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DaffyDuck
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Quote: from thailife on 1:17 am on April 25, 2009
That is my target on the low side, I actually think AAPL will trade up towrd historical averages, maybe we can get a 40 PE out of it, that would give us $240 on the high side.
Beware my friends, if we have any type of recovery, AAPL will soar and make you a lot of money.
Yep -- I wonder how all the guys belittling AAPL have been doing --- oh, wait, they haven't actually been doing anything except talking, so I guess that's where they are at.
Seriously, I agree -- hoarding AAPL now is good in the short term (i.e. it might experience a temporary spike when Steve Jobs takes the stage at WWDC, and it is poised for long term growth - as the economy recovers, it will explode upwards.
Thanks for the analysis.
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Thai Girls : Meet Sexy Thai Girls
Posted on: 7:39 pm on April 24, 2009
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thailife
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DD, I really believe AAPL will hit the numbers I posted. The only risk is if we go into a double dip recession. That would hurt Christmas sales.
But I have 2 theories about future revenue.
1) Apple has become a company that produces a product based on a platform that has built a user base that does not want to migrate to other techonolgies or brands. This is always a risk but Apple has done a great job in gaining customers and keeping them. The next growth period of the company will be over the next 10 years as collage aged kids enter the workforce. They use Mac's, not PC's. Do a little research and you will see the vast majority of kids use Mac's. Once they get older, Apple will have a whole new base of consumers loyal to them and this will revive the Mac and be a whole new area of revenue growth for Apple.
Many people will say that this is already overdue, but nothing is really coming out of Microsoft to tell me anything different.
2) The price of the whole Itunes family is so low that it may in fact be recession proof. The same way we treat our cell phones, the Apple suite has become an accepted and needed product for the masses as opposed to a luxery.
The price point they are working towards makes the products easy to sell, even easier to push-pull through the upgrade cycle.
So all this means that revenue growth and margin expansion is plain as day for those that choose to look. Forge tthe arguements about what is better, works faster, etc. This is all about footprint and upgrades and margin expansion.
Another way to calculate future expected stock price is through growth rate. Apple has been unfairly punished as everyone thought last year's Christmas sales would suffer. For the reasons I gave above they didn't. This is why they suprised to the upside and now analysts are revising their estimates to the upside for future earnings. Plus $25 a share in cash is a bigger issue than you can imagine.
I will always invest in a company that continues to suprise to the upside. The street will always chase a stock like that and they will always pay a premium (in terms of P/E multiple) for a company like that. So this is why I can place a higher P/E on Apple as opposed to other company's that simply do not have the growth.
Sorr, no spell check.
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Bangkok Women : Meet Sensual Bangkok Women
Posted on: 12:23 pm on May 1, 2009
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DaffyDuck
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Agreed - and precisely for the reasons you outlined, companies like RIM, Motorola, and even Palm will see themselves struggling (or tanking), while Apple has forged a solid supporting ecosystem with their expanding customer base, to forge ahead and remain successful...
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Thai Girls : Meet Sexy Thai Girls
Posted on: 12:13 am on May 2, 2009
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snpark
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duck are u still selling 16gb white 3g iphones?
or is mbk still the best
a friend in jakarta wants one but unlocked etc etc
thanks
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Sexy Bangkok Girls
Posted on: 3:18 am on May 2, 2009
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DaffyDuck
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Your friend can get them, legitimately unlocked by Apple, directly from TRUE - ditto with the local carrier in Hong Kong, for example. With the iPhone 3G available fully unlocked from Apple in the local markets, there is little incentive to go to mbk.
That's where I plan on picking up my next iPhone, after June 8th - from TRUE, in the unlocked version.
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Thai Women : Meet Matured Thai Women
Posted on: 11:50 am on May 2, 2009
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snpark
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yes but I said she is in jakarta
mbk they are 24,500 for 16mb 3g in white or black, unlocked etc, firts price (ie knock off another 1500 after haggling etc)
didnt know if you had supplies
anyway ok thanks
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Bangkok Women : Meet Beautiful Thai Girls
Posted on: 2:07 am on May 3, 2009
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DaffyDuck
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Quote: from snpark on 2:07 pm on May 3, 2009
mbk they are 24,500 for 16mb 3g in white or black, unlocked etc, firts price (ie knock off another 1500 after haggling etc)
Just make sure they actually are GENUINELY unlocked, and not hacked -- the later won't survive a system update, and with iPhone 3.0 around the corner, that is an important consideration.
Most likely, if at MBK, they are hacked -- better make sure they are 'Apple Unlocked'.
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Attractive Thai Girls
Posted on: 12:17 am on May 4, 2009
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snpark
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ok cheers
most of the girls etc who want them arent tech savvy enough to worry about software updates, they just like to pose with them etc
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Thai Girls : Meet Active Thai Girls
Posted on: 9:38 am on May 4, 2009
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DaffyDuck
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Quote: from snpark on 9:38 pm on May 4, 2009
ok cheers
most of the girls etc who want them arent tech savvy enough to worry about software updates, they just like to pose with them etc
Oh, okay - and that absolves you from doing a decent job, of course.
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Thai Women : Meet Matured Thai Women
Posted on: 3:43 pm on May 4, 2009
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snpark
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doing a decent job?? well if I buy her an iphone, isnt that enough?
or if I buy her a car, does she expect me to replace the engine every 6mths when there is absolutely nothing wrong with the first one?
as long as it works well enough for her capabilities, then its fine
she needs to call, email, text and ponce around with the tilty slidy camera, like every other bargirl
if she needed to upload pdf files and create xl spreadsheets while on a 4 way video conference call, I would get her a blackberry
same as the car - if she is driving to soi cowboy, she needs a honda, if she is racing lewis hamilton, I might upgrade the suspension and engine
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Bangkok Girls : Meet Attractive Thai Girls
Posted on: 12:55 am on May 5, 2009
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