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Valetta
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Except for $US,the Yen,and the Swiss Franc the Baht has maintained its strength relative to other currencies.Why?
It is not so hard to explain the Baht`s depreciation against the $US,Yen,and Swiss Franc. In times of very considerable financial and economic uncertainty(such as now) there is a much increased demand for currencies which the market thinks will remain strong.In the last few months hot money has bought $US Treasury Bonds,Japanese nationals have liquidated many of their non US investments and repatriated the proceeds to Japan,and the Swiss Franc has been a safe port in an economic storm for many decades.
However,while these facts explain the Baht`s depreciation relative to these currencies they do not explain why it has been so modest,or why the Baht has outperformed currencies such as the GB pound,the Euro,and $AUS.
I think the following reasons go a long way towards providing an explanation.
(1) Rice,Thailand`s main export,has been in strong demand,and its price has increased very considerably.
(2) Thailand`s financial institutions have withstood surprisingly well the global pressures which have caused havoc to banks and related financial institutions in the US,GB,and mainland Europe.It seems as if "simple" Thai bankers avoided purchasing the "sophisticated" financial instruments that "smart" western bankers could not resist,perhaps because Thai bankers did not understand them.
(3) Having learnt from the Asian currency meltdown of 10 years ago Thailand has maintained very high foreign exchange reserves,thus discouraging any speculative run on the Baht.
(4) Thailand`s interest rates have remained relatively high encouraging investors to keep their money in Thailand.
(5) Until early December,2008 Tourism remained strong maintaining the demand for Baht.Perhaps the slight fall in the Baht in the last few days is due to a decline in Tourism,and the associated losses caused by the airport closures now working their way through the Thai economy.
(6) Although Australia has shared Thailand`s relative freedom from the financial collapse suffered by banks in US,GB,and Continental Europe, unlike Thailand there has been a significant reduction in the global demand for its main exports of coal and metals.The$AUS has also been adverslely affected by mainly Japanese investors withdrawing short term funds taking advantage of relatively high Australian interest rates(the carry trade).
Unless there is a significant and prelonged drop in the number of tourists coming to Thailand(not yet demonstrated) I very much doubt that the value of the Baht is likely to change very much in the next 6 months.
But what do you think?
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Thai Girls : Meet Sexy Thai Girls
Posted on: 8:08 pm on Jan. 7, 2009
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thailife
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ok, time to get real... $100 billion in foreign reserves is nothing,.... this can be destroyed in a matter of days if people wanted... the biggest change is that since 1997 Thai have issued debt in Baht, not in dollars, this keeps a lid on Baht runs...... but let's dig deeper......a controled currency, basically a third world country, who gives a shit? no one........
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Bangkok Women : Meet Sensual Bangkok Women
Posted on: 10:53 pm on Jan. 7, 2009
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Valetta
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Thailife I see little evidence that the current Baht exchange rate is the result of government financial intervention.
It is certainly one of the functions of a central bank to buy and sell its nations currency so as to avoid excessive swings in the value of the currency,especially where the bank considers the swing to be out of step with the economic/financial fundamentals.But there is just no evidence that the BOT has made any significant sales or purchases of the Baht in recent months.The fact that there is now very little difference between the on shore and off shore Baht exchange rate supports this view.
Nor can it be said that the Baht is a controlled currency in the way that the Hong Kong dollar and the Renimbi are in that they are pegged to the $US.The Baht was pegged to the $US until about 10 years ago,but not since.
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Sexy Bangkok Girls
Posted on: 3:07 pm on Jan. 8, 2009
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thailife
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there is a bangkok bank office in lower manhatten... go in and ask if you can short Baht.... the answer is 'bo'.... you want to know why? before 97 most Thai loans wer ein U.S. dollars... that's what created the collapse.... read a little bit abou tthat timeframe and you will understand... So after 97 in order to stabalize the baht, the Thai govt. pushed for baht denominated debt....talk about currency control, you need to do a little homework.... go out to ANY bank and see if you can short Baht... you can't... you know why? Govt. control........ you don't think the thai central bank doe snot interven? They do and in huge ways (in relation to the baht float).... just research on Blooomberg or other sources... many aerticles about them intervening.....
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Thai Women : Meet Matured Thai Women
Posted on: 4:35 pm on Jan. 8, 2009
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Mel Gibson
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Rice has been a BIG earner for Thailand,,, actually interesting that the Australian government said no to their offer of creating a rice market in OPEC style ( dictate price by ciontrolling supply).
But the big dollars, pounds, euro come from Farang suckers,, think about it from an economic situation,, farang pays hotel, food, bar-fines, drinks, puts money for pussy,, yeh I know SMALL change,, but he does it again and again,, then,,,,, then,,, Sin Sot,,, motor-boke for brother,,, better house for parents,,buy land in wifes name etc etc. Total OUTLAY for Thailand ??? Basically ZERO,, so they get maybe US$200,000 +for giving nothing The land is still there,, is still owned by a Thai.
Almost a perfect system. Add in the sick buffalo scams etc and your talking BIG dollars.
Competition is what will even out this baht situation.Vietnam is a sleeping Giant in both rice and farang scams,, only a matter of time until they free up access for,,, ahh for ENTERTAINMENT and the pizes that farang money brings.
Mel
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Bangkok Women : Meet Beautiful Thai Girls
Posted on: 5:47 am on Jan. 10, 2009
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Mel Gibson
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A commodity with a HUGE return on investment,, my point exactly.
Mel
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Thai Girls : Meet Active Thai Girls
Posted on: 12:44 pm on Jan. 10, 2009
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Mel Gibson
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Return on investemnt for Thailand,, EXCELLENT,, they supplied crap, I paid heavily,, they even have 2 new citizens ( half Thai ) that have more intelect than 90% of the Thai ( Isaan) population.
"Thailand" wins again
Mel
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Attractive Thai Girls
Posted on: 1:22 pm on Jan. 10, 2009
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