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FIB
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Again, it's entertaining to see Daffy concatenate bits and pieces from the major Apple rumor sites and pass them as his own wisdom...
But I agree the Asian market is not that much important for the iPhone yet. Apple's first attempt to get the iPhone to the European market severely underperformed and Apple's needs to get it right the second time. But that's one strength from Apple, learning from its past mistakes.
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Bangkok Women : Meet Sensual Bangkok Women
Posted on: 7:04 pm on June 8, 2008
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FIB
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Quote: from DaffyDuck on 6:13 am on June 9, 2008
Which isn't to say that there may not be a clever way to achieve what you and FIB seem to be wanting
Can't speak for Buttman, but I couldn't care less if Apple goes into multi-touch large screens and when nor have I ever suggested I cared... I corrected your erroneous reply to Buttman's suggestion of a multi-touch iMac. You making a fool of yourself by trying to fudge the matter and pretending you knew something about ergonomics followed. Case closed as far as I am concerned.
That said, I must admit I do see a common point between Steve and yourself: you both have a reality distorsion field. Pity that yours only affects yourself...
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Thai Girls : Meet Sexy Thai Girls
Posted on: 7:17 pm on June 8, 2008
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Buttman 007
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I think the 3G will be $499. Then there should be a second phone. The question is what the hell will that second phone be? Will it simply be the "old" phone with a lower price and a few new features? If so, it should be $299, with refurbished ones at $199 (as you suggest, as well). Or will it be an entirely new, cheaper version of the new 3G? If so, I'm guessing it would be $399. In truth, I have no idea. But it's reasonable that Apple will offer two phones, rather than one as they have for the last year. I think the AT&T subsidies won't arrive until near the holidays, after Apple sees how the 3G is selling. It seems pointless to offer sales incentives on something that isn't market tested yet. Plus, the 3G is enough of an incentive to stay with AT&T, which is why I like SNCR.
There is an article in today's Barron's publication that suggests manufacturing of the 3G is WAY behind schedule. Instead of several hundred thousand units waiting for distribution, there are only several thousand units available. I have no idea if this is true or not, but Barron's is generally very reliable. If this proves true, Apple stock could temporarily dip hard, and SNCR will fall back to $12.
I completely agree with how you think the session will unfold. Lot's of mind-blowing apps, and business-minded features. Apple wants the blackberry market.
All the Apple rumor sites have been talking about GPS for months. Here's a link from just yesterday suggesting a GPS leak:
http://dev.appleinsider.com/articles/08/06/07/3g_iphones_firmware_purportedly_leaked_hints_at_assisted_gps.html
Those images from Wired are amazing. Thanks for the link. I had never seen those before.
FIB--I think the only reason Europe didn't sell as well as expected was the missing 3G capability. That should all change now.
As far as Asia goes, I maintain my position. With a less expensive iphone, China is very important. Just a small percentage of Nokia's market share would be very substantial. That is too much business to ignore.
And I really have nothing more to offer on any of this that can't be found on all those rumor sites, various publications, and my general intuition. I have absolutely no inside connections.
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Sexy Bangkok Girls
Posted on: 7:36 pm on June 8, 2008
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FIB
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Quote: from Buttman 007 on 10:02 am on June 9, 2008
I think the only reason Europe didn't sell as well as expected was the missing 3G capability. That should all change now.
That, and the fact that the mobile market is differently structured in Europe in comparison with the US with operators in significantly different positions. Add also that Apple was less familiar with how to affect the usage models in Europe.
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Thai Women : Meet Matured Thai Women
Posted on: 8:00 pm on June 8, 2008
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DaffyDuck
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Quote: from Buttman 007 on 10:02 am on June 9, 2008
As far as Asia goes, I maintain my position. With a less expensive iphone, China is very important. Just a small percentage of Nokia's market share would be very substantial. That is too much business to ignore.
Again, look at how Apple has historically expanded a market -- Nokia's market share comes mainly from 'below $50' phones, which is a market that Apple is not interested for a long time (i.e. 3-5 years), mainly because of razor thin margins - Nokia's gig is volume, Apple's gig is profit points.
Every time I read some kid tossing how Apple will sell this or that 'at a loss' in order to gain market share, I have to laugh. A lot. Apple under Jobs has never sold anything 'at a loss', for any reason -- even when they dropped the price by $200 initially, from the original $599. Anyone who thinks that strategy was not already planned months in advance, is incredibly naive. At $399, Apple still makes their nearly 30 points -- and the whole purpose behind the original $599 price was two-fold: to create a high perceived value, and to lead all competitors astray. Everyone felt they were competing with a $600 phone, and thus did not feel like they needed to do much to compete (witness nearly 6 months of absolutely NOTHING from the competitors) - and the Apple dropped the price to $400, placing the phone in an entirely different category, and resulting in major scrambling from everyone -- it's brilliant, which is why I love that company!
But I digress - back to the topic at hand. Apple has no interest in competing in the sub-$50 handset market, but I do believe that at one point they will engage the sub-$200 market - bear in mind, what they will launch tomorrow is a new platform, with Apple generating revenue from their revamped online service, online Apps, and other online revenue sources -- the iPhone is just the entry point. Even if they released a product that the Chinese masses could afford, they could not afford (or want to use) the ancillary products that generate revenue for Apple -- Apple needs more affluent, but more importantly, more sophisticated consumers, with disposable income, for that -- and that's simply not in China. Yes, there's a lot of bozos with money, but most won't know how to use the App store, or use an online service. China is simply not a market that Apple needs, or even wants, right now, for that reason.
Korea, on the other hand, is MUCH more important to them, as is Japan.
Korea, as Apple has a minuscule market share there (and the iPhone may change that) and Japan... well, because they love Apple products, but the phone market is virtually impenetrable by non-Japanese products.
Quote: from Buttman 007 on 10:02 am on June 9, 2008
And I really have nothing more to offer on any of this that can't be found on all those rumor sights, various publications, and my general intuition. I have absolutely no inside connections.
Personal nitpick - it's 'sites'.
Web locations are destinations (i.e. 'sites'), not scenic outlooks (i.e. 'sights'). It's a far too common mistake, and one that simply drives me up the wall - especially when intelligent people make it (yes, that's a compliment) 
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Bangkok Women : Meet Beautiful Thai Girls
Posted on: 10:01 pm on June 8, 2008
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Buttman 007
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Indeed sites, not sights---I know that. I have no clue why my damn fingers typed that, and how that missed my nearly obsessive proof-reading. And I'm such a stickler about that sort of thing, as well. f***!
I feel appropriately chagrined, and will likely take a sword to one of my fingers as a self-administered punishment.
Bad Buttman!
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Attractive Thai Girls
Posted on: 10:31 pm on June 8, 2008
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DaffyDuck
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Quote: from Buttman 007 on 10:02 am on June 9, 2008
I think the 3G will be $499. Then there should be a second phone. The question is what the hell will that second phone be? Will it simply be the "old" phone with a lower price and a few new features? If so, it should be $299, with refurbished ones at $199 (as you suggest, as well). Or will it be an entirely new, cheaper version of the new 3G?
Consider, how would you make a 'cheaper' version of the 3G, without compromising what it is?
Apple is releasing the iPhone II globally - there are certain markets (Thailand comes to mind) that simply do not have 3G, and hence the features of a 3G iPhone would be wasted, and would only inflate the price unnecessarily.
Providing the classic iPhone, with a slimmer design, in the same visual styling as the new iPhone 3G (say, a black back, or some other obvious identifier, so the poseurs can clearly demonstrate having 'the new'), just without premium features, would perfectly bring in the rear, and provide in markets without 3G.
As such, I would even revise my figures upwards by having the low-end model remain at $399 (slimmer, more memory, with new features, and more battery life - same price), and positioning two 3G models at $499, and $599, with varying memory capacity. This would also allow Apple to create the normal three tiered pricing/model structure they like to maintain in their product lines.
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Thai Girls : Meet Active Thai Girls
Posted on: 11:08 pm on June 8, 2008
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Buttman 007
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I agree, Apple has no interest in the $100-or-less cell phone market. Similarly, Apple has no interest in selling 20 million phones to China per quarter as Nokia does.
I never argued that Apple wants to compete against Nokia for volume. I merely said that Apple would be interested in a small fraction of that market--the higher end phones.
5% of 80 million is still 4 million phones. China is such a gigantic market, that for Apple to steal just the slightest market share still yields millions of phones.
As I see it, the only flaw in my argument is that I don't know what percentage of total Nokia phones sold into China are in the medium or high-end range. Obviously, it's extremely low. I'm just assuming 5% for the sake of picking an extremely low number. On the flip side though, I'm just working off of Nokia's market, and haven't even considered Samsung or others. That adds more support toward my argument.
All things considered, and after having taken very conservative estimates, there are definitely several million phones sold into China that Apple should take a strong look at. Leave the 3G to Hong Kong, Macau and Beijing, and push the "older" iphone into the mainland.
I, too, do not believe for an instant that Apple would sell anything at a loss just to get market share. That business model belongs to Walmart, GM and others. Obviously, whoring out products is not Apple's style. If Apple completely turned their head away from 95% of China's market for Nokia and others to sell at loses or break-even margins, the remaining 5% could still be very lucrative. Even the smallest numbers are too big to ignore.
On a different topic, the original price of $600 per iphone in June 2007 was a great business decision. Apple is a business, not a charity. Even at that price, they had thousands of people camping outside their stores in the week before. Every company on the planet keeps their prices as high as demand will allow. That is the flawless beauty of the supply/demand dance. And Apple lost no customers in the process---the people that were pissed had already bought the phone.
To appear apologetic, Apple then hands out certificates to Apple stores. Brilliant! That gets all the pissed off people back in the Apple store to buy more Apple products. That whole episode was brilliant at every angle.
Some say it would cost Apple future business. I don't think so. Once you buy an Apple computer or iphone or just get a taste of Leopard, I think it's exceptionally difficult to ever go back to the "ugly" side.
Whatever happens tomorrow or in China, that Steve Jobs is nobody's fool.
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Thai Women : Meet Matured Thai Women
Posted on: 12:11 am on June 9, 2008
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DaffyDuck
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Quote: from Buttman 007 on 2:37 pm on June 9, 2008
Whatever happens tomorrow or in China, that Steve Jobs is nobody's fool.
On that, I think, we can wholeheartedly agree...
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Attractive Thai Girls
Posted on: 1:32 am on June 9, 2008
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