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S M E G M A
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Quote: from DaffyDuck on 12:13 pm on Jan. 24, 2008
... trusting 'market consensus' sounds dangerously close to stating that a majority of people somehow knows what they are saying 
Actually, that is not the same. That is a missperception of how "the market" works. The majority can still be wrong, while the consensus of that majority can be right. To illustrate that with one example from another area, during the search for... I do not remember what it was, a sunken submarine or a military aircraft that had fallen into the ocean, and which was not being found, they polled the "experts" to give their best estimates of where they expected it to be. Each made his analysis and gave coordinates of what he thought to be the most likely location. Then they calculated for the coordinates which would show the lowest summation of the squared errors. Near of that location they found what they were looking for. That location was the consensus. The consensus was right, while each expert was wrong (some more and some less).
Another interesting thing is that models that imitate specific experts end up doing better than the experts which they copied. Ironic somehow that you need to have the expert on which to base a model that will end up being better than the expert.
Quote: from DaffyDuck on 12:13 pm on Jan. 24, 2008
... the best advice is still 'only invest in companies you know, and understand'.
That is a good one together with "buy and hold". On average, in the long run, all things considered (transaction costs, opportunity cost for time spent studying the markets, etc.), buy and hold comes top when compared to most strategies.
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Thai Girls : Meet Sexy Thai Girls
Posted on: 7:47 am on Jan. 24, 2008
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DaffyDuck
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Quote: from sai tai on 10:17 pm on Jan. 24, 2008
Nokia reached a 40.2 per cent market share, the highest in its history.
Apple's share of the market was 0.6 per cent.
Apple's stated goal is to reach 1% of the market, so at 0.6%, they seem to be on track.
Nokia's been at their game for over a decade. Apple's been in the phone business for 210 days. You seem to lack perspective.
Quote: from S M E G M A on 11:02 pm on Jan. 24, 2008
That is a good one together with "buy and hold". On average, in the long run, all things considered (transaction costs, opportunity cost for time spent studying the markets, etc.), buy and hold comes top when compared to most strategies.
Agreed, and that's exactly what I'm doing.
I have friends who swear by their 'strategies' in day trading, though oddly enough most of them seem to be eking out an existence, and losing most of their money. Not to say that money can not be made using these strategies, but I feel often that it is not worth the effort and sacrifices that need to be made.
Lastly, here's two good articles on the recent Apple results, and the subsequent 'analyst warnings'.
http://www.roughlydrafted.com/2008/01/23/analysts-investors-take-apple-to-task-for-its-best-quarter-ever/
http://www.roughlydrafted.com/2008/01/23/best-quarter-ever-a-closer-look-at-apples-record-q108-earnings/
Apple's seen an increase of over 2 billion in revenues versus the year ago quarter, and seen it's best quarter ever, so of course, now the fear of the analysts is the usual "Apple can't sustain that growth".
Same guys who swore that Apple was a terrible buy at $13.
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Bangkok Women : Meet Sensual Bangkok Women
Posted on: 9:10 am on Jan. 24, 2008
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bkkz
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Whoopee! AAPL is at 133.47 now! Time to pick some AAPL shares up.
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Thai Girls : Meet Sexy Thai Girls
Posted on: 10:43 am on Jan. 24, 2008
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DaffyDuck
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Exact same spot they were at when I picked up my last 100 shares.
Bear in mind, yesterday, they were at $127 at one point, and ended the day at $139. There'll be more fluctuating going on (I'm waiting for another dip to pick up more, if at all), though I suspect in the next 3-4 months, it'll be back comfortably at 200 once the analyst morons from The Street are figuring out that AAPL is not *only* iPods, but that they are smartly juggling their various revenue streams to maintain consistent growth - and now having added the rental revenue stream, who knows how this keeps going (and a little birdie tells me that at least one studio's rentals are doing a bang up job already)
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Sexy Bangkok Girls
Posted on: 12:59 pm on Jan. 24, 2008
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DaffyDuck
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Quote: from quack quack on 11:45 am on Jan. 25, 2008
AAPL is certainly NOT the only game in town.
It certainly is not - but how well do you really, really *know* the other two you suggested?
- Nokia, who has turned in a stellar quarter, but has a history of majorly missing the boat, and only decided to aggressively pursue the US market after they fell to less than 3% marketshare? Nokia executes, in terms of innovation, badly.
- Nintendo's a sure bet for long-term growth, IMO, but I simply know too little about the company to want to invest in it.
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Thai Women : Meet Matured Thai Women
Posted on: 10:34 pm on Jan. 24, 2008
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DaffyDuck
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Analyst's opinions are purely shots from the hip, and based on perceptions with too little information. Generally, these guys are unable to look an inch forward before their immediate perception - which, considering 'analysts' are supposed to be forward thinking, is ironic.
That's nice for SmithBarney to flip-flop like that, but I'm sure they will change their target about a dozen times over the course of the next 30-45 days.
Personally, of all of these guys, I give American Technology Research analyst Shawn Wu the most credence - he's generally the most balanced, and actually has more of a clue; while I give The Street zero credence, as they barely know their wallet from their ass.
But, that's just me.
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Bangkok Women : Meet Beautiful Thai Girls
Posted on: 7:30 am on Jan. 25, 2008
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S M E G M A
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Quote: from DaffyDuck on 10:45 pm on Jan. 25, 2008
That's nice for SmithBarney to flip-flop like that, but I'm sure they will change their target about a dozen times over the course of the next 30-45 days.
I don´t think so. Actually, it is the other way around most of the time. Analysts are more often criticized for being too slow to change their recommendations. And when they do it, for doing it too gradually. They tend to resist acknowledging they could be wrong, thus they make changes in recommendations slowly. And rarely they really flip-flop (from "strong buy" to "sell" ), but more like slide across the scale (like from "buy" to "hold" and then "underperform" ).
By the way, never give weight just by itself to the bank´s name associated with the recommendation. It is not really SmithBarney, but the analyst hired by SmithBarney. Of course, the company has to formally stand behind its analysts recommendation.... but it doesn´t mean that because the company is a good name all its analysts are as good. Individual analysts make a name for themselves in the market: some are good and some not so good. Not all banks have coverage of the same companies. Some are good covering only certain sectors. For example, in the late 90s it was considered that the best technology team of any Investment Bank was Frank Quattrone´s at Morgan Stanley. Then he was, together with his whole team (including analysts and even secretaries), hired by Deutsche Morgan Grenfell (Deutsche Bank), and then years later he moved, again together with the whole team, to Credit Suisse First Boston. Hiring a team like this can bring considerable business to the bank that hires it, and can make that bank an important player in the specific industry sector very fast.
Analysts are supposed to work on their own and not follow any directive besides their own judgement. This is why they cannot even be exposed to non-public information that his colleagues from the Corporate Finance unit may have... or else he has to get away from commenting on the company until the information becomes public or irrelevant due to being old. Hence the origin of the famous "chinese wall" at IBs. It often happens that an analysts recommendation is at odds with Investment Banking business conducted by the firm; it is difficult to win a corporate deal from a company when your own analysts is recommending selling the stock.
Now back to Apple and the iPhone. Perhaps it would be interesting to check the recommendations given by Apple´s investment banks. Which are Apple´s banks?
Edit: Well, with so much cash and virtually no debt, I doubt Apple has much need for any Investment Bank.... unless it is looking at buying other companies.
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Attractive Thai Girls
Posted on: 12:23 pm on Jan. 25, 2008
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DaffyDuck
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Quote: from S M E G M A on 3:38 am on Jan. 26, 2008
Now back to Apple and the iPhone. Perhaps it would be interesting to check the recommendations given by Apple´s investment banks. Which are Apple´s banks?
Edit: Well, with so much cash and virtually no debt, I doubt Apple has much need for any Investment Bank.... unless it is looking at buying other companies.
Glad you looked that up - Apple generally does its purchases in cash. That's another reason why they are a worthwhile investment.
Compare - AAPL went from a 4 billion $$ cash company to a nearly $16 billion company, in the same time that Microsoft went from a $60 billion company to a $20 billion company (in cash holdings).
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Thai Girls : Meet Active Thai Girls
Posted on: 9:48 pm on Jan. 25, 2008
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DaffyDuck
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Quote: from S M E G M A on 3:38 am on Jan. 26, 2008
By the way, never give weight just by itself to the bank´s name associated with the recommendation. It is not really SmithBarney, but the analyst hired by SmithBarney. Of course, the company has to formally stand behind its analysts recommendation.... but it doesn´t mean that because the company is a good name all its analysts are as good.
Two words: Kevin Chang JP Morgan quickly distanced itself from that idiot's babblings, and I'm sure he's busy analizing Dim Sum dumplings these days, if he's lucky.. (Google his name under 'iPod nano')
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Thai Women : Meet Matured Thai Women
Posted on: 9:54 pm on Jan. 25, 2008
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S M E G M A
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Quote: from DaffyDuck on 1:03 pm on Jan. 26, 2008
Glad you looked that up - Apple generally does its purchases in cash.
However, regardless of how any acquisition is financed (even if purchased with its own cash), believe you me, Apple would still hire at least one IB when involved in a major deal.
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Attractive Thai Girls
Posted on: 11:04 pm on Jan. 25, 2008
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