. How long will the constitutional amendment take? Who will assume interim leadership?
Slowdown likely to be prolonged
The military coup was not expected by the market at all. It appears that the market has systematically underestimated political risk in Thailand. We believe that the uncertainty could last through to 2007, severely affecting the macro outlook.
We see three potential scenarios for political developments going forward:
1. Stagflation (USD/THB at 40) : The military puts together a series of ineffective and semi-legitimate governments as in the past. These governments are cobbled together with some known faces, but are not organized effectively to move the economy forward. Each government lasts a short period of time without effective governance. Business confidence continues to sink slowly. The economy goes into stagflation. Capital flight weighs on the baht, resulting in inflationary pressure and restraining the central bank from cutting interest rates. The economy is stuck with stagflation through to 2007. USD/THB is likely to trade at around 40 by end-2007.
2. Snap-back (USD/THB at 35) : The military quickly organizes an election with the participation of all parties. A legitimate government is formed in early 2007. The TRT or another form of it is most likely the winner. Government-led investment gets back on track. The economy snaps back and, after pausing in 2H06, delivers 8% growth in 2007 on reviving capex. The central bank raises interest rates again. USD/THB falls to 35. Inflation falls to below 3%.
3. Chaos (USD/THB at 45) : Mr. Thaksin’s supporters fight back. The provinces descend into chaos. Business confidence collapses and capex vanishes. Inflation spikes up to 10%. However, fearing for the economy, the central bank doesn’t raise interest rates. The Thai economy sinks into a vicious spiral of baht depreciation and rising inflation. Towards the end of 2007, the Bangkok middle classes stage a revolution to bring back democracy. USD/THB rises to 45.
We believe that the first scenario — i.e., stagflation — is the most likely outcome. The snap-back scenario would involve the TRT in one form or another. This would probably have happened without the coup. The staging of a coup suggests that the existing course of political development was unacceptable to the military. We think the ‘chaos’ scenario is unlikely for now as the Bangkok middle classes will most probably accept the situation for the time being, while the rural population has historically played little part in changing national politics.
Cutting our growth estimates for 2H06 and 2007
We were already building in a sharp deceleration in 2H06 GDP growth, to 3.5% from 5.5% in 1H06. We now lower our 2H06 growth estimate further, to 2.4%, as the fresh round of uncertainty looks set to further dampen consumer and business sentiment. We now expect private consumption growth to decelerate to 2.5% in 2H06, versus our previous estimate of 3.3%. We see households slowing down purchases of discretionary items (e.g., automobiles, restaurant services and other personal services) while still maintaining some growth in purchases of non-discretionary items (e.g., food and beverages). Similarly, we are cutting our private investment growth forecast to -0.4% from 3%.
Fixed investment growth experienced a sharp slowdown from double-digit levels in 1H05 to 5.2% in 1H06. The case for recovery was based on the removal of political uncertainty and commencement of a government-led investment push. However, considering the unsettled political situation, we think that government investment is unlikely to pick up any time soon. In addition, the increasing uncertainty is likely to discourage private investment. We do not anticipate investment growth in Thailand in 2H06.
Net exports recovered in 3Q06 and have been range-bound. Export growth is likely to weaken on a high base, but sluggish domestic demand and slower import growth should help maintain poor but positive growth in external demand.
We believe that the wild card for the 2H06 growth outlook is inventory. There was substantial de-stocking in 1H06, and some rebound is possible in 2H06. However, considering the level of political uncertainty, businesses are unlikely to stock up significantly in anticipation of better sales ahead.
We are also cutting our 2007 GDP growth estimate to 4%, versus 4.5% previously, based on our expectation of slower consumption and investment growth.
Long-term growth outlook worsens
We believe that the Thai economy has structural barriers to high growth, principally over-dependence on oil, poor infrastructure and lack of quality education for the poor. The country requires a powerful and effective government to drive investment and de-bottleneck the economy.
The military coup is not just a cyclical event — it signals weak governments ahead, in our view. Hence, the structural barriers to high growth are unlikely to be removed. As a result, we see a risk that the valuation of Thai assets may be lowered fundamentally.
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Attractive Thai Girls
Posted on: 3:47 am on Sep. 22, 2006
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FIB
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Quote: from shoke on 5:05 pm on Sep. 22, 2006
But of course, they can be wrong.
With such a broad range [35 - 45] Baht to the dollar, it's going to be pretty difficult for them to be wrong...
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Thai Girls : Meet Active Thai Girls
Posted on: 3:53 am on Sep. 22, 2006
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Broken Leg
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Quote: from FIB on 5:11 pm on Sep. 22, 2006
Quote: from shoke on 5:05 pm on Sep. 22, 2006
But of course, they can be wrong.
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With such a broad range [35 - 45] Baht to the dollar, it's going to be pretty difficult for them to be wrong...
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Thai Women : Meet Matured Thai Women
Posted on: 4:22 am on Sep. 22, 2006
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atl
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WTF,
36.7 baht to dollar.....sterling at 69. something
that shows me that the baht isnt nesserily getting stronger as the frekin dollar is getting weaker...
right on dubya...right on brother...I know its not all his fault but insert your political retort in another section...there are many
man, I wasnt thinking it would get back to 39 or 40, but $3500 to $4000 changed to under 37 is a few massages, a couple nice tailored shirts, a nice evening out for myself, or more unselfishly most of my christmas shopping at jatujak (nieces/nephews/clients),
please dont fall anymore!!!!!
atl
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Attractive Thai Girls
Posted on: 12:00 pm on Oct. 27, 2006
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