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IBFarang
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Actually tracking and getting real dependable numbers on iphone sales is not such an straight forward a process either. Estimates for the first two days of sales ranged wildly from 200,000 phones to 700,000 phones. The only hard numbers seemed to come from AT&T – in that they confirmed they had activated around 150,000 phones in the first two days. Now if AT&T only activated 150,000 phones either there were a lot of people that decided to pay hundreds of dollars to simply have the phone (and not actually use it), or there were lots of folks that tried and were not able to activate the phone, or not many more than 150,000 phones were sold in those first two days?
A few days ago a group called isupply made a press release stating that iphone sales outpaced blackberry, palm, Motorola, etc, etc, etc, in July. This release was based upon a consumer survey – an online consumer survey none the less. In the same press release they went on to say that based upon its forecast Apple would sell 4.5 million iphone this year. Assuming linear sales (which I agree is a stretch because Nov and Dec should be big sales months) that would be around 750,000 phones per month. Which means Apple should have put the 1 million mark behind them long ago – but they have not.
Then again they (isupply) revealed July sales were around 220,000 phones, so even if you buy the 270,000 story for two days of June, add in the 220,000 phones in July Apple is still short of half a million which means sales in August and September need to outpace July to hit the million mark. Maybe August sales did not live up to expectations and dumping the price is a hail mary to get September sales numbers up enough to hit the million phone sales by the end of the quarter?
Still wondering how isupply thinks Apple will sell 4.5 million by the end of the year - Nov and Dec will have to have big time sales to hit that type of number.
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Thai Girls : Meet Sexy Thai Girls
Posted on: 6:37 pm on Sep. 6, 2007
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ThaidUp
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Actually Apple is selling a lot of phones but they are using funny accounting techniques to ammortize the sales.
Now in regards to AT&T's numbers there is a piece of the puzzle many people did not figure out that you actually had to use a computer to activate the phone. Many grandpa did not realize that and coupled to the fact that AT&T system puked on all the activity and customer support so many of the activations splled into the following week past the weekend of the end of June quarter. Lastly, lest us not forget all the people who were chomping at the bit to diassemble the phones to see what it inside them destroying them in the process and the people putting them in blenders. Also, for some people it the same as in woman, the thrill is in the chase and they are just thrilled to being able to obtain a hard to get item and never use it.
As one BTF member said "The thrill of girls leave me as so as they remove their clothes, the excitement for me is to get as many girls to that point."
Now if anyone doubts the markeeting genius of Steve Jobs just look at the cult following he has created for his products. You cannot say anything bad about them or else they will put their warth upon you. I have seen such brainwashing of the masses since Hitler.
I like Apple products too, but the iPhone just does not have the main features that I myself use besides making a phone call. I do not need instant access to email on a 24/7 basis and get constant interruptions to send Nigerean's money, lose 10 pounds or get a bigger dick.
and as far a business email..Do we really need to send e-mail correspondence to the same person sometimes three or four times in one day just to say that you agree with something?
Bill Gates did apologize for that POS the Zume MP3 player with a lower price, but nobody noticed. I think he will have a better chance curing AIDS with his foundation then making an MP3 player that is worth a shit.
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Bangkok Women : Meet Sensual Bangkok Women
Posted on: 7:23 pm on Sep. 6, 2007
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ThaidUp
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Quote: from Abrak on 5:53 pm on Sep. 6, 2007
Well I just dont get Apple. One minute they are irritating customers by making them tie up to a telecom operator like AT&T presumably to make some extra margin. Next they go and knock US$200 off the price of a product which is already flying out of the window faster than they can produce it.
And all within 10 weeks of product launch....
You truly cannot recognize put marketing genius. That is why Apple went in the toilet when Steve Jobs left and now back on top when he returned.
With the release of the new Ipod touch it is basically the Iphone without the phone, so many of the components from the Iphone. This allows Apple to get bottom line pricing from their suppliers with the volume they use. They have single handed locked up by contract 25% of the worldwide production of Flash memory. This is unprecedented.
The name of the game now is gaining market share. In three short months Apple is the best selling smart phone. Add Europe by the end of the year, Asia next year and new model releases correcting short comings and I predict Apple will be the number 2 phone provider in the world by mid-2009. Apple got Nokia and Moto shaking in their boots. So what is the best thing to do..Keep the pressure on these people with price reductions and new model releases.
What I cannot understand is how inept SONY, Nokia and Motorola are at upgrading their phone OS's over the years.
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Thai Girls : Meet Sexy Thai Girls
Posted on: 7:46 pm on Sep. 6, 2007
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Abrak
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Well here is why I am still confused...
Let's say Apple has sold 1m units - that really is piddly shit in the telecoms world. Take the best selling high end handset - the motorola razr - originally launched at US$400 unit - that has sold between 30 - 40m units over the past year.
Seems to me is the iphone is half as good as Daffy reckons - and he has at least used the thing - then it would have sold 10m units by now if a) it wasnt restricted to AT&T and b) it wasnt restricted to the US and c) it was 3G.
Perhaps what TU is getting at is that the product is more hype than substance. It is better that we all want one than actually have one and find it is just as useless as every other smart phone out there.
Still knocking a third off a price of a product 10 weeks after launch - not usually a sign marketing genius. Still at US$399 I might buy one - can throw it away if it doesnt work properly.
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Sexy Bangkok Girls
Posted on: 9:06 pm on Sep. 6, 2007
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IBFarang
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Quote: from ThaidUp on 9:17 am on Sep. 7, 2007
Now in regards to AT&T's numbers there is a piece of the puzzle many people did not figure out that you actually had to use a computer to activate the phone. Many grandpa did not realize that and coupled to the fact that AT&T system puked on all the activity and customer support so many of the activations splled into the following week past the weekend of the end of June quarter. Lastly, lest us not forget all the people who were chomping at the bit to diassemble the phones to see what it inside them destroying them in the process and the people putting them in blenders. Also, for some people it the same as in woman, the thrill is in the chase and they are just thrilled to being able to obtain a hard to get item and never use it.
So AT&T activates around 150,000 phones; Apple says they sold 270,000 phones - A difference of around 120,000 phones.
AT&T says no more than 10,000 people who attempted to activate the phone were delayed in activating them – so now we are down to 110,000 phones.
Some people bought phones to re-sell – OK – Thru the end of July (I’ll give those that bought them on the first two days the whole month to sell it) just under 10,000 phones had been sold on e-bay. Lets double that number to 20,000 not activated because they were bought for resale – now we are down to 90,000 phones unaccounted for.
Let’s say there was an additional 10,000 tech geeks who wanted nothing more than to take there expensive phone apart (or put them in a blender) as soon as they got their hands on them – now we are down to 80,000 phones.
Do you really think there were 80,000 grandpa’s (or grandma’s) out there that could not activate the phone because they did not realize they needed a computer?
The real telling tail is that the 270,000 phones Apple claims to have sold in the first two days INCLUDE the wholesales phone sales to AT&T. So the number includes phones that were still sitting in stock in AT&T stores across the country. Pretty good chance a few of those phones were included in the 220,000 phones that isupply estimates were sold in July.
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Thai Women : Meet Matured Thai Women
Posted on: 9:13 pm on Sep. 6, 2007
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IBFarang
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Quote: from ThaidUp on 9:40 am on Sep. 7, 2007
Not sure exactly what “put marketing genius” is – but I’ll give Apple credit for supplying some good products over the years. If the company was run by real genius Jobs would have never had to come back – because he would never have gone in the first place.
As for the 25% market share of flash memory – this is based upon projections and not current standings (as I understand it). Additionally the supply in the flash market took a hit this year due to production problems related to making the newer chips – then throw in the accidental power disruption at Samsung and the supply gets even tighter. Actually prior the latest announcement from Apply introducing the ipod touch some analysts were predicting a glut in the flash memory market due to slowing sales of the other Apple music players. All in Apple still has a tremendous impact in the flash market – but it swings both ways.
I am not sold on the numbers that supposedly support the statement that Apple is the best selling smart phone (see my earlier post in regard to isupply). I am sure dumping the price, introducing it to Europe, and the holiday season will help increase their market share – and IMHO is probably the main reason for the price dump (sales behind where Apple wanted them – and therefore market share not yet where they want it to be).
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Bangkok Women : Meet Beautiful Thai Girls
Posted on: 9:34 pm on Sep. 6, 2007
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ThaidUp
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Well the 25% number is real and not based upon projections as Apple needs to lock in the supply by contract to insure that others including Samsung won't eat up the supply of Flash RAM.
Forget the analysts more and more items are consuming flash so forget the glut. Now they are talking about using flash in the OS instead of hard drives to speed things up. The problem is these memory guys never make money. There is are only a few suppliers let they keep on producing more and more and cutting prices and are constantly losing money. It is a pittyful situtation where one plant loses power for a bit and the whole Flash market hold their breath.
In reply to Abrak, what company who entered the phone market first ends up selling 1 million phones the first 90 days? I do not think any.
Yeah Motorola can sell 40 million phones now because of all your reasons, but Apple will get there in short order. The 3G thing is not that big of an issue, but having removable SIM's and ability to go onto any network will be in the Asia region.
A better real picture will emerge from AT&T in Oct after they release the 3rd quarter activation numbers.
Still, AT&T's early activation numbers could prove to be slightly misleading, as they represent the total number of the Apple handsets that were activated in the first 36 hours or so, and not necessarily the total number of units sold to customers during that time. A significant number of early iPhone adopters were seen buying their limit of two handsets at Apple retail stores during the handset's opening weekend, the second of which may have been activated by recipients after the close of AT&T's second fiscal quarter.
The real marketing flop is the new Nano. Was this designed for the US Market?
Although not expected until later this weekend, the first shipments of Apple's new iPod "tubby" nano -- aka iPod "fatboy", iPod "phatty", iPod "bilbo", iPod "stubby", and iPod "biggie smalls" -- began cropping up at the company's retail stores Thursday afternoon.
Hmm.. I think tall and thin will win over short and fat. I am glad I bought the skinny ones. I wonder if the girls will be asking "Is that a Fatty in your pocket or you just happy to see me?"
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Attractive Thai Girls
Posted on: 10:23 pm on Sep. 6, 2007
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IBFarang
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Quote: from ThaidUp on 12:17 pm on Sep. 7, 2007
Well the 25% number is real and not based upon projections as Apple needs to lock in the supply by contract to insure that others including Samsung won't eat up the supply of Flash RAM.
Not to split hairs but this artical from Aug 29th - which uses the report from DRAMexchange clearly states "could" - this does not mean they have, but that they are could end up with 25%. The The "could" was based upon NEW ipod models and the iphone.
Again not to take away from the importance of Apple in this market as the artical makes it pretty clear how big of an impact Apple has. Further more the new annoucement by Apple (assuming it is a new ipod - which it was) will help to prevent oversupply in the market.
http://www.electronista.com/articles/07/08/29/flash.oversupply.and.apple/
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Thai Girls : Meet Active Thai Girls
Posted on: 10:44 pm on Sep. 6, 2007
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DaffyDuck
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Quote: from ThaidUp on 9:40 am on Sep. 7, 2007
What I cannot understand is how inept SONY, Nokia and Motorola are at upgrading their phone OS's over the years.
Agreed, but let's even give them th complacency of the past few years - there wasn't really any competition - what about the last 8 months?
Steve Jobs demonstrated a product that was not going to be available for at least 6 months, back in January. So, any real competitor had 6 months to come up with something, even if it's just a strategy, to beat it, or at least fight it.
What did they all, including Palm, and all other major carriers, do?
NOTHING! Absolutely NOTHING, but sit on their ass, and spin.
Then, after June 29th, the iPhone came and ate them for breakfast, lunch and dinner.
Still, their response was NOTHING (except a few press releases, touting how they are not worried).
That's what is amazing, and that's why you are probably right about where Apple may be by mid-2009.
In the meantime, it's entertaining reading much of the speculation on here about Apple's motives behind the price drops (or rather, the disbelief over what I presented pretty clearly... all I can say, is those of you who know better -- "You just go right ahead believing whatever you wish to believe...")
Regarding the iPod "fatty" nano.... While I'm not too excited about the design, or the colors, I have never heard as many girls exclaim about an iPod "It's so cute, I want one right now!", so it seems to me that they have another winner on their hands (and the black one is quite nice - you change you opinion once you see and touch one. Trust me)
Lastly, Abrak - considering Apple sold more iPhones in this time, than any other product launch ever sold, I wouldn't exactly compare it to the RAZR - which may have sold 40 million, allegedly, after 4 years, and once it dropped to $99.
Apple's goal is a modest 10 million phones in the first 18 months, and chances are they will meet and exceed that goal. That's 10 million phones of one model. Find me one other manufacturer that had a single model, in that price range, sell that many in that period, much less sell 1 million in a 90 day period.
...and before you decry how there's no genius in Steve Jobs' marketing, I'd like to point out that you pretty much just confirmed that by stating "Still at US$399 I might buy one - can throw it away if it doesnt work properly."
I'll maintain that it's to clear inventory and get the stage set for the next generation to be delivered after January. The $399 is being promised and maintained only 'for the holidays', and AT&T advertises it only up to January 31st. Let's just leave it at that, because you guys all know it better anyway 
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Thai Women : Meet Matured Thai Women
Posted on: 11:13 pm on Sep. 6, 2007
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DaffyDuck
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Quote: from IBFarang on 8:31 am on Sep. 7, 2007
Still wondering how isupply thinks Apple will sell 4.5 million by the end of the year - Nov and Dec will have to have big time sales to hit that type of number.
iSuppli is a group known to be notorious for pulling numbers out of their ass. I would not take their numbers too seriously - they love to see themselves talk.
Oh, and I guess the best thing Nokia could come up with was -- google adwords:
http://feeds.tuaw.com/~r/weblogsinc/tuaw/~3/153148502/
Yeah, now there's brilliance in action.
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Attractive Thai Girls
Posted on: 11:27 pm on Sep. 6, 2007
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