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SidWenes
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Quote: from S M E G M A on 7:02 am on Feb. 10, 2008
Pitiful is when you end up loosing your shirt just because you think you know better, and you start playing the ups and downs.
I'd suggest a loss is just a loss. There's no further judgment. My loss holding enron isn't more noble than the same amount lost chasing retracements while day trading. You work to understand your errors and move forward to winning trades. In my experience, losses and gains happen with both long term and short term holdings. Using risk managment to avoid losing your pants, your shoes, your car and your house is independent of the trading style.
Thank you for adding diversification to your pedantry.
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Thai Girls : Meet Sexy Thai Girls
Posted on: 8:53 pm on Feb. 9, 2008
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Abrak
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Quote: from DaffyDuck on 1:03 pm on Feb. 9, 2008
I've explained my strategy, which is simple, and I'm sticking with it. The most I would do, ever, is sell of 50% of my AAPL holdings when the stock reaches $200 again, to keep and hold until the next dip.
And that is the is the problem with AAPL it has gone from a stock that everyone wanted to get into to one that everyone wants to sell on the bounce. Nothing wrong with the fundamentals but sentiment has changed.
Still all equities look pretty crap...
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Bangkok Women : Meet Sensual Bangkok Women
Posted on: 3:34 am on Feb. 10, 2008
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S M E G M A
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Quote: from SidWenes on 12:08 pm on Feb. 10, 2008
Thank you for adding diversification to your pedantry.
You are welcome. Any time you want a taste of my pedantry let me know. There is always more and I am always willing to dispense it.
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Thai Girls : Meet Sexy Thai Girls
Posted on: 7:15 am on Feb. 10, 2008
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DaffyDuck
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Quote: from Abrak on 6:49 pm on Feb. 10, 2008
And that is the is the problem with AAPL it has gone from a stock that everyone wanted to get into to one that everyone wants to sell on the bounce. Nothing wrong with the fundamentals but sentiment has changed.
Yeah, but isn't that the issue with all 'darling' stocks - they go up and down whenever the market gets really excited over them? Then, regardless of the actual performance of the company, most of the armchair traders end up listening to analysts, or don't make that 'instant killing', and they jump ship, only to come back.
I've been holding on to AAPL stock since it was at $13, and I have been seeing this same cycle, over and over again. Heck,I got 'warnings' when buying at $13, got the same warnings at around $50, then again at around $65 and $85 - and only when I bought my last larger batch at $130 did my 'broker/advisor' approve at it being a wise purchase. Now, if I compare my prior un-wise decisions, versus the 'sanctioned' purchase, I believe you can see why I don't have much faith or trust in such 'professional' advice. Same reason why I am not really much worried over what I consider to be minor fluctuations during the present time - and certainly also the reason why AAPL keeps hoarding their profits, instead of paying dividends.
I'm playing a very, very long game here, and I'm waiting for several factors to assist in the stock rocketing up - specifically one or several momentum building events. Two of these have already happened - once, when Apple eclipsed Dell's market cap, and then recently, when Apple shot past IBM's market cap. In both of these cases, the market responded, mostly because this stuff is fickle, and almost entirely built on perception, i.e. emotions. There are two to three more such events that I'm waiting on to pass, including the Apple strategy from 3 years ago to continue to play out for at least 24 to 36 more months. Let's compare notes then - we should have a far more accurate idea of how AAPL is doing, then listening to kids in sandboxes pointing fingers, and chuckling to themselves.
Personally, I see the period over the next 6-8 months to be a good time to build up a healthy stock of AAPL, in preparation of what will be announced at the end of 2008, and the products, and global market expansion that is to follow. Again, most of you, and the so-called analysts, aren't seeing the big picture of what Apple is trying to achieve, and how it will succeed at it.
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Sexy Bangkok Girls
Posted on: 11:58 am on Feb. 10, 2008
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SidWenes
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Quote: from S M E G M A on 10:30 pm on Feb. 10, 2008
Any time you want a taste of my pedantry let me know. There is always more and I am always willing to dispense it.
Don't offers like this belong in the promotions section? 
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Thai Women : Meet Matured Thai Women
Posted on: 12:12 pm on Feb. 10, 2008
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thailife
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having made and lost money in the market over the course of many years, the 2 things I know for sure.................
Never predict
1) time
2) Price
However, one can have opinions... and my opinion is that Apple is a bargain at these levels... if you look at previous trading history, the stock always sold for around 50x trailing earnings.... until now.... and Daffy is right, the Apple haters always are first to tell you what is worng with the company..... and those are the same people that have missed to HUGE run in the stock.....
Funny how people look at the stock now and always calculate how far off it is form it's high, but fail to realize that over the past 2 years it has been a home run to many of us.
Now you have to understand that MSFT will take out Yahoo at almost any price, it is going to ugly. But MSFT will pay up for them. Now you take all the funds that own MSFT and Yahoo and now they only have MSFT as a % of their allocation. But they have all that cash now form the merger.... so where does it go? Especially the tech funds? Right back into tech.
It's the old story about less equity in the market as mergers take place but more cash.... more cash chasing less equity..... Don't forget Apple's hord of cash either..... huge cash position onthe balance sheet.....
Of course I am a bull onthe market and the U.S. dollar...
Most people are always late to the party, either going up or going down.
Here is a cut and paste from thaivisa which I read and enjoyed......
"Bernanke Makes Bulls From Dollar Bears Seeing Growth (Update3)
By Bo Nielsen
Feb. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Ben S. Bernanke's decision to lower interest rates 1.25 percentage points last month will end the dollar's two-year slide, according to the world's biggest currency traders.
For the first time since 2003, investors are focused on relative growth prospects rather than absolute borrowing costs, according to Geoffrey Yu, a London-based strategist with UBS AG, the No. 2 trader. The steepest cuts by a Federal Reserve chairman in seven years will support economic growth in the U.S. as Europe slows, said BNP Paribas SA, the most accurate currency forecaster Bloomberg tracks. The dollar will gain at least 9 percent against the euro this year, UBS and BNP predict.
``We're not chasing dollar weakness any lower,'' said Robert Robis, a fixed-income manager in New York at OppenheimerFunds Inc., which oversees $260 billion. ``The Fed's actions have avoided a long recession and we may start to see a recovery later this year.''
Robis has reduced the share of euro-denominated assets versus those linked to the dollar in his $9 billion portfolio. It now holds less than the benchmark index because he expects the U.S. currency to outperform. As recently as November, he was ``overweight'' the euro against the dollar.
Futures traders cut the value of contracts benefiting from a drop in the dollar to $13.9 billion as of Jan. 29, according to Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of America Corp., the second-largest U.S. bank by assets. That's down from a record $32.3 billion in November.
Yield Advantage
The dollar has gained 1 percent versus the euro to $1.4824 since sinking to an all-time low of $1.4967 on Nov. 23. The currency appreciated even as the yield advantage on a two-year German bund more than doubled to 1.28 percentage points over a comparable Treasury note, making bunds more appealing to international investors. The last time the spread was so large was 2002, when the euro surged 18 percent against the dollar.
Paris-based BNP, the most accurate of 31 firms surveyed about their currency predictions for the second half of 2007, is among the most bullish on the dollar in 2008 with its forecast of $1.36 per euro by yearend. Zurich-based UBS predicts $1.35. The median estimate calls for a 5.4 percent increase to $1.40 by the end of this year and a 6 percent gain to $1.32 in 2009. The dollar weakened 10.6 percent in 2007 and 11.4 percent in 2006 after strengthening 12.6 percent in 2005.
Fed Versus ECB
While two Fed cuts slashed the target rate for overnight loans between banks to 3 percent in nine days, the European Central Bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged at a seven-year high of 4 percent in an attempt to curb inflation. The ECB will keep rates unchanged at its Feb. 7 meeting, according to all 55 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
``If aggressive cuts by the Fed can stimulate the economy, then the U.S. will definitely lead the way in terms of economic recovery,'' Yu said. ``The ECB is behind the curve, so it's time to move back'' into the dollar, he said.
Deutsche Bank AG, the world's largest currency trader, predicts an 8 percent gain in the dollar this year as the euro- zone economy expands 1.6 percent, lagging behind the 1.9 percent growth projected for the U.S. For 2009, Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank puts growth at 2.6 percent in the U.S. and 1.9 percent in Europe.
Maxime Tessier, head of foreign exchange at Caisse de Depot et Placement in Montreal, isn't counting on Bernanke. It may be too late for lower borrowing costs to keep the U.S. out of a recession, he said. The Labor Department said Feb. 1 that payrolls fell by 17,000 in January, the first decline since August 2003.
2001 Reprisal
``From our vantage point it doesn't look very good and every week we re-evaluate the U.S. economy, it has deteriorated,'' said Tessier, whose firm manages $143 billion. ``It's too early to position your portfolio for a dollar rebound because a month from now the currency could be in rally mode, but it could also be a lot lower.''
The U.S. is entering the ``worst consumer recession since 1980,'' and the dollar will fall to $1.57 by the end of March before recovering to its current $1.48 by yearend, according to David Rosenberg, chief economist for North America in New York at Merrill Lynch & Co. The firm is the world's largest brokerage.
The dollar has benefited from Fed rate cuts before. During the first six months of 2001, the currency gained 10 percent against the euro as the central bank slashed its target 2.75 percentage points to below the ECB's benchmark refinance rate following the bursting of the technology bubble.
Foreign Holdings
``We still believe the U.S. promises good returns,'' Sultan bin Sulayem, the chairman of state-owned investment group Dubai World, said Jan. 25 at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Dubai World agreed in August to invest as much as $5.1 billion in Kirk Kerkorian's Las Vegas-based casino group MGM Mirage.
Middle Eastern and Asian investors have poured up to $39 billion into U.S. banks since August, according to Bloomberg calculations. Foreign holdings of U.S. securities rose a net $149.9 billion in November, the most in 22 months, the Treasury Department said last month in Washington. In October, the gain was $92.2 billion.
Investors say there are encouraging signs that business investment will hold up. Last week the House and Senate Finance Committees approved a fiscal stimulus package of as much as $157 billion proposed by President George W. Bush. The same day the Labor Department said the economy was shedding jobs, the Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index rose in January.
``A lot of the people are finding this is a good time to get back in the dollar,'' said Scott Ainsbury, a money manager who helps oversee $12 billion in currencies at FX Concepts Inc., a New York-based hedge fund.
To contact the reporters on this story: Bo Nielsen in New York at bnielsen4@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: February 4, 2008 07:49 EST "
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Bangkok Women : Meet Beautiful Thai Girls
Posted on: 12:23 pm on Feb. 10, 2008
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S M E G M A
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Quote: from SidWenes on 3:27 am on Feb. 11, 2008
Don't offers like this belong in the promotions section?
Wrong... again. Promotions section is for commercial services. My pedantry is free of charge. So EVEN YOU can benefit from it.
By the way, I am starting to think that after such a long time, you still havenīt got over your Enron loss as you keep mentioning it. Time to move on. Do not be bitter. You will have more chances... to be wrong and loose it once again.
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Attractive Thai Girls
Posted on: 1:04 pm on Feb. 10, 2008
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Mr Alan
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Quote: from thailife on 2:38 pm on Feb. 10, 2008
if you look at previous trading history, the stock always sold for around 50x trailing earnings...
That is a slight exaggeration. During the past 3 years it has traded from about 30 to 50 times PE ratio, but usually in the 30's. Before that it did briefly get up to 300, but that was because of serious earning shortfall that was short-lived (the stock price did not change much).
Given that the average PE for the S&P 500 is about 18, I would not count on any stock trading at 50 times PE for extended periods of time.
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Thai Girls : Meet Active Thai Girls
Posted on: 1:33 pm on Feb. 10, 2008
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thailife
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growth is king..... I would pay for trailing 50x times earnings all day long if the company can deliver..... if apple slows to suggested 16% growth, then a more reasonable price is to be expected.... I still believe they will do something with their cash to raise their growth rate back to historical levels.... too much cash, too many cheap company's to buy.....
good article here on apple, not that I agree with all of it, but still a decent read.....
http://www.smartmoney.com/stockscreen/index.cfm?story=20080129intro&nav=RSS20
Bu the way, I bought Apple around 80 well over a year ago, watched them smash eanrings qtr. after qtr.... one thing about growth stocks, rid ethem when they are hot, if they slip be careful, but never underestimate management to bring back growth.....
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Thai Women : Meet Matured Thai Women
Posted on: 1:45 pm on Feb. 10, 2008
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thailife
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I still don't have updated analysts numbers for next year, but here is a shot.... the average analysts perdictions for AAPL sept. 08 is $5.13 per share.... mulitply that by a PE of 30 and you get a $153 price.... for 09, they have them at $6.28 per share... let's keep the PE at 30 and you have a $188 stock.... that doe snot include any major moves with their cash.... and that is also saying APPL trades at a 30 PE...... yes, all guesses, but beats the shit out of stocks that lose money or are too large to grow earnings to any significant degree...... if apple does not make a move with their cash, they should distribute it to their shareholders as special dividends form time to time.....
Now that Yahoo turned down MSFT, things should get interesting..... Think of it this way, MSFT offered Yahoo 44 Billion... that's have the foreign reserves of Thailand... puts things into perspective......
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Attractive Thai Girls
Posted on: 1:57 pm on Feb. 10, 2008
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