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FIB
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Quote: from DaffyDuck on 12:26 pm on June 9, 2008
Even if they released a product that the Chinese masses could afford, they could not afford (or want to use) the ancillary products that generate revenue for Apple -- Apple needs more affluent, but more importantly, more sophisticated consumers, with disposable income, for that -- and that's simply not in China. Yes, there's a lot of bozos with money, but most won't know how to use the App store, or use an online service. China is simply not a market that Apple needs, or even wants, right now, for that reason.
Hmmm... That's why they announced the iPhone in Mali and not in China then...
So what you didn't copy from a rumor site was just crap. How come I am not surprised...
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Thai Girls : Meet Sexy Thai Girls
Posted on: 7:59 pm on June 9, 2008
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DaffyDuck
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You need to stop taking yourself so seriously, buddy.
That being said, yes, there is only one single strategy behind their international rollout of iPhones -- and it's, of course, only the strategy you say it is. After all, you really know what you are talking about - being the sole purveyor of truth.
Boy, will this be fun revisiting this in 60 days.
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Bangkok Women : Meet Sensual Bangkok Women
Posted on: 10:23 pm on June 9, 2008
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FIB
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Or just after the deal with China will have been announced. Until then, I'll just continue having fun without waiting for you... 
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Thai Girls : Meet Sexy Thai Girls
Posted on: 10:53 pm on June 9, 2008
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Buttman 007
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There are two reasons why China has not been included, YET. IMO.
First, Apple and the Chinese carriers have not come to an agreement on subsidies necessary for the $199 price. It is absolutely NOT because Apple thinks the Chinese market is irrelevant, especially now that the iphone is priced for volume.
C'mon!-- Does anyone actually think Apple is more focused on the development of the African market rather than the Chinese market, now that the iphone business strategy squarely hinges on volume?
Secondly and probably more importantly, the fact that Apple will not begin selling the 3G for another month is very suspicious. It lends more credibility to the rumors of issues within the manufacturing and supply chain of the new 3G. Keep in mind, Apple basically has been out of the iphone market for two months. Why add another month of zero iphone sales unless manufacturing of the 3G has been unexpectedly slow? Apple certainly can't come to the world market and run out of 3G's in two days, and then tell everyone it'll be another month before the next significant batch arrives. That would cause major headlines and lots of derogatory press. Instead, they simply postpone the release until enough iphones are in warehouses to remotely match initial demand.
Assuming there is a manufacturing problem, it makes perfect sense that Apple would hold off on the millions of iphones it could sell to China, simply because Apple currently can't manufacture as many iphones to support the demand of 70 countries. The Chinese market would be an overwhelming drain on supply in these first few months when the 3G is released.
With a price of $199, I predict Apple to have severe shortages and issues within the supply-chain for several months. This gives Apple more time to negotiate exactly want they want from the Chinese carriers. If Apple did have a contract with a Chinese carrier, I would assume Apple would suddenly have a SEVERE supply problem.
I'm sure there is a very intricate, and complicated negotiation strategy going on behind the scenes between China and Apple that is completely under wraps. And until the 3G actually hits the marketplace and supply matches demand, it really doesn't matter. Moreover, it would be difficult for me to fathom that Apple would open their first Apple store in Beijing later this summer and be indifferent about the Chinese iphone market for any length of time.
Until then, the absence of China is likely due to an impasse in subsidy-negotiation and supply issues. Again, it has NOTHING to do with Apple finding the Chinese market irrelevant, insignificant or, in any way, unimportant. Especially when compared to the Mali market.
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For the record, I sold half my Apple position today because I initially saw Apple falling hard due to the delay in the 3G release (suggesting manufacturing problems), and because of the huge price cut. At one point, Apple fell to $175 before rebounding quite a bit. Nonetheless, the stock sold off today, and I was temporary convinced I could get back into Apple at a significantly lower price--perhaps $10-$15 cheaper. Additionally, AT&T was selling off, as was SNCR. It all added to a temporary sell-signal for me. I still don't know why SNCR sold off--unless it is speculated that their margins will be squeezed in conjunction with the AT&T subsidies,. Otherwise, I would think SNCR should sky-rocket over the next 6 months. So I bailed out of everything until I could figure out what was going on.
If Apple holds firm around $180 tomorrow, I will likely get right back in. I am certain that if everything goes smoothly in the next six months with the 3G, that Apple will go to $250/share by next summer.
Regardless if Apple dips for a day or a week, they are headed for unprecedented growth in the coming years across their entire brand. With 3G's at $199, everyone will be headed to Apple stores. The halo effect over Macs and iTunes will be huge. Palm is dead. And RIMM (yes, I spell it with two M's, because that's the Nasdaq ticker symbol) should be extremely frightened.
This is brilliant. This completely f***s-over all other brands, and their medium to high-end phone offerings. No brand will be able to compete against this. For $199, who the hell would buy any other phone other than the 3G?
This is the marketing equivalent of pulling a rabbit out of a hat. All the other cell-phone manufacturers are infinitely more screwed today, than they were yesterday. Daffy was right when he suggested that Apple convinced the entire market that the iphone was a $400-$500 product, and thereby not a particularly great threat or concern against their market share. Apple purposely kept the iphone price high for the first year while they fine-tuned the product. Now with a proven and amazing product, they drop the price by 50% and completely crush the unsuspecting competition. Brilliant. f***ing brilliant.
By summer of 2009, everyone will be entrenched in the Apple brand. This is the springboard that launches Apple into an era of unprecedented growth. It will be akin to the Microsoft growth of the 1990's.
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Sexy Bangkok Girls
Posted on: 11:54 pm on June 9, 2008
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DaffyDuck
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Quote: from Buttman 007 on 2:20 pm on June 10, 2008
I still don't know why SNCR sold off--unless it is speculated that their margins will be squeezed in conjunction with the AT&T subsidies
Dude, you yourself gave that answer earlier in the thread - you expected that SNCR would rebound because of all the new activations that will go through iTunes -- as it stands, the 3G won't be activated via iTunes, but directly in the stores - meaning SNCR is out of a job, permanently - or at least that's the perception of those selling off in a frenzy, I would think.
I'm glad I didn't get into it, as I planned, but I may pick up a few once it hits rock bottom - I have a feeling activations through the stores might still be handled via SNCR in the future, in which case it ought to rebound nicely.
Big speculation on that last part, though.
The absence of China is more likely due to simply China Mobile thinking they can yank Apple around, like an USA business - threatening to drag their feet, to 'motivate' the gyalo (however it's spelled) to come around to offer more, or bend over more... except Apple doesn't play that. They are very capable of walking away from table (as Steve Jobs has been known to do effectively in the past, with another business) - China Mobile has more to lose (face) than Apple does in this case.
By effectively bringing every single market around China online (including picking Hutchison, a Dutch brand, for Hong Kong and Macau), it will effectively make China Mobile isolated, at one point, as iPhone 3G becomes more popular everywhere, except China, China Mobile will feel more pressure to engage in a deal, and will be forced to engage Apple, instead of the other way around.
China Mobile most likely felt they are in a secure position with all the unlocked iPhones on their network, thinking they need no deal with Apple - they already have the iPhone users. Of course, those users are now orphaned with firmware v1.1.4, and will likewise start exerting pressure on China Mobile because they will want the newest toy and software.
It's actually a very smart strategy, I believe, to let both external forces, and customer forces force China Mobile to negotiate - heck, all it needs is for a couple of Chinese government Hi-So poseurs to want the new phone, and not being able to run the new firmware on China Mobile, for pressure to start... All Apple has to do, is make sure Mali and Ghana have the iPhone 
Not sure how the HK roaming agreements to the mainland work, though I suspect we may see a brisk greymarket extend from Hong Kong to mainland... Good for Hutch, I guess
Lastly, I doubt very much the month delay has much to do with manufacturing problems - it's most likely a combination of Apple majorly building up hype and making July 11th, thus, an event... which sells more iPhones, and building up a large enough stock to accommodate the expected sales - as well as the need to fine tune and polish firmware 2.0.
I mean, those 188 containers that arrived with 'electrical computers' didn't just contain headphones.... I suspect a vast number of 3G iPhones is already on our shores.
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Thai Women : Meet Matured Thai Women
Posted on: 12:53 am on June 10, 2008
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Buttman 007
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I'm a bit concerned about the ipod.
If the a 3G iphone is $199, won't that severely cannibalize the market for the ipod Touch?
Apple must be planning something significant for the ipod very soon.
Any ideas?
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Bangkok Women : Meet Beautiful Thai Girls
Posted on: 2:34 am on June 10, 2008
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snpark
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New Apple iPhone ‘free’ on £45 contract
As expected, Apple yesterday unveiled a new version of the iPhone which boasts faster internet access and will sell for as little as $199, or about £100 – half the price of the current model. According to Reuters, shares in Apple dropped by 2.2 per cent after Chief Executive Steve Jobs indicated that the company was targeting the mass market with the new cut-price device. O2, which is distributing the new iPhone in the UK, revealed this morning that the device would be “free” on a £45 a month contract. Apart from its price, chief among the new iPhone’s attractions are improved e-mail facilities, intended to tempt business users away from the BlackBerry, and the ability to run on faster networks, which means it loads web pages up to 2.8 times faster than the comparatively sluggish original. Said an enthusiastic Jobs: "It's amazingly zippy."
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Attractive Thai Girls
Posted on: 5:28 am on June 10, 2008
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snpark
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hahahahaha ooooppss!
According to Reuters, shares in Apple dropped by 2.2 per cent after Chief Executive Steve Jobs indicated that the company was targeting the mass market with the new cut-price device
now is a time to buy even more of the stock then?
the poor mans iphone?
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Thai Girls : Meet Active Thai Girls
Posted on: 5:30 am on June 10, 2008
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snpark
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HP launches new touch-screen PCs
Hewlett-Packard, the world’s biggest computer maker, has sounded the death knell for the traditional keyboard and mouse with the announcement of a new generation of touch-screen PCs. The TouchSmart All-in-One allows users to work with photos, music, video, the internet and television by tapping or swiping the screen, and will be priced at $1,299 (£663), HP announced at today’s Berlin launch. The group's Executive Vice President, Todd Bradley, told Reuters that HP was aiming to set a trend and create a new market. "We don't think about this as a niche. We think about it as a global product that will inspire demand and drive desirability," said Bradley. "Our ability to lead is very important." Bradley refused to speculate on what the impact would be of making such technology more widespread, and denied that HP was following Apple, which yesterday announced a new version of its touch-screen iPhone.
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Thai Women : Meet Matured Thai Women
Posted on: 5:31 am on June 10, 2008
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DaffyDuck
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Oh yeah, hp is certainly not whoring for buzzwords.... not at all.
Whoops, another clueless analyst (they should downgrade RIM, not Nokia -- Nokia will be fine for a while, as it has a diverse portfolio of phones, especially the low-end ones, to keep it in the black - RIM entirely relies on smartphones, and Apple increasingly targets them -- and they can not compete with $199 iPhones.
Analyst downgrades Nokia after iPhone 3G
Nokia shares are no longer recommended after the launch of the iPhone 3G, analysts at American Technology Research said late yesterday. Experts at the financial group dropped their valuation for Nokia from Buy to Neutral in the belief that a raft of "third-generation smart-phone introductions" due for the second half of 2008 and early 2009 are liable to hurt Nokia without clear signs that it can match the same pace. The smartphone industry is increasingly competitive and puts added pressure on the Finnish company, which leads the world smartphone market.
"While [its] valuation is attractive and sentiment low, we do not recommend new money until we get a competitive response from Nokia," AmTech says.
In addition to the impending release of the Apple handset, RIM will improve its own standing in the market with the BlackBerry Bold and potentially the Thunder. HTC in turn is overhauling its touchscreen line with the Touch Diamond and Touch Pro.
Nokia has already said it plans to bolster its line with the N96 media phone as well as two Eseries phones that all compete in similar categories, but has raised concerns over its unusually high pricing for the confirmed N96. The phone will cost about $800 before taxes or carrier discounts and may sit outside the reach of more customers; no US plans have been announced, though the N95 is sold strictly as a full-price unlocked model. The iPhone, Bold, and Touch phones will be priced at or below $300 for a subsidized version.
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Attractive Thai Girls
Posted on: 7:41 am on June 10, 2008
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