| |
|
|
DaffyDuck
|
Wondering what it's all about:
http://events.apple.com.edgesuite.net/rtp20e92/event/
The link should work - it's the video stream of today's SBK event and Enterprise Software roadmap. It's kinda nice, if I want to understate the obvious.
Motorola's chief marketing executive seems to have resigned today (seriously!). I'm sure it's unrelated. 
|
Bangkok Women : Meet Sensual Bangkok Women
Posted on: 9:09 pm on Mar. 6, 2008
|
|
Mr Alan
|
Quote: from DaffyDuck on 11:24 pm on Mar. 6, 2008
Wondering what it's all about:
Nope. I don't give a Duck.
|
Thai Girls : Meet Sexy Thai Girls
Posted on: 12:04 am on Mar. 7, 2008
|
|
DaffyDuck
|
Exodus at Motorola. Now, nary 24 horus after the Chief Marketing manager quits, the very President of the Mobile Devices Business at Motorola is also seeking greener pastures.
Writing on the wall? iPhone fallout?
|
Bangkok Girls : Meet Sexy Bangkok Girls
Posted on: 12:13 am on Mar. 8, 2008
|
|
Buttman 007
|
With Apple shares hovering around $120/share, down nearly $80/share since the holidays, does anyone have an opinion as to where these shares are headed before summer 2008?
I'm sure in the long run, Apple (along with many other badly beaten tech stocks) will go up. But, in the short run (before July), does anyone see Apple making much movement above the $130 mark?
Just curious.
Personally, I think Apple will briefly hit $110/share on some day very soon, as the US stock market completely pukes all over itself. It's very close. Perhaps next week, or when another mortgage lender is forced to liquidate, or another staggering write-off by another major bank is revealed in the near future. Sometime soon, there will be a day of massive down volume, total capitulation in the US markets, washing out everyone that's still holding on. Total panic. Dow tanks 400 points. Apple hits $110, becoming the biggest tech bargain in years. It's very, very soon. The US stock market is teetering on a temporary collapse, with a very strong rebound to follow.
For the record, I think Apple will have tremendous success in the years to follow. They have such a small market share and continuously pump out new and exciting products, that the growth opportunity is enormous. And that's all Wall Street care about--growth. Even after a year, no company has yet produced a product with as much hype and innovative technology as the iphone. Even the skeptics have to admit, this was an extraordinary, unprecedented new product that will have a halo effect over the entire Apple brand.
So....Apple stock price before summer 2008? Any thoughts?
Buttman the Hedge Fund guru
|
Thai Women : Meet Matured Thai Women
Posted on: 1:46 am on Mar. 8, 2008
|
|
DaffyDuck
|
LOL - so, would that be the ButtFund?
I wouldn't really set any hopes for the July period, though I agree with your analysis (there's the word again) that there's a pretty good chance for Apple to drop further ($100-$110 seems about right), as the rest of the economy tanks (sorry, but Bush spouting off encouraging doesn't work as well as well as it did for Reagan). Currently, property and housing markets lead that charge (and there will be some great bargains in the next few years on that - but that's another thread).
The problem with your July outlook, is that Apple won't be releasing Firmware 2.0 until June, which in Apple Speak 'June' means 'June 30th', so any impact will really only START to be felt from July onwards. That and iPhone 2.0, along with the opening of the Asian markets with that product, will result in a growth spurt, and 'Wall Street' reacting positive to the growth spurts.
Here's how I see it:
We'll have continued bumps in the road, with the stock hovering around $120, and flirting with the $100-$110 mark in the next 3-4 months - Apple keeps announcing more stuff every week (a good strategy), but really, at this point, most eyes will be on:
- June (new iPhone Firmware 2.0)
- July (WWDC '08, along with what may be iPhone 2.0)
- Enterprise reaction to ActiveSync on iPhone (which has potentially huge impact).
Really, the first financial impacts won't be felt until the quarter past that, when sales figures for iPhone 2.0 will be released, when activations and iPhone adoption in Asia will start to yield numbers, and when the first quarter of app sales from the iPhone app store will be released.
You combine that with adoption figures from the Enterprise markets, as well as undoubtedly a growing marketshare in the US and worldwide smartphone market, and you will have the stock pick up momentum again.
This won't happen until August or September, though.
After that, we'll get the holiday 1-2-punch:
Initially:
- iPhone 2.0 big memory sells for $499
- iPhone 2.0 sml memory sells for $399
- iPhone 1.0 16gb will be reduced to $349 (or $299)
Before the holidays, Apple will additionally drop iPhone 1.0 8gb at $199 or $249 on the refurbished store, to clear inventory, resulting in all the models flying off the shelves.
Final result - Apple meets their 10 million iPhones target, and will most likely exceed it by a few million units. All the while, analysts keep re-adjusting their estimates upwards.
I think it's quite possible to be back in the $200 range by veterans day, though doubtful we'd be anywhere closer than $150 by memorial day, or over the summer. What could accelerate some of that would be if some highly visible corporations declare widespread adoption of iPhone.
Either way, in short, I'm waiting for the next drop, to dump another $20,000 into AAPL, and then sit it out further until 2009, and see what that brings (hint: compare to iPod strategy, condense to shorter time - once Apple dominates the high-end, they will target the mid-end and finally low-end mobile phone market).
...and that doesn't even take the Macs into the equation... 
PM me, and I can send you some great resources on what's to come... That's why I love the naysayers and idiots on this forum so much... I just sit back and smile...
|
Bangkok Women : Meet Beautiful Thai Girls
Posted on: 3:02 am on Mar. 8, 2008
|
|
Mel Gibson
|
maybe those natsayers bought AAPL at US$195 in January and now see the stock at US$122,,, can't blame them for being a bit cranky.
Even at US$122 APPL is at some 30 times profit. Admittedly the numbers are looking up, but 30 times proven profit is quite a risk.
Mel.
|
Bangkok Girls : Meet Attractive Thai Girls
Posted on: 3:35 am on Mar. 8, 2008
|
|
DaffyDuck
|
Quote: from Mel Gibson on 6:50 pm on Mar. 8, 2008
maybe those natsayers bought AAPL at US$195 in January and now see the stock at US$122,,, can't blame them for being a bit cranky
Well, any sort of stock/trading isn't really for folks on fixed income, or who lacking patience.
At the end of the day, stocks is more like 'religious gambling' than anything else, if you do it right. It's throwing shit on a wall, to see what sticks, if you do it wrong.
Let's see, though, regarding your argument - I last bought AAPL stock at $130, so, it would appear that I'm in dire straits, according to you. Thankfully, the larger chunks of stock I purchase prior to that at $13, $45, $65, and $85 more than make up the current shortfall. It's a true long term game, and not really a market for quick shots.
|
Thai Girls : Meet Active Thai Girls
Posted on: 12:24 pm on Mar. 8, 2008
|
|
Mr Alan
|
It is entirely appropriate that iDuck has recently been posting in this thread and the one on "Preaching pricks." Both threads deal with cults.
Now certainly, Apple is a fine company, and it makes fine products, but there are many, many people who attach a cult status to Apple, and this has driven the stock up way beyond any rational levels. The price has come down recently, but it has a ways to go downward before it reaches its true value.
Of course, when you dealing with a cult, it is impossible to rationally figure out what the members of that cult are going to do, so even talking about "true value" of the company is probably naive.
|
Thai Women : Meet Matured Thai Women
Posted on: 4:58 pm on Mar. 8, 2008
|
|
Buttman 007
|
Mr Alan
I respectfully disagree. While I do think there is a cultish element to the Apple brand, I think it has only a minimal influence over its stock price. These people camp out overnight by the stores, buy the products, swear by them and typically assume a "holier than thou" attitude about their gadgets. However, they have very little ability to move stock price.
The vast majority of all stock market movements, either as a whole, or among individual stocks, is the result of massive buying or liquidation by institutional investors, quant funds and hedge funds. Hundreds of millions of dollars worth of selling or buying every 30 minutes. The small retail investor---the Apple cultist--has no impact on price movement.
These funds have liquidated Apple to meet margin calls on other loser positions they have. Since Apple has produced such extraordinary returns, it is the logical stock to sell for them, locking in huge profits they have gained in the past 18 months to cover the various margin calls on other, unrelated loser positions. Most of the huge winners last year have been decimated: Google, Bidu, the solar sector, Chinese speculative plays.....on and on. None of these stocks have a cultish following like Apple, and have been decimated just the same.
Margin calls, locking in profits and perceived slower growth are the reasons these massive funds have liquidated their positions. Then, as the selling begins, the short sellers jump on. Suddenly, you've got a 40% decline in two months. This snowball effect has reached every corner of the market.
None of this has anything to do with the Apple cultist. They may dominate the blogs, but the stock price is dominated by the massive quants, hedgies and institutional buying/selling power.
Lastly, the true Apple cultist never sells his stock. He hangs on to his 50 or 100 or 1000 shares forever, because he is convinced it will make him a millionaire one day.
*Research provided by Buttmans Offshore Capital Management
|
Bangkok Girls : Meet Attractive Thai Girls
Posted on: 6:03 pm on Mar. 8, 2008
|
|
| |
|
