| |
ThaidUp
|
Quote: from scobie on 10:14 am on Jan. 23, 2006
According to this week's Economist, the baht is still weaker now than it was a year ago, when it averaged around 38.5 in January 2005.
Is it really worth worrying over a baht or two?
Well that depends if you are on a two week vacation then no, but if you live here and get paid based in USD then that would equate to a 5% reduction along with a 6% inflation rate for last year is >10% in spending power.
I heard the Chang Beer tastes good.
But in any event it is just a matter of time before the baht goes down again. Travel into the Kingdom did not meet exoectations, but in the next couple of years 30 new hotels will be built with excess of 10000 rooms.
High-end condo projects are in process and/or planned with looking to the slow down in purchases of these units.
With interest rates moving up this will increase the Thai's mortagage payments that are tied to these rates. This coupled with increased gas cost on already high credit card loans will decrease the consumer consumption growth in Thailand.
So I think the THB will eventually settle out at a 45THB/USD then I can go back to drinking good booze.
|
Thai Girls : Meet Sexy Thai Girls
Posted on: 8:50 pm on Jan. 22, 2006
|
|
China Sailor
|
Well the Taksin/Shin drama is over. From the Jan. 24 issue of the Today paper from Singapore:
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Temasek unbinds Shin for Thaksin
Temasek-led team buys 49.6 per cent of Thailand’s Shin Corp for $3 billion
AFTER years of coming under fire for supposed cronyism, Thailand’s top man seems to have found a way to silence some of his opponents. In a widely-anticipated announcement yesterday, Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s family-run business, Shin Corp, finally confirmed weeks of speculation that the owners are offloading their 49.6-per-cent stake to a consortium led by Singapore investment firm Temasek Holdings.
For 73.3 billion baht ($3.04 billion), the chunk of 1.488 billion shares will go to Temasek, Siam Commercial Bank and several unnamed investors grouped under an entity known as Kularb Kaew. “My children made the decision to sell Shin because they want their father to focus on politics and to avoid public criticism about conflicts of interest,” AFP quoted Dr Thaksin, 56, as saying in Bangkok yesterday, adding that he chose Temasek over other suitors.
Just before Dr Thaksin entered politics in 1994, he relinquished his posts in Shin and transferred his shares to his children and relatives. But his opponents have continued to accuse him of crafting national policies that benefit the family-run business. By selling the stake to the Temasek-led consortium, the Shinawatras and their in-laws — the Damapong family — will no longer have ties to Shin, which was founded as a computer dealership in 1983. The past 23 years have seen the company expanding, with its jewel being the 43-per-cent owned Advanced Info Service (AIS), Thailand’s top mobile service provider.
Shin’s chairman, a member of the Damapong family, will be replaced by Mr Pong Sarasin, who has been chairman of DBS Thai Danu Bank since 2002. He was also Thailand’s deputy prime minister between 1986 and 1990. “This investment is purely on a commercial basis,” Temasek’s managing director of investments S Iswaran said during a conference call with Singapore reporters yesterday. “Thailand has strong prospects for economic growth and exciting opportunities in the telecommunications sector.”
Under the deal, Temasek’s wholly-owned unit, Aspen Holdings, will buy 11 per cent of Shin, while Cedar Holdings — which is 49-per-cent held by Temasek — is purchasing a 38.6-per-cent stake. That would work out to Temasek owning about 29.9 per cent of Shin, but Mr Iswaran said the actual stake comes up to more than that because Temasek also makes up half of the Kularb Kaew group. Still, Shin will remain a company majority-owned by Thais, Temasek said.
According to Mr Greg Pau, Standard & Poor’s director of risk solutions, Temasek’s acquisitions of Shin and of several Chinese lenders — such as China Construction Bank recently — is leading Temasek closer to its stated target of diversifying its portfolio equally among entities in Singapore, emerging Asia and countries under the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
The composition would be 44 per cent, 30 per cent, and 26 per cent, respectively, according to calculations by Mr Pau, who is maintaining his triple-A rating on Temasek bonds. His estimate includes the projected success of Cedar and Aspen’s upcoming offer for the remaining Shin shares that they do not own. They are also required by Thai laws to make a general offer for AIS shares that Shin does not already own. Last March, Temasek’s portfolio was 49 per cent in Singapore, 21 per cent in emerging Asia and 30 per cent in OECD countries, Mr Pau told TODAY.
When asked if Temasek planned to transfer or sell the AIS stake to SingTel — which is 62-per-cent owned by Temasek and which currently holds 21.4 per cent of AIS — Mr Iswaran said no such plans were in place as of now. “Temasek makes investment decisions independent of the Temasek-linked companies,” he said. On the other hand, SingTel “would like to increase our stake in the associates at the right price and terms and we will continue to explore all options”, said spokesman Peter Heng. Mr Iswaran said an AIS sale to SingTel would happen only if Shin’s management made such a proposal.
Apart from AIS, Shin also owns Shin Satellite, television broadcaster iTV, Internet provider CS Loxinfo, and 51 per cent of Thai AirAsia, a budget carrier venture.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Hopefully now both the Baht and the Singapore Dollar can return to normal rates...
|
Bangkok Women : Meet Sensual Bangkok Women
Posted on: 7:26 am on Jan. 24, 2006
|
|
Oaktoad
|
the question is what are normal rates??
I think 45 is wishful thinking, but 41-42 seems to have been a pretty normal trading range over the last few years..
On the other hand based on the big mac index, the baht is way undervalued..
however, the big mac index does overlook minor things like
1. big macs in the usa are bigger
2. rents are much lower
3. help is much less expensive
so not sure just how good that index is..
As I spend over US$20K a year in Bkk, I sure would like to see a higher dollar, but with the wild ass spending in the USA, that is not too likely in the next few years..
holders of the Euro and Yen might be in better shape..
for those that can do it, you might consider getting Euros and holding them in a savings account, assuming you don't get hosed on the exchange rate going in.
|
Thai Girls : Meet Sexy Thai Girls
Posted on: 9:28 am on Jan. 24, 2006
|
|
Gyaos
|
Look at the short term interest rates and inflation for the USA. I don't think a dollar bear is coming. The dollar is having sharp drops because of speculation wanting to jump away from Bush Jr and the spending, but with oil above $40.00., cough, I mean $67.00, core inflation is really here and only the media claims it isn't. Core inflation is the price of goods less food and oil. Don't buy into "core inflation" at low, sustained levels when oil is high and food rises.
The US Dollar is 39.40 baht from the 40's because Thailand raised is short term interest rate. The US will be rasing much higher than a "measured pace" in 2006, no doubt about it. I see the Dollar rising back to 120 yen and 42 baht. Against the yen, Japan is still in deflation, a huge stock market crash, pumping cash into the economy and their interest rates are 0.15%. With the US interest rate going up to 4.75% (I claim it will go to 6% during an Iran crisis), the US Dollar will be a bull. It has too, because oil is just way too high because of Iran speculation, not China and India.
But against the Euro and Pound, the US Dollar is being stymied by the US and John Snow. If America votes Dems in 2006 Bush Jr will be impeached in 2007.
Gyaos.
|
Bangkok Girls : Meet Sexy Bangkok Girls
Posted on: 8:44 pm on Jan. 24, 2006
|
|
ThaidUp
|
The baht went up because of the huge influx of dollars > 2B USD for the Sing company to buy the communication companies from No Thanks. Let see how long the Shin's keep there cash in the Thai baht and in country? My guess not too long and soon you will see a mass movement of their money to other countries.
|
Thai Women : Meet Matured Thai Women
Posted on: 8:56 pm on Jan. 24, 2006
|
|
shoke
|
Thailand's fundamentals right now are -
- inflation circa 6% but price controls on some basic goods (such as pork) mean the reported rate is artificially low
- prospective continued inflation with ongoing oil price appreciation, higher rentals, emerging labor shortages etc.
- interest rates on deposits circa 3%
Holding Thai baht cash therefore means a loss of purchasing power over time. This usually means people want to get out of the cash currency to preserve their purchasing power. They move either into real assets benefitting from inflation (especially gold right now) or into other currencies better protecting purchasing power.
Overall, this is not a scenario for a strong Thai baht, being a currency with a negative real rate of return. Real assets, especially commodities and gold, are beneficiaries. Currencies perceived as being better managed will also, over time, appreciate as the flight to quality continues.
|
Bangkok Women : Meet Beautiful Thai Girls
Posted on: 9:51 pm on Jan. 24, 2006
|
|
Gyaos
|
You have to look at short-term interest rates. Thailand it is 4.25%. USA is also 4.25%. But, as I predicted, inflation is jumping in the USA, so the US will raise short term interest rates to 4.5% in 4 days. And in March to 4.75%, while the interest rates in Thailand will not be raised further. This is what will cause a much stronger US Dollar. If Thailand goes into recession before the US does, Thailand will have to lower those rates, pump cash into the economy and that will further strengthen the US Dollar. Or an even better idea is to "intervene", by buying up US Dollars and print more Baht to do it. That also strengthens the US Dollar.
The rise and fall of currencies comes from how banks and investors pump into each currency to get rates of return. Interest rates is what they look for. The strength or weakening of the currency is by how much currency is out there. Much more that $2B.
The US Dollar is strongest by its interest rates at the peak of a booming economy and they are going to go up, up UP! I predict 6% interest rates for the USA with $67+ oil. No doubt about it. The "measured pace" argument is to get ready for a big jump later on. This will create a sustained 120 yen throughout 2006 (which is perfect for Japan and the US, although the true value is 150 yen.....since when should Japan be so "expensive" anyway, since Ronald Reagan) and 42 baht in Thailand, which is good (44 would be best at a sustained level.....lower cost exports for Thailand boosting the economy).
The Canadian Dollar, BTW, is tied to the price of oil, that needs to drop substantially. $1.44 CAD per $1 USD is ideal. $1.60 is wonderful! With the Tories in the minority, I see the CAD weakening big in the autumn (1.14 -> 1.27). If that happens, then, at least, I can get a hand job in Canada.
Gyaos
|
Bangkok Girls : Meet Attractive Thai Girls
Posted on: 1:32 pm on Jan. 27, 2006
|
|
Oaktoad
|
getting off topic, but better chance of parity between the US$ and C$ than 1.60.. esp in the nearer term (next year or two)
I sure hope that the baht heads back down.. but depends for this year if Taksin can get the 6% growth that he is forecasting..
if he gets that, there will continue to be inflows into Thailand for investing and that will tend to keep the baht stronger..
but, my hope is for 42 by April 17
|
Thai Girls : Meet Active Thai Girls
Posted on: 3:44 pm on Jan. 27, 2006
|
|
Broken Leg
|
Quote: from Gyaos on 3:19 am on Jan. 28, 2006
The rise and fall of currencies comes from how banks and investors pump into each currency to get rates of return. Interest rates is what they look for. The strength or weakening of the currency is by how much currency is out there. Much more that $2B.
You're suggesting currency fluctuations are just based on carry trades, come off it. Yeah they can have an influence but ultimately currency fluctuations are based on how much is bought or sold of a currency for every reason, it's that simple, currencies have no true value or level.
as for the fundamentals thats just the shit they make up to give economists jobs. 
|
Thai Women : Meet Matured Thai Women
Posted on: 11:25 pm on Jan. 27, 2006
|
|
whitespider
|
I have added a "real time" currency converter to my website and put Thai Baht at the top so its easy to use for this purpose. It shows "mid-prices" so you will probably get a little more or less on purchase/sale but I have noticed the mid-price to be pretty close to the rate offered at the banks/bureaus in Bangkok.
I have watched the £GB slip a little again in the last few days, but bear in mind it was only 59 to the pound 5 years ago so even at 68 its still pretty good.
The converter is here and is hopefully useful and worth a bookmark
http://www.financial-index.co.uk/currency-converter.htm
|
Bangkok Girls : Meet Attractive Thai Girls
Posted on: 2:36 pm on Feb. 26, 2006
|
|
| |
|
