| |
sanook269
|
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2004/12/30/opinion/index.php?news=opinion_15927884.html
THAI TALK: Horrendous failure of our national warning system
Published on December 30, 2004
"Why weren't we warned?" This question has been echoing around the tsunami-wrecked coast in the South ever since Sunday. The answers, none of which is very satisfactory, are at best evasive.
Based on interviews given by senior officials from the Meteorological Department and the Geological Resources Department, though, the official response could be paraphrased thus:
"The public was not warned because we weren't sure. Tsunamis have rarely been reported in the Indian Ocean. We're more familiar with tsunamis in the Pacific."
Not very convincing. The very rationale for a warning system is to expect the unexpected. That's what forecasters are there for. That's what monitoring natural disasters is all about.
A much more tell-tale explanation of the massive failure given by another Weather Bureau official would go something like this:
"Since we haven't had a tsunami in the Indian Ocean for decades, we were reluctant to issue a warning. Six years earlier, the then director-general of the Weather Bureau issued a tsunami warning for off of the coast of Phuket. One never materialised. A lot of people there condemned him for making a prediction that they claimed could scare off tourists. The public outcry there at the time practically banned him from ever visiting Phuket again. Frankly, we had this very bad memory in mind when we were considering whether or not to issue a warning."
Tragic but true. Absurd and eerily surreal. A lot of lives could have been saved on that day had the country's main weather warning agency been operating on a strictly professional basis – and not on the subjective judgement of the officials in charge.
It was out of fear of being subjected to social and political pressure that the government agencies concerned decided to resort to negligence of duty – to expose hundreds of thousands of people to grave danger – in order to protect their own social status. This is just one aspect of Thai society's currently fast-deteriorating professional standards in almost every field of public service. It is a testament to the erosion of courage and commitment to professionalism throughout the entire country.
The standard procedure, as laid down by the Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre in 1965, dictates that any underwater earthquake with a magnitude of greater than 6.5 must automatically trigger the tsunami warning system. That morning, the seismological monitoring section noted an earthquake initially registering 8.6 on the Richter scale. But bureaucratic inertia and timidity – instead of a clear sense of alertness and emergency management – reigned.
Had the officials in charge that morning been working with a clear-cut, well-rehearsed and properly communicated procedure, a tsunami warning would have been sounded. It shouldn't have mattered to the experts in charge at the bureau on Sunday morning that such a warning might inconvenience hotel owners or tour operators in the South. They shouldn't have even worried about possible negative feedback from certain quarters that the agency was overreacting or that it was too quick to push the panic button. They have a job to do, and a very important job it is too, one that concerns the safety of every citizen in the country. They are duty bound – professionally and ethically – to perform their task honourably. Potential public misunderstandings and undesirable political pressure are but some of the basic occupational hazards.
Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has promised to overhaul the entire disaster-protection system. He discovered just how deplorable the whole warning, rescue and emergency systems were when he went down South himself to supervise the rescue mission earlier this week. He said he learned first-hand that the country had no adequate warning system in place, no back-up communications, no emergency power supplies, no contingency plan to coordinate relief measures. What's worse, he said that local officials hadn't even gone on alert. The tsunami had already smashed six southern provinces when he discovered that these bureaucrats wouldn't even start to respond to the crisis "until I ordered them to". Why were they awaiting orders from the country's chief executive? The simple answer, drawing from recent examples – bird flu, Sars, even Bangkok's horrendous traffic jams – is: they just wanted to save their own butts. That's how they've been trained to think and taught to act.
The PM complained that the Meteorology Department did issue a vague warning (about the earthquake) that "hyped up the series of aftershocks, which generated unwarranted fear that further complicated rescue efforts". Instead of blaming them for "hyping things up", the chief executive should have asked them: "What do you need to carry out your usually little-appreciated but crucial task in a more independent and professional manner?" Not only have bureaucratic inertia, budgetary constraints and political interference contributed to this unprecedented calamity, but also the very attitudes towards danger inherent in our social fabric.
In the end, the solution lies in making a conscientious effort to turn Thailand into a real knowledge-based society, one in which disaster monitoring and danger warnings are an integral part of daily life. Let it not be said after this catastrophe, which has touched everybody, passes that official responses simply returned to business as usual – immediate interest, instant assistance, but long-term neglect – because we failed to tackle the "epicentre" of this earth-shaking issue.
Suthichai Yoon
The Nation
|
Bangkok Girls : Meet Attractive Thai Girls
Posted on: 11:35 pm on Dec. 30, 2004
|
|
|
|
thaiaficionado
|
It's very sad indeed that there are always 'disasters waiting to happen'. A catastrophic event has to occur to mobilize a response before a threat is acknowledged. Just look at some mentally unstable air travellers trying to break through cockpit doors before 9/11, not only the squadron sighting but also the sinking of a mini-sub at Pearl Harbor, or that uncontrolled intersection down the street that won't receive a much needed traffic light until a child on a bicycle is struck by a car.
The warnings are all out there. It just takes someone to step forward and champion the cause.
|
Thai Girls : Meet Sexy Thai Girls
Posted on: 12:49 am on Dec. 31, 2004
|
|
Hermanolobo
|
Quote: from thaiaficionado on 12:43 pm on Dec. 31, 2004
It's very sad indeed that there are always 'disasters waiting to happen'. A catastrophic event has to occur to mobilize a response before a threat is acknowledged. Just look at some mentally unstable air travellers trying to break through cockpit doors before 9/11, not only the squadron sighting but also the sinking of a mini-sub at Pearl Harbor, or that uncontrolled intersection down the street that won't receive a much needed traffic light until a child on a bicycle is struck by a car.
The warnings are all out there. It just takes someone to step forward and champion the cause.
Sadly this is all too common and from what I have read recently about the history of such events what Thaiaficionado says is accurate.
It wouldn't surprise me if the Pacific Tsunami Warning centre wanted to contact someone but didn't know where to start for the Indian Ocean.
Also the time it has taken for a Tsunami to reach places in the Pacific is much greater than would be for the Indian Ocean.
I saw a news report someone had posted that Diego Garcia was warned and they took the appropriate measures. Whether a phone call to the respective governments or military could have made any difference is debateable although something of the order from the Commanding Officer to his opposite number in Thailand like,"There's a damn great wave coming your way!" could have made some difference - but for the very reasons outlined in the last two postings in the real World things are never that simple or efficient.
What is needed is to help the people of these regions now - whatever it takes.
|
Bangkok Girls : Meet Sexy Bangkok Girls
Posted on: 9:24 am on Dec. 31, 2004
|
|
Mr Alan
|
Here are the facts:
1. There are no warning systems in other major oceans (besides the Pacific) even though major developed nations of North America and Western Europe would be affected by a Tsunami in the Atlantic. This is because Tsunamis are extremely rare in the Atlantic, unlike the Pacific where they are common. Before last week, Tsunamis were rare in the Indian Ocean, and a magnitude 9.0 earthquake is unprecedented during modern history (since earthquakes could be measured).
2. The US military base at Diego Garcia did not escape damage because they were warned in advance. They escaped damage because there was only a small affect of the Tsunami at that location. Here is a an explanation:
"Initial indications are that Diego Garcia was not affected by the Andaman Tsunami of 26 December 2004. It is located south of the tip of India, well with in range of what the tsunami, with a max elevation of 22 and an average elevation of only 4 feet. Civilians monitoring shortwave radio reported on rec.radio.shortwave that a female operator, in answer to a query from an aircraft after giving weather information, reported no ill effects from the earthquake.
Officials said the Diego Garcia Navy Support Facility, which houses about 1,700 military personnel and 1,500 civilian contractors, suffered no damage related to the earthquake and ensuing tsunamis. Personnel at the facility reported no unusual activity or problems over the weekend. Diego Garcia, the southernmost island in the Chagos Archipelago, sits about 1,000 miles south of India and roughly 2,000 miles from the earthquake’s epicenter. Even though an earthquake like Sunday’s will radiate destructive waves in all directions, the damage caused by the water differs greatly depending on the undersea topography.
Favorable ocean topography minimized the tsunami’s impact on the atoll. Diego Garcia is part of the Chagos Archipelago, situated on the southernmost part of the Chagos-Laccadive Ridge. To the east lies the Chagos Trench, a 400 mile long, underwater canyon that ranges in depth from less than 1,00 meters below the surface to depths that plunge to over 5,000 meters. It is one of the deepest regions of the Indian Ocean. Diego Garcia is located to the west of Chagos Trench, which runs north and south. The depth of the Chagos Trench and grade to the shores does not allow for tsunamis to build before passing the atoll. The result of the earthquake was seen as a tidal surge estimated at six feet.
Tsunami runup at the point of impact will depend on how the energy is focused, the travel path of the tsunami waves, the coastal configuration, and the offshore topography. Small islands with steep slopes usually experience little runup - wave heights there are only slightly greater than on the open ocean. This is the reason that islands with steep-sided fringing or barrier reefs are only at moderate risk from tsunamis."
http://globalsecurity.org/military/facility/diego-garcia.htm
|
Bangkok Girls : Meet Attractive Thai Girls
Posted on: 9:41 am on Dec. 31, 2004
|
|
Ballsburstin
|
Hmm, interesting post about the underwater topograpghy affecting the runup and damage. Steep sided islands allowed a certain amount of the wave energy to be reflected back out to sea -- you can see this effect on a small scale when watching waves bounce into a seawall or cliff where the water is deep enough to prevent wave cresting -- rather than released on the shoreline. Good news for those on Garcia.
- Balls
|
Bangkok Women : Meet Beautiful Thai Girls
Posted on: 10:24 am on Dec. 31, 2004
|
|
black cats
|
Quote: from Mr Alan on 1:35 pm on Dec. 31, 2004
2. The US military base at Diego Garcia did not escape damage because they were warned in advance.
It may be nit picking to point out that the military base on DG is a British military installation, since the US uses it extensively. But the island itself is definetly British. Everything that goes on there is supposed to be hush hush, but check out this link. http://www.infoplease.com/spot/dg.html Poor Ilois, I hope they win back what's rightfully theirs.
|
Bangkok Girls : Meet Attractive Thai Girls
Posted on: 11:18 am on Dec. 31, 2004
|
|
Hermanolobo
|
That journalist that wrote the article that was posted from the Irish Independent was either mis-informed or perhaps a little biased. Even so Diego Garcia was warned and it is a pity nobody else was also.
Four years ago a team of scientists visited La Palma in the Canaries off the west coast of Africa. They discovered if one of the volcanoes really blows there a land mass roughly the size of the Isle of Man will drop into the sea causing an enormous wave. This will race across the Atlantic.
There should some kind of warning system for this possible event.
Years ago there used to be a TV series called 'Thunderbirds' - it was just puppet fantasy about International rescue.
I think the nations of the World need to sit down and develop a real 'Thunderbirds' ?
i.e. Co-ordinated International Rescue.
|
Thai Girls : Meet Active Thai Girls
Posted on: 12:47 pm on Dec. 31, 2004
|
|
Mr Alan
|
Quote: from Hermanolobo on 11:41 am on Dec. 31, 2004
That journalist that wrote the article that was posted from the Irish Independent was either mis-informed or perhaps a little biased. Even so Diego Garcia was warned and it is a pity nobody else was also.
It is NOT a fact that the US military base was warned about a Tsunami. They were notified of the earthquake. But anyway, the US Military did nothing about any such "warning." They took no precautionary actions against the Tsunami. The fact that they suffered no damage, had nothing to do with whether or not they were warned.
The reports of the earthquake was immediately reported by the USGS and others and were widespread in the press immediately after it happened, so in effect, everyone was warned. But since Tsunamis are very rare in the Indian Ocean, no one did anything about it. I doubt that most would have been notified in time anyway, even if the governments knew a Tsunami was coming. I also doubt that it will happen again in the Indian Ocean within the next 100 years.
If you look at the pitiful response of the Indonesian and Sri Lankan governments right now after the disaster, it is inconceivable that they could have been coordinated enough to notify their citizens 30-45 minutes before hand. Many of the most hard-hit regions in these two countries are in acitve war zones.
It is a pity that people who have a personal vendetta against the US are allowed to spew such lies repeatedly.
|
Thai Women : Meet Matured Thai Women
Posted on: 1:39 am on Jan. 1, 2005
|
|
Mr Alan
|
Quote: from black cats on 10:12 am on Dec. 31, 2004
It may be nit picking to point out that the military base on DG is a British military installation, since the US uses it extensively. But the island itself is definetly British. Everything that goes on there is supposed to be hush hush, but check out this link. http://www.infoplease.com/spot/dg.html Poor Ilois, I hope they win back what's rightfully theirs.
Yes, it is Brittish territory. But there is a US military base there. There are US military bases in England also.
|
Bangkok Girls : Meet Attractive Thai Girls
Posted on: 1:46 am on Jan. 1, 2005
|
|
| |
|
